Hi All, Played in the the 500k 50 player tourney at Mandalay over the weekend. 10k per hand 20 hands Last hand can bet 20k Surrender allowed Round 1, 2 advanced. Was 4th in chips on the final hand (which was random selection) I had a 13 and was 3rd to act, and dealer showed a picture. I doubled and got an 8, so 21 and advanced. In the quarters, a very aggressive table, and everyone was winning. On the final hand all 6 players were left and 2 advanced. I'll run the chips for the top 3 players. Once again random drawing for who to act first. In betting order: BR3: 99k BR2: 106k BR1: 112k (me) BR3: bets 20k gets a 20 BR2: 106k bets 500 gets a 13 BR1: 112k (me) I get stressed out and forgot to pay attention to BR2 and only BR3, so I bet 15k and hopes that the dealer pushes and I would surrender. I get a 16, and surrender. Dealer flips a 17, and yes...i'm SOOOOOOOOOOO stupid, all i needed to bet was 500 and would have locked out seat 2. I guess too much reading CTS and the forums has me overanalyzing. Even when I told my gf the situation, she immediately said why didn't you bet 500? lol oh wells, next week i'm at the 300k mirage bj tourney where I will try again.
OUCH. Don't beat yourself up about it. We've all done totally boneheaded things in the heat of the battle, and anyone who says they haven't is lying to you. Keep learning and you'll do fine.
i don't think so lefty; what do you mean? i for one, have never made a bonehead move in all the years i have played tournaments. having a hard time seeing the screen while typing this reply to you. for some reason my nose is getting longer.
Try a Middling Type of Bet If allowed, $13.5k seems like the best choice. If you must bet in multiples of $1k, then the choices would be $13k or $14k. You'd like to cover a win-win outcome between you and BR3. You'd also like to have the capability to surrender and beat a BR3 push outcome.
As BR2, acting after BR3's 20K, my first priority would be to ensure I can keep the high and low if BR2 doubles and I double too. So I'd either match BR2, or bet at least 17K.
When faced with a choice of which situations to cover, I try to think about the probability of each occurring. The 2 suggested bets are: - 13.5k, which covers win-win and allows for surrender vs BR3's potential push - 17k-20k which covers win-win and double-double The probability of BR3 being successful when doubling/splitting anything is about 30%. The probability of BR3 pushing is only about 8%. So I would choose to cover the former. Simulation appears to support this. With 8 decks, S17 and BR2 and BR3 both playing optimal strategy, the 13.5k bet yields a 64.5% chance of advancing. The 17k bet yields 71.3%. Betting within the range 17k-20k should yield the same result.
Absolutely. But there's more to it than that - You are acting second and just need to correlate your result with BR3: lose/lose would be fine. So you are very unlikely to choose to surrender in the hope of a BR3 push. I'd really only consider it if BR3 has a 20 and the dealer has a 10 up, while I have a poor starting hand. ( Maybe 19 and a 9 up too.) In contrast, there can be situations where you are presented with a risk-free double. If you can't bust, and BR3 has doubled to a stiff total, then you have a lock.
Yes, I agree that the strength of correlation is the key here. Since both 13.5k and 17k+ cover the win/win, lose/lose scenarios the choice was whether to additionally cover double/double (17k+) or to allow for a defensive surrender (13.5k). I just wanted to point out how I decide which to choose. Your point that it would be difficult to decide when to use that surrender is a good one.
What I was really trying to suggest is that the 30% probability of a successful double is not necessarily the most important factor to consider. I have no idea how one could begin to quantify these things, but the significant factors would seem to be - the probability that BR3 will attempt the double. the probability that, BR3 having doubled, you will match their result by doubling in turn. So even if the probability of the push and the successful double were equal, my feeling is that covering the double would have more value. (Or even if the probability of the push were greater. But then there must be some upper limit at which point covering the push does have more value. I just have no clue what it might be. )
Good points again (as always!). We must not only consider the mathematical probabilities of the success of these actions, when attempted, but also the probabilities that our opponent(s) will attempt them in the first place. A knowledgeable opponent will know to double for the high when he's covered both ways, and a lot of ploppies will double on the last hand, whether they need to or not, so these considerations add weight to the decision to cover the double/double outcome, in this case.
