2 situations from last tourny

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by greek007, Apr 20, 2010.

  1. greek007

    greek007 New Member

    1: 1 winner 500 min no max no surrender

    a 19000
    b 22300
    c 18000

    A bets 4000
    B incorrectly bets 500, should bet 4000 I think
    c ????? should c take high or low?

    c bets 2900 gets 10,10 a has hard 17 b has hard 18 dealer 10 up
    should c split 10s?

    2: same conditions

    a 8000
    b 36250
    c 18000


    a bets 8000
    b bets 500 is this correct or should he bet 10000 to stop c bj
    c bets 18000 only play
     
  2. BlueLight

    BlueLight Active Member

    Situation 1

    Even if 'b' bets 4000, then 'c' cannot take the low, a 'c' bet of 12400-18000 gives 'c' 43.20% to win and 'b' a 44.07% chance if BJ pays 2-1 or 'b' a 44.63% chance if BJ pays 3-2.

    With a 'b' bet of 500, then a 'c' bet of 9100-18000 will give 'c' his best chance of 43.20% to win and 'b' with 43.04%.

    With a 'b' bet of 3200 he has over a 48% chance to win reguardless what 'c' bets. 'c' with a bet of 10800-18000 will still have a 43.20% chance. Therefore 'b's increase comes at 'a's expense.


    When 'b' bets 500 and 'c' bets 2900, then 'c' cannot win even with a full swing. 'c' needs to get more money bet by splitting 10's and playing not to bust gives 'c' a 41% chance to win.


    Situation 2

    Since 'b' will not have more than double what 'c' has after 'b' bets 500 then 'b' should bet 10000 to cover a 'c' 3-2 BJ. Even with BJ paying 2-1 a 'b' bet of 10000 is best.

    .................BlueLight
     
    S. Yama likes this.
  3. greek007

    greek007 New Member

    bluelight thankyou very much for answers I screwed up on situation 1 two people advance not one.
     
  4. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    one advances

    Greek007,

    You can always trust BlueLight numbers!

    Let’s talk more about player’s options (one advances, lol)

    A) 19000
    B) 22300
    C) 18000

    From player A position:
    Tough spot. If he bets very small then player B can bet small, too, to lock him out -and the game is over.
    If he bets to minimally beat B’s push, he loses to any C’s big bet.
    If he bets big (>17000), winning locks out player C, but B can cover him. Still, in most cases this would be the best play. He would advance by winning and B not winning, as well pushing and B losing bigger bet and C not winning; also bj advances all but B’s bj. Altogether ~ 20%

    From player B perspective:
    This play would depend on A’s bet and C style of playing.
    In most cases B would be served the best by betting big. The big bet should be the highest of: bet enough so his own bj covers A’s bj and C’s max bet bj, bet to cover opponents’ any multiple win. This play gives at least ~45%
    Betting less than the lead over any of the two opponents also offers (per BL tables) 43%.
    Betting minimum still advances B slightly over 42%
    Please note that the numbers are very close, though they are result of very different outcomes.

    From player C point of view:
    Bet big if winning that bet advances you even if any of the opponents win double, otherwise bet small to keep more unbet chips than either of the two.

    S. Yama
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2010
  5. BlueLight

    BlueLight Active Member

    For 2 advance in situation 1

    For 2 players advance, dealer H17S18, BJ 3-2 situation as follows:

    .....BkRll............Bet

    a) 19000..........4000
    b) 22300...........500
    c) 18000.............?

    c's bets with the following expectations

    c) bet....................2900............18000

    a) Probability......... .4951........... .7930
    b) Probability......... .9932........... .7239
    c) Probability......... .5117........... .4831

    When 'b' bets 500 then a 'c' bet of 2900 (keeping low over 'a') gives the highest chance for 'c' to advance = 51.17%. This 'c' bet of 2900 also gives 'b' a very high 99.32% to advance.

    However if 'c' had gone all in with a bet of 18000 then 'c's chances drop a little to 48.31% while 'b' drops to 72.39%.

    Also with 2 players advancing, with 'b' betting 500 and 'c' betting 2900, now splitting 10's is not the best play. 'c' should stand with his 20 and the dealer would have to bust for 'c' to lose out. 'c's chance to advance to advance would now be 77.02%.

    A more logical bet for 'b' would have been 3200 (holding 100 more than 'a's starting bankroll) getting the high and low over 'a' and with 'b' surviving the push loss swing. With this 'b' bet of 3200, 'b' will have at minimum 93.88% chance to advance reguardless what 'c' bets.

    With 2 advancing and a 'b' bet of 3200, a 'c' bet of 2900 is still best for 'c' yielding a 55.79% chance to advance.

    However with only 1 advancing and 'b' betting 3200, then a 2900 'c' bet is terrible for 'c', yielding only a 7.03% chance for 'c'. Here 'c' needs to bet big, say 18000, for a 43.20% chance.


    A note on situation 2:

    a)..........8000............8000
    b)........36250...........10000...(better than 500 bet)
    c)........18000...........18000

    If BJ pays 3-2 then a 'c' BJ can be overcome with a 'b' win.

    If BJ pays 2-1 then a 'c' BJ can be overcome with a 'b' BJ.


    ............................BlueLight
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2010

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