How would you bet in the following situation? 2nd last hand, heads up. Both still have their secret bet. You go first. Min bet 500, max bet 25K. Surrender allowed. =>You 65,000 w/secret, bet ? BR1 66,750 w/secret BR1 is a bomber who throttled back somewhat as the competition whittled down, but doesn't seem to understand the finer points of tournament betting principles. He did, however, seem to understand basic correlation and opposition betting. Would you play it differently if you profiled BR1 as a strong player?
my little stab.... My bet as BR2: 5,000 open. Rationale: 1. I don’t want to give this person a free pass. If I bet moderate I want them to correlate and hope for a swing and the bigger the swing the better. For example we both bet 1,000 and get a swing it’s only 2,000 66,000 vs. 65,750. With a 5,000 swing it’s 70,000 vs. 61,750. 2. If I lose the 5,000 it gives me 60,000 and plenty of room for the last hand 3. Most likely these inexperienced players will either match or go bigger If this were a “strong player” I would simply bet 2,000. In either case I want to save my secret bet until the final hand. The only difference is that depending upon whom I was playing I might use my secret bet on this hand and go to extremes – either min or max bet. But that would totally depend upon how I’ve gotten them to react to my bets earlier.
I'd definitely use the secret bet Much better to hope your bets do not correlate, and so you have either the high or the low, than to hope for a swing. The actual amount could be anything within a certain range and, as has been discussed before, you benefit if you make your choice as 'random' as is humanly possible, within that range. To work out the range of possible bets, the first question is what are BR1's likely responses to a secret bet from BR2. To me, the main possibilities seem to be - 500, 1500, 3000, 25K. Assuming one of those BR1 bets, the range of bets which could give BR2 the lead without a swing is 5K - 23K. Substituting 8K for 5K would also mean a BR1 DD of a 3K bet would still be covered. But I would also like the opportunity to win on the last round via a swing, if that is what it takes. I don't want to lock myself out by betting too much on this round if it can be avoided. Focusing on the smaller BR1 bets - If BR1 wins 6K with a 3K DD that means a total of 72,750, so I want to leave myself 73K - 25K = 48K if I lose, meaning a bet of no more than 17K this round. If BR1 wins 25K then that means a total of 91,750. I want to have 46K left to give myself the chance of reaching 92K via a DD. But that's already catered for since 46K is less than 48K. So, all that convoluted reasoning boils down to a 'random' secret bet in the range 8K - 17K. As a further refinement, if I limit the bet to 16.5K then I can always DD for 500. This might induce BR1 to make an unwise DD to correlate. I have to admit I wouldn't necessarily have gone through all that reasoning at the table. I might have just gone for 2K - enough to swing against a BR1 push.
I need some clarification on this. First question: On your Point 3: Wouldn't an experienced player also match the $5,000 bet? You seem to imply that only an inexperienced player will match the $5,000. If that's the case, what would an experienced player do? Second question: Why would you bet $2,000 if it were a "strong player"? Betting $5,000 against a weak player but only $2,000 against a strong player? Both bets will result in you being BR1 with a swing. So what I am saying is why not just bet the $5,000 irregardless of the quality of the opponent?
3k in the open for me... and assuming BR1 matches the bet... a DD or a surrender may give BR2 the lead if the 'right" cards fall to both players.
MY Bet: 7,500 secret A 7,500 bet allows for a DD (or split) if the opportunity arises. Depending on BR1's results, this could give BR2 the lead and possibly by more than a 1/2 max bet going into the last hand. If a DD loses, BR2 still has 50,000 which is 2 max bets. A 7,500 bet also provides some flexibility for using the surrender option if the circumstances are right. I say use the secret bet now because BR2 bets last on the last hand so the value of the secret bet is diminished. Also, by using the secret bet, BR1 may be fooled into over betting. If BR1 bets small, then a single win by BR2 could give him the lead. My bet would be the same irregardless of the quality of my opponent.
