"Going Pro:" Is There Such A Thing? Opinions Wanted

Hi All: First time poster, student of the tournament game and have enjoyed the wisdom posted on this board. (Thanks Ken Smith and all regular posters for the great resource you provide...) As for me, let's say I currently play more rounds of casino blackjack than in tournaments but that could change.

Thus my questions, which are aimed especially at those who may be making money at this, whether it be FT or (decent) PT income:

Q1: How much of a player's tournament success would you say comes down to luck and how much to skill? Is it 50/50? 80/20? 99/1? Can skill really make tournament play winable on a consistent basis?

Q2: With the new opportunities (WSOB, UBT, etc.) and growing popularity, are there real consistent income possibilities for a serious player?

Q3: Is it wise to play as many tournaments as possible to improve skills and to improve chances for wins? i.e. Do more entry fees translate to more wins?

Thanks for any and all comments. Good Cards--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)

 

1) This question will vary from player to player that you ask, but I feel LUCK is the biggest factor in winning. Now I also feel that a Knowlegable player (season tournament player) has a better chance to advance (and normally does), but when you start getting into the semifinals and finals anyone can win if your getting the cards. I couldn't give you an exact percentage, I think you have your luck sometimes and being knowlegable helps in the preperation of getting lucky.

2) I think so "IF" they are sponsored, right now the overhead would eat you up if you weren't. Even the poker players (the big ones count on sponsorship money).

3) It's a numbers game, so I would have to say yes to that one.

But to answer your question "Is there any Pro Tournament Blackjack Players", I would say no at this time, but lets see how UBT develops, maybe by this time next year we will have some.

 

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due

You know I always get a good chuckle out of the players that swear that overall success in a blackjack tournament is all luck.

Yet these same players moan and groan when a well known accomplished ( Pro) if I may player is assigned to their table especially when this player sits to their immediate left.

Well if its all luck why do you care who is sitting at your table or where they are sitting. :joker:

There are not many players that can play with a long term edge in this game but trust me they do exists.



I rest my case.



Joep

 

I refer you to an earlier post.

I posted a lengthy and largely ignored post about making a living from TBJ a month or so ago. I had been reading about "professional " internet poker players who alledgedly could earn a crust just playing online. My hypothesis was that it may be possible in the future for online TBJ players to earn a living like that also. One of the conclusions I came to was that there simply wasn't enough play online to support a good income. However maybe UB has given us a glimpse of the future...

On another note how many "professional" regular AP blackjack players are there? A very small number I think. Figures I've seen quoted suggest that less that less than 1% of players who try to play AP can actually carry it off successfully. Out of those how many actually make a living out of it? 1% of 1%? Just a guess but whatever the numbers are I suggest that they are exceptionally small.

Link to previous post: http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1940

Cheers

Reachy

 

luck vs skill

Humble opinion:

95% luck, 5% arithmetic skills on last 5 hands.

(assuming one knows basic strategy)

 

Bj Pros

Reachy: Your previous post was not mostly ignorned. Look at viewings.

It's just that of the two camps of replies, those that do, don't, won't, can't really tell you. And those that don't, don't know what to tell you.

So, those that don't know fund their forays into tourneys or casino adventures through other means of income, most of it more inteligent than gambling. And their once in a lifetime achievement at taking a chance fuels the remainder of their attempts both psychologically and monetarily, until one or both are spent. Your analysis of on line attempts, hours played, money won at various prize pools shows the basic futility of attempting such a profession. One could do better as a free lance writer.

The real/real/real pros you will never hear from or see a book or web site. Those are means of in-betweeners, engaging in business either to fund their forays or if they are smart enough, just to fuel their business.

There are a few exceptions. S. Yama, who posts and enlightens on this site does quite well. Didn't know that? Well, as informative as he is here, why should he tell you how to compete with him in his special niche.

Another long time tourney player has done quite well, lo over many years. But unless you happen to meet, are introduced, or learn of him while playing at an event he's at, you'll never know who he is.

There are a small number of others who ply their trade, but mostly as a waiting game for that special opportunity. Those "guys" (0h crap, there are a couple of gals too. One in paraticular you or I would not want to p*** off)would be better off at arbitrage, but again we come to psychology of "The Gambler." Albeit AP's are not gamblers.

