UBT Tournament Teaser

Hadn't thought it through...

The DD cards are not seen Mr Yama so would that make a difference? BR1 could assume that BR2 is going to DD anyway, he may even guess he DD for less. BR2 will have to decide what to do without knowing what BR1s outcome is.

CHeers

Reachy

Ps. I'm not playing with you, I really am this stupid!!

 

I would...

The question is what should BR1 do in this situation, so if I was BR1:

I would stand on my 9/9 vs. dealers 8 and hope BR2 bust their DD on hard 16.

As far as the dealers up card changing my mind, No! I would ride out my decision regardless of the dealers up card.

If BR2 pushes or loses the hand I win. BR2 DD on a hard 16, I'll take my chances since they have to hit one of three cards 3, 4, or 5 (assuming the dealer does have an 18).

I have it won if we both push or lose as long as I don't risk more then $92,900, but to split I would have to put up $100,000 to match my bet and that would open me up with a loss and gives BR2 another way to beat me.

Also I wouldn't DD my hand (hard 18). My loss and a BR2 push and I gave them the win. I feel my best shot is standing and hoping BR2 just busts or the dealer draws out on them.

I actually was in a similar situation on the last hand in the semifinals of the WSOB ll, however I was BR2 with the top two advancing. I ended up doing just what I said I would do above and ended up winning the table.

Is this the highest percentage play?

From the other post it sounds like no, but once again the question was what should I do in this situation and this would be what I feel I should do.

How dumb would I feel if I DD my 9/9 and lose while BR2 pushes their bet and I end up giving away the tournament?

 

I have to agree with you. Having the advantage of playing last with a decent hand against someone who has no choice but to DD on a lousey hand, I would stay and take my chances, also. I know there's cuculations and formulas involved to make the right decision, but if I've got 30 sec. to act on the final hand to decide fate between him or me, I'm going to think as simple as possible to survive. Anyways, it's just a game. And who's to say it's not the final table- I'd be happy with 2nd prize.

 

I'd do the same

I totally agree. If I was presented with this situation and had 30 seconds to decide I would stand as well.

However, now that I know that it is marginally better to DD then I may investigate this situation and situations like it further. I suppose, like Curts Revenge itself, DD in the situation presented is on the face of it counterintuitive. Only by analysing it after the fact do we realise that it is in fact the best move. I would like to find out now (as a newbie) whether there is a "rule" that can be applied easily in these sorts of scenarios (is there?). Maybe it's too specific a situation for a useful rule to be developed but Mr Yama already found out that DD on 19 is better than standing as well. So what I would like to know is "When should I stand or DD if have the high and the low and my opponent can beat me by a successful DD?" Is this the right question to ask? Is it too specific? Should I get a life (don't answer that one!)

cheers

Reachy

 

You say it now. But will you tomorrow:

Reachy: The real value in the tournament teasers and analysis, is not necesarrily to have that move ready to go if and when it comes up, if it comes up at all while your playing.

But the analysis and discussion of the best percentage play on this site or talking to other players at a live tournament, helps for the future, when you only have the 30 seconds to make the decision.

Just as hind sight.......You may never get the hand that is discussed and analyzed here, there, or anywhere, but the more you go through the exercise and utilize some of Yama's logical analysis, you'll begin to see what just has to be the right move for your situation at the time. And it was the right move if you win. But not necessarily the wrong move if you lose, cause I've heard so often, "I did everything right and still lost."

 

Tough Crowd

You guys are pretty good .I guess I will have to come up with tougher teasers to tease this crowd. That hand actually happened the other night during a Beta Testing Tournaments on the Play UBT site .

When the site goes public you will all get to see the " Best " Tournament software ever .

Its a treat to play you will not be disappointed !!


Joep2

 

Another Casino Teaser

Did I miss something here ,have you actually come up with a name for this teaser ? "Ken's Quandary".

Now as far as revealing who Br 2 was in this teaser

I will answer it just like I answer a casino security guards question when they ask to see my ID

My usual response is " I wasn't aware that I hit some sort of jackpot"

This response is usually followed by a very stern look from the $10 @ hour poorly trained security guard.