My response was off the cuff and based on MY personal experiences, which are mostly limited to online TBJ. It has been my experience that against opponents who are strong players they might match the 5000 but more commonly they would bet either 500 or just enough to cover a win – in this case 3,500. Secondly a stronger opponent will not “blindly” DD for the full amount in this situation as they are positioning themself for the final hand. An inexperienced player may, upon seeing my 5,000 bet decide to go big, and it leaves them more vulnerable (in my opinion) Once again this was an “off the cuff” response. I’m going under the assumption that this “strong player” will min bet, therefore my 2,000 bet is enough to keep me within a min bet with both winning. The strong player will realize that they only have to min bet and they will STILL be BR1. So a non-optimal 2,000 bet, in my mind, induces BR1 to min bet. Therefore going into the final hand I bet last, have my secret bet and will have either 67,000 or 63,000 (assuming no DD) versus either a 67,250 or a 66,250. The hard part about questions like this is the we are asking what to do with a single snapshot and we don’t see the “overall big picture”. It is good for learning techniques and following trains of thought. An example is London’s response – he obviously took time to look at all avenues and I think it is a valuable learning tool. I find it interesting about when and how people use the secret bet. You reasoning about fooling the opponent is a great point.
I guess the problem I have with the 2,000 bet is that it's purpose is to keep BR2 as BR2. Since this is the second from last hand, it seems to me that a little more aggression at this time is warranted. Betting your 5,000 at this time at least gives BR2 a reasonable chance of being BR1 going into the final hand without risking a large enough amount to be any more detrimental than a 2,000 bet if a loss occurs. Food for thought.
Munch...munch Your point is well taken – I never said the 2,000 was an optimal, or even a good bet. In fact, given the time I’ve had to reflect upon it the less and less I like the 2,000 bet. My point is that when I play against a stronger player there are several things I’m looking for: 1. Don’t screw up – the mistakes I make will not be as forgiving 2. Get as much information as possible 3. Play unconventional – try to throw them off of their game 4. Wait until what I feel is the right moment then… My opinion is that in this particular instance, against a stronger player, I’m playing, establishing myself for a final hand, using my secret bet and planning what I’ll be doing AFTER the stronger player goes. The funny thing is that after reading other posts and your questions I realize that I’m probably being too conservative in this scenario. Why? Because of my recent live tourney experiences at the GN. I found that the same thing happens to my online playing style after I’ve competed in live BJT. There is a different style, rhythm, mindset, etc… In fact with the online versions there is a total different in the 1 SNG versus the 100 SNG! I guess it goes to say that past experiences don’t guarantee future outcomes and behavior!
The Main Idea Behind This Teaser I agree with toolman on this point. However, one thing to account for in analyzing this frequent scenario is that the plops very commonly make a max bet when they use their secret, and assume the opponent would do the same. They do it so commonly that this is one of the most important differences between plops and strong players in the online EBT games. This difference between plops and strong players is important enough that it should affect your decisions in scenarios like this one. I think in analyzing this scenario you can assume a 2/3 possibility that the plop will bet out a max bet if you use your secret. This assumption changes the mathematics that govern this situation. 21K in secret will give you a 2/3 chance of a surrender-proof low without losing unacceptable ground if you both win. Not only that but you've got a situation similar to the Strong Variation of Curt's Revenge. You have up to a 54% chance of becoming BR1 if the current BR1 bets out the max. You have a 1/3 possibility of BR1 betting low and if you lose your whole bet you'll fall >1/2 max bet behind. You should surrender if your hand is a loser. If your opponent is strong you operate under the assumption that he/she has also read you as a strong player. If you come out with a secret bet it's very unlikely your strong opponent will react with a max bet. A 21K bet is a big risk for you. Some kind of mid-range bet such as 6,000 in secret is better. That way you're unlikely to be correlated and you're not risking your whole tournament if you lose.