Those that can are out there, quietly going about their biddness. Some from the "past" we learn about after their time is up, either at the game or the game of life.

To all of that we do have here on this site two exceptionally talented, analytical and giving posters. One of course is the site administrator. Who to me is an exceptional person. One nice guy to start. Two,willing to share, it seems to me, all that he knows, has investigated and experienced so others who are interested, may, if they put forth the same intense effort, achieve some success. And he started it all for FREE. No 25, 50 or 100 dollar levels of membership. No basic, mid level, ultimate levels of yearly membership for rehashed info. His take advantage comes down to finally writing a book. Why not? lesser gods have written books. And to sell shirts and hats and nic-naks. About time.

The other is JOEP. His book would be revealing. Without presuming too much or giving too much away....his real advantage aside from past accomplishments would be knowing how to pace oneself, or be patient and wait for those overlay opportunities(casino help in that area notwithstanding)
He too is willing to share his expertise, I believe, cause he knows from experience there are many who will read and believe, but not put forth the effort to achieve. And even if they did, he still feels he has an edge on 99 percent of those that try.

So mainly, Reachy, to respond to both your current and referenced post that's my opinion. Now before comcast decides I've been on long enough
and cuts me off here, better than in the middle of a money game, I bid you adieu.

 

Not a critisicm

Noman - I hope you don't think that my post was critical of anybody on this forum. The reason I said that my initial post was largely ignored was because I thought that the general opinion was along the lines of "that bloody Reachy's posting again!" Any knowledge that I gain from here (and I have learnt alot to be sure) is gratefully received. I totally understand and respect that people may not want to reveal how they bet in certain situations or whether they may hit or double when BR3's got a 14. You're right, why would they want to give away their strategies that I may well use against them at some point.

In Poker aren't the biggest earners the cash game players anyway? Apart from WSOP winners of course but that might change soon anyway.

Cheers

Reachy

 

My own oppinion, for what it's worth ...

If your level of play is above average, you can view tournament play like any other form of advantage play (though, if you play in tournaments where the house takes a cut of the entry fee, your advantage has to be enough to overcome this).

If a card counter can play enough hands of regular blackjack, without going bust due to risking to much of his BR on individual hands, then he should come out on top in the long run.

Similarly, if a skilled TBJ player plays enough tournaments, then the same thing should happen. The win/lose outcome of a tournament equates to the win/lose outcome of a single hand of regular BJ; it's a coin toss, with the coin slightly weighted in your favour (unless, of course, your opponents are more skilled).

However, tournaments take a lot longer, and are fewer and further between than single hands of BJ, so it might be impractical to play sufficient tournaments to convert a theoretical edge into an actual income.

Right now, there seems to be a honeymoon period at UltimateBet, where the poker players don't yet understand the game, and even someone of my meagre abilities has an advantage. Sadly, I doubt that will last long; some will just give up, and others will learn from this site, Wong's book, etc.

So, I'd better log back on now ....

 

Standing offer

Noman will back me up on my offer, I have put on the table for some time now. Simply I'll let anyone pick their top 50 players at an "OPEN" blackjack tournament and I'll take the field (with at least 150 player or more) and I say that I will will over 80% of the time.

I am not saying that the rest of the field is better, on the other hand I am sure the 50 players that are picked will be a lot more skilled, but I will be betting on the luck factor.

Just stop and think or better yet go back over the past two years and read post from this site about how many BJ tournaments have been held over that time and how many members here have won them. Then ask yourself if a "Pro" tournament player can make a living doing this.

Remember "Only" count the "Open" events where everybody has a chance to play. That takes out all VIP tournaments and WSOB & UBT events as well.

I am not trying to slam any of the better players, but face facts, LUCK is a big, (A VERY BIG) part of tournament play.

Better than checking back over the pass two years here, just check at the four UB/UBT freerolls that were just held this week. Did any of the top (Pro's) win any of them? As far as I know Michael C. coming in 5th was the best finish so far for one of the better known players.

