I tried this question at BJ21.com and was suggested I try it here... Okay, I checked out the weekly tournament at an area casino. It's a "battle of the sexes" format w/ men's bracket and women's bracket with top 3 men and top 3 women going to final table. I asked several regulars what bankroll (BR) is needed to advance to final, answer was $800 to $1000 (starting at $500). Trick is that it's only 15 hands. I've been reading Wong's book on tournaments but am uncertain about what bet sizing strategy to use. Initial BR is $500. Bets are $5 to $500 (with no limit on final hand). 15 hands. Goal BR is $1000. Going into the tournament blind, I did min bets until the end when I switched to 1/7, 1/3 and all-in progression (but busted out). To double my BR in 15 hands, does anyone have suggestions for better bet sizing strategy? Thanks for any help!
Bet BIG right out the gate. That's right, bet $500 on your first bet. If you push, bet it again. If you win then nickle out the rest of the round. This gives you a 44% probability of attaining the $1,000 goal. If you are too timid to bet the $500, make your bets $250 until you reach the $1,000. Your chances of succeeding this way are less than 44% but you get to play longer. Forget about minimum bets until the end (what are you waiting for?) and progressions. These strategies are for table elimination play and don't really apply much to accumulation format tournaments. An exception: Progressions are OK if you need to make a specific small amount to attain your goal. I guess the real question is do you want to win or play longer?. I like to win and betting the $500 right out the gate gives me that 44% probability of winning. Have to go now. Be back in about a week.
Thanks for the input, Toolman. I used Excel to simulate this. Actual win rate with all-in strategy at end of 15 hands is almost 48% due to pushes (using: no double/split, 44% win, 8% push and 48% lose on any one hand). Only refinement I'm going to make to the process is to wait 'til between hands 6 and 10 to go all-in. I'll pick a hand at random ahead of time and also watch the count (since I'm not bet sizing, it will be a breeze to keep the count). It might leave me a little short of goal, but this way the regulars in this tourney won't catch on to my strategy as fast. At $25 buy-in, making it to final table (which is in the money) 48% of the time gives me a positive expected value (even if I never did better than 6th place!). I might even get my girlfriend to play, w/ top three from each gender bracket going to final table (ie in the money), we could both get there some of the time. Of course the drawback is she'll want to reinvest in the slot machines......
If you count cards, then waiting for the opportune time is fine and will increase your chances of advancing. The drawback being that you may have less to go "all in", but on the other hand you may have more. Also, since you are competing against all the players at other tables, I would not worry much about someone at your table doing a "copy cat". I'm sure some have already done the "all in" thing and a ploppy may just think it's dumb luck to win this way and continue on his merry way. When I play like this, I use a little "cover" i.e. I try to act like a ploppy so others think it's dumb luck rather than a strategy. By the way, you are correct about the 48% (44/92). GOOD LUCK!!!
Well, first week of my new strategy and best I can say is I followed the advice from Wong's tournament book to a 'T': make your goal bankroll or bust out trying. The only person who seemed to wonder about it was someone I indentified as being either a skilled or advantage player. And his question wasn't why all-in, but rather why that particular hand (2nd time I was last to bet). The one thing throwing me off-kilter in this tourney was the way people use (overuse?) surrender, especially on the final table. For anyone one reading this thread in the future: trick to the all-in strategy to double your bankroll is to do it at least 4-5 hands before the end, so you have time for pushes to play out.
I played a few of these ...they usually set them up as a fun, quick cheap event... Due to the limited number of hands the big pots tend to concentrate on one or two tables where the dealer is cold....while no matter what you try on a hot dealer table you will probably come up short... Doubling your money may work one time but the next time a hot table will have the ploppies quading their money.... Its tough to develop a consistant stratagey but as you play every week you will usually develop a feel for what you need... Where I play this game they have three 1st round start times....I always choose 3rd seating because then I have a number to shoot for to advance to the next round...sometimes you need to turn the 500 into 1000....sometimes you need 2500....one time I won with 150.....lol Its not a great format....far more luck based than stratgey driven yet it certainly pays to develop a game plan and then adjust it as the scores rise and fall.... Working with the count can help you but more important is what are they doing at the tables beside and across from you....if a dealer is busting out then that whole table is probably building a stack....I play an 8 hand event and its even more up and down....most players all in every hand and the scores of those left standing are usually pretty high....just doubling the 500 would leave you short every time.
Update: on my 4th week of playing in this tournament, I finally made it to the final table and am now ahead by roughly 1 entry fee. Not enough to retire on, but at least gives more than just entertainment value for my playing time.
Exactly....you are not playing against the house in this game so you actually have a chance...lol More so its fun and fairly cheap entertainment and you also have a chance to win more as you gain experience in that format... I bet your final table appearances % goes up as you learn the nuiances of that particular game. Good job!!!!!