To show them how much I'm affected by their look I will then ask " how much did I win" ?

After that small exchange I usually get the King's treatment.


So this brings me to a new Casino Teaser which is what is the King's treatment in a casino actually like. Joep2 Style :laugh:


Lets see who can solve this teaser



Joep2

 

I assume...

Joep, my guess is your referring to Rodney.

But with out video tape...

 

I'm glad we're still talking!!!

Hi Noman

I totally get what your saying and I agree. Surely it can't be too hard to examine a matrix of hands to see whether there is a pattern though? In fact I'm going to attempt it now that Ken's shown me how to work out probabilities!!! Good practice for me

Incidentally I saw a book called "Probability for Dummies". Has anybody seen this book? It looks gambling oriented so I thought I might get it.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Here's the good one

Same situation with the bankrolls and bets, but your opponent's first two cards total is hard 5 instead of hard 16. He doubled for less and you as BR1 have (T, T) - hard 20! Dealer's up card is T. What will your reaction be?

 

Sign language:

I've stated before(and perhaps because I disdain the funny face icons) on this forum and others, sometimes, if the words are not taken literally without the receivers connotations, what is written can be misinterperted. I was not angry or hot or flying off the handle. Just trying to state opinion. But the various on line forums tend to skew intention.

"Prob for Dummies" might actually be the best, unless you really want to b e a nerd. I'd recommend, as well Peter Griffen's "The Theory of BlackJack," available at Anthony Curtis' Huntington Press for a reasonable amount. That is after you've worked at Yoda's instructions. Does he not simplify the most complex??

And you know the best guidance is your actual play. Play. Play. Play. The numbers are great as a guidline, but various authors and experts tend to extrapolate them for their own theories and book selling.

Unless you beleive you're going to play 2 million hands in your life time, you have to play to your comfort level.

If the theory says that , if you strike your forehead with the correct velocity at such and such a speed per second against a fourfoot thick brick wall in order to cause the wall to come crashing down, yet you practice and all your attempts to do that, perhaps sometimes actualizing the correct velocity and speed, yet the wall never comes down....do you keep trying, or do you then attempt to climb over or dig under the wall. Or simply walk around it.

Maybe you'll see a pattern, or in your comfort level believe you do. That would be okay. But remember, just because it's 50-50 that the tossed coin will come up heads or tails, doesn't mean it will do that exactly half the time equally.

Continued growth in knowledge and Great Good Fortune to you.

 

Hi Noman

I must admit I'm a little bit lost as to what you mean here. If you thought I thought you were angry or hot I did not. If anything I was making a jokey reference to our soccer conversation the other evening. Although I agree, emails, online chat, forums, etc can often be missinterpreted.

As for Tirle BJ situation, I would still DD the 20 vs DD hard 5!!! Unless my maths is wrong, if you stand with 20 BR2 can only win if the dealer busts (23.02% of the time) but will only win if I DD if I bust and the dealer busts (21.2%) or if BR2 hits an Ace for 17, the dealer has 17 and I bust (.08% of the time) Therefore if I stand BR2 wins 23.02% of the time if I DD he wins 22.1% of the time. It's close. Am I right? Or have I missed something glaringly obvious?

Cheers

Reachy

 

Little correction

Reachy, in TIRLE_BJ's example BR2 has hard 5 so by DD he can never push.

 

Thanks

Aaaarghhh!! Told you I'm stupid! Didn't even read the question correctly. I answered the question as a hard 6 but you probably guessed that.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Tirle_bj in this situation I still wouldn't split BR1's T/T.

I would just hope the dealer has a made hand or draws to any hand of 17 to 21.

Why split against a dealers T, when if you lose both you could give away your lead?

 

Ken, are you sure?

Doubling a hard 20 (T/T) is the best play?

How can that be? If BR1 busts (which every card except an Ace will bust you) and BR2 can't bust it sure seems like the percentage would be alot lower than 78.79%?

After all if you (BR1) DD and bust and the dealer busts BR2 will beat you.

Unless I am looking at the hand wrong and then I'll just take another back pill and go lay back down...LOL