As to Joep's comment about some players saying they don't like "Pros" at their tables, that is true. I have heard several players say that, but as I said in my first post the better players seem to advance more often, but they don't always make it to the finals, Why? Because they didn't have the luck!

Prove me wrong and I'll gladly tell everybody I'm sorry, but until you prove me wrong, Stop with the "Pro" tournament player BS.

 

Ah Tx:

Yes, I do agree with you on backing the field. But as far as having your back, better in a bar than in a proposition. Though, if I had it, I'd cover ya.

Reachy: You've been on long enough to not worry whether you're causing offense to someone or not. This is not necessarily a prim and proper and politically correct site. free exchange of info and ideas is the goal, the key.

Someone takes offense, maybe they should go teach high school(oh, oh).

Now to ramble on: Here's something I've been thinkin of for quite some time. And it relates to the "pros" the excellent players, the top, the elite, the cream in your coffee or tea. One or two sugars?

I had the opportunity to play against some known poker pros in some UBT trial events(I think I have game) But as an example, in one particular round with some top BJ "pros" and Johnnie Chan, Chan(supposedly not a BJ player) made two outstanding and necessary moves when he had to make them. He was this close to being gone. Yet, the skill, knowledge, experience, gutso that made him the poker player he is carried over around and through so that he overcame elimination with just the right move, the right bet at the right time. Even when it came down to a toss up in what he bet that he had to, would he win or lose? Guess what? He's Johnnie Chan. He won.

Whether it's Karma, Vishnu, Voodoo, lucky leperchauns, whatever, the top players, backed by knowledge, skill and experience have the mojo to come thru.

Is this contradictory to my backing TX? Not necessarily, cause it's life long, infinity long numbers and numbers of participants in a tourney and numbers of tourneys you enter, etc. etc.

Until, like Pokernut,(I said this is not a politically correct site and I mean no disrespect,) you discover your limits and play where you know you will win. Damn some dumbasses like me want to play against the best all the time. Cause a win there means more than taking candy from a baby.

 

Put UP

Tex so you want 2/3 of the field and then you claim you will win over 80 % of the time .

Since you seem so confident about your "Prop" bet I'm almost sure you will be willing to lay some odds if and when you will bet me.

I have a feeling this bet will take off and be made just like the Hollywood vs Assassin death match. Never

But if you are brave enough to offer me some interesting odds on this bet I will make it with you in regards to the UBT Aruba/St Kitts event's which will have 7 events total plus the next three UBT events of 500 or more .

If I pick a player in at least 2 of the ten events I win

So that there is no misunderstanding this post is about the abilty to make money in blackjack tournaments . Getting to the Final Table is making money.



"Lets get It On"



I await your call :laugh:

Joep

 

No backing down here...

Joep I'll be in town next week for the Stardust, we can do it then. I'm sure they will have over 150 players there, just give me your 50 picks and well make the bet.

But please note, I stated "Winning a tournament", I never said just making the final table. As far as odds they are built in for you already, gettting to choose the top 50 players and some of them "Pros" you should be getting the better deal, but your my friend so we can make the bet.

Actually I would love to lose this bet if I am one of the players you pick...LOL. I guess we may have to put an cause in the bet that I can't be one of your picks.

This bet is really more for bragging rights then the money, one of us will have to listen to the other for the next few months...LOL.

And remember I offered to deal to you and Hollywood anytime y'all are ready for your match!

 

Thanks for replies

Interesting dialogue. Also interesting how it devolves (some would say evolves) into a bettin' opportunity near the end...

So far it seems luck is in the lead--not unexpected. I personally believe that skill plays a significant part, within limits, but I'm uncertain if it's enough to elevate TB from more "playing the lottery" to more "playing a game."

Part of my point in asking this is that with current growth in popularity, I theorize that maybe more will work to raise play strategy to new levels. Also, maybe some more focus on tracking repeat winners/final table appearances could help develop hard data on skill vs. luck comparisons. Maybe a "Tournament Blackjack Player Points" chart?

I am aware that many who may have opinions on this may not want to contribute their thoughts. That may go for many questions that people would ask on a forum such as this. It will always be that way.

As for some comments which focus on online play--I'm thinking online plus live tournaments. i.e. Playing both is likely a must to get rolling the dice enough times to get in the money often enough. I hope that more tournament opps come our collective way with current developments. This would be good for anyone with this in mind...

In the end, I think the game side (vs. lottery side) of TB needs more development. Sites like this one, along with the collective input of those who post here, can help move that along.

Any more opinions on this line of thought?

 

sabresport:

Both UBT and TX's BJTPA,, or whatever are going to have points allocated for finishes and money standings. So, there's your hard data in the works.

 

Lets Get In On

Rick this is what Sabresport original post asked



Thus my questions, which are aimed especially at those who may be making money at this, whether it be FT or (decent) PT income:

Can skill really make tournament play winable on a consistent basis?

Are there real consistent income possibilities for a serious player?

As you can see he asked can anyone make money playing tournaments and how much of skill was involved.There was no mention of having to win the tournament

Remember making a Final Table is making money so your response was that no one can do it and its all luck

But I find your request to make the bet on a StarBUST tournament hysterical .I was born at night but not last night.

You want to make the bet in a tournament that basically has thrown out all or most of the top players, Pretty Funny Tex. You may be able to pull this move off in Texas but this Brooklyn boy is not interested in this tournament.

Like I said UBT tournaments will work for me since as of now they are open to all.

So cashing is the needed criteria for attaining this goal.

So do we have a bet ? I need to pick 1/3 of the field you get 2/3 and I need to have one of my selected players make a final table at least 2 times in 10 UBT Tournaments of 500 entry fees or above which would be 20 % thus preventing you from reaching over 80 % all of the time.

Joep

 

Get It On Already!

Tx and Joep-

You two have changed the subject of the thread into something personal once again. Big surprise there. You two diagree, and are challenging eachother.....Oooh, shocking!

Tx, you know very well that Joep would never have agreed on the Stardust (for obvious reasons). And Joep, you too also know Tx will not agree to a UBT event.

So I have a suggestion. Why not choose the Golden Nugget? There are ALOT of players in town this week for several events- seasoned, novice, even newbies. The Golden Nugget tourney will have a nice mix of them, plus I know both of you are entered as well.

I, for one, would love to see this challenge played out. I'm sure many of the players in town would love to as well. And we could open the betting field- why should you two have all the fun? After all, we're the ones who patiently read both of your endless (although, entertaining) postings.

So get it on already! Are you two game?

 

sabresport

My humble opinion:
If there is no "House edge" and all opponets are equal, we should, over the long term, come out even.

I think that we will have an equal amount of good and bad luck, over the long term. Therefore, timing is more important. And timing requires some degree of skill. In this situation skill really equals knowledge?

As for skill vs luck. I agree that "you can't win a tournament without some luck". But I don't know to what degree.

Over the long term, the skilled players will win the most tournaments, not necessarily the most money. I wish some math wiz would answer the question, "what percent luck and what percent skill.

I don't understand how you could equate blackjack tournaments to the lottery. I think the average person knows better than that.

tgun

 

Reference the "field" vs. "pros" bet, try this: Tex, you pick 10 people from the field and I'll pick 10 pros, then let's see who wins. Skill really is the deciding factor - not in any one tournament, for sure, but in that magic "long run" we all talk about.

Any tournament, BJ, poker or otherwise, is typically a high variance event. What may be rare in the case of one tournament (seeing a pro win it) is inevitable in 1000 tournaments (pros will win more than their fair share - as defined by their percentage of participation.)

My conclusion: Luck short-term (1 to 10 tournaments), skill long-term (more than 10 tournaments). Luck 40%, skill 60% if one were to play, say, 100 tournaments. That's not to say that a pro will win 60% of the tournaments s/he enters, but it implies that an accomplished pro will win at a rate 50% higher than the average player.

One analogy in poker is single-table tournaments - SnGs - where most savants agree that ending "in the money" (ITM) more than 40% of the time is an indication of above-average skill. When you consider that most poker SnGs pay 3 places (30-33%, depending upon 9- or 10-player tables), luck alone should see you ITM 30-33%, so 45% ITM is what a "pro" expects - roughly 50% better than what the average player can expect.

On the other hand, an ITM rate of 15-20% is pretty high for poker multiple-table tournaments (MTTs), assuming one enters MTTs with fewer than 300 or so players. In poker MTTs, usually 10% get ITM, but of course the big $$$ are paid for places 1,2 and 3; finishing just inside the money bubble won't get you a profit.

The 1000+ entry poker MTTs really are lotteries, although a pro may finish ITM more often than chance would indicate, if s/he enters quite a few of them.

GM

 

I'm willing to bet on both?

Tiger Woods would play against 200 of us on this site vs. just him in a round of golf because he is a "Pro" and he can control how he plays the game. We are playing with cards against other players vs. a dealer who has an advantage of winning even if we both bust. All we can do is change our bet size and have the options of how to play our hands, we have really have no control over the game.

My point of this bet was to show that the "Pro's" know that luck plays a bigger factor in these BJ tournaments then they would like to admit. If not they should jump all over this bet.

In answer to Sabresport with luck playing such a large part of tournament play it would be hard for any player to make a living from just BJ tournaments. Now with the start of the UBT, maybe the prize funds will be big enough to support a Pro" player, but I still believe you’ll need a sponsor to make it worth you time and effort as a full time tournament player. I would wait and see before quitting your job anyway...LOL

Joep talked about just making it to the final table and making money. Okay lets checkout the BIG bucks one could make from doing this. For example the Stardust 6th place is $2,000 - $3,000; WOW, you can retire now...LOL. As I have pointed out before, most of the BJ tournaments are TOP HEAVY! If you don't finish 1st or 2nd your really not making that much money, damn sure not enough to make a living off of.

Let me say that I think Joep is one of the best tournament BJ players out there and I truly think of him as my friend, we just have different opinions on this subject.

Now for our bet, the Stardust is perhaps the biggest advantage play that you will have, because of what you stated "They have cut so many of the better players".

It seems to me that it would be easier to pick the top 50 players at the Stardust easier than any other event only having no more than 50 seasoned tournament players to choose from and leave the rest of the field, but it is up to you. Plus the Stardust really isn't an "Open" event (more semi-invite) so that means your 50 picks should dominate the tournament.

I put the offer out (it has been out there for over two years, just ask noman). The deal is pick 50 players from a field of 150 or better (in an "OPEN" event and I will take the field (to win the tournament). It is a very simple bet, you either want to take the bet or not. I am not changing the rules now, it's not just making the final table (it’s winning the tournament) and the odds are already built in if the “Pro” are that much better than the regular players you should be giving me odds...LOL

The bet on the table, it is very simple take it or leave it offer. I have no problem either way.

As to the UBT Aruba events I'll let you pick 50 players in each of their events with 150 or more players (no bets in case I don't make it to Aruba, it’s not looking good) and we can see how it turns out (your top 50 players vs. the field) in each event. Just post your 50 players before the start of the events and we can all see how you do. Remember it is to win the tournament, not just make the finals!

If you win I'll post you were right so everybody here can see and if I win you don't have to say a thing. Just knowing I was right is good enough for me; I can't get any fairer than that.

Now to Alyssez question, the Golden Nugget is an invite only event and only will have 120 players invited to play so it isn't really covered in the offer I put out. Now for a friendly little bet (mostly bragging rights) I will make an adjustment and let Joep pick his top 40 players at the Golden Nugget and I'll take the field (to win the tournament).

This will give Joep two chances this coming week to show everyone who is right.

PS.

Skill is having the lead going into the last hand and winning the round with well thought out bets and strategy.

Luck is being down and coming back to beat the table leader on the last hand by DD your hard 19 and catching a two.

Bottom line is strategy is the only skill we have in these tournaments. Playing the highest percentages is our only advantage over other players, when a player or players over come big odds to win a hand or come back from a large deficit to win is what we call luck. Guess what it happens all the time, so you can’t ignore it, like it or not LUCK is a big factor in these tournaments.

 

Tx-

Let me get this straight. Not only are you allowed to change and/or decide the terms of this wager (While Joep is not), but now you're defining 'LUCK' and 'SKILL'? Somebody wake up Mr. Joep!!!!!

Elyssez