I'm a newbie to tournament blackjack - and I played a few SNGs yesterday at Ultimate Bet. The last one I played last night - there were two players left, and I had to bet first on the 29th hand (out of 30 hands). I had about 65K chips, the opponent had 61K chips. Both of us have our secret bets left. With 25K as the max bet - what should I do? How much should I bet, and should I use the secret bet here?
In my opinion, one of the toughest decisions in tournament blackjack is deciding what to bet when you're ahead, but have to bet first. I think the best move in that situation is to bet 5K. This is as much as you can bet without giving up the low. If you bet too much, your opponent can take the low from you. By betting 5000, you force him to have to bet at least 10000 to take the high over you. If he bets minimum, you can surrender back the lead. If he does take the high, and you both lose, you've increased your lead by at least another 5000. If you swing him, you're more than 1/2 max bet ahead. But even if he somehow takes the lead in that hand, he has to act ahead of you on the last hand, so you should have opportunities to take it back.
Good answer UTVOLFAN gives a good answer on the best bet, but what about the other part of the question. Should you use your secret bet now or hold it for the last hand? I think the answer depends on your feel for the other players abilities. Obviously if you don't use the secret bet this hand it is likely your opponent will not either, and you might wind up both using it on the last hand. However if you use it now, then maybe your opponent will too, which could work to your advantage on the last hand since you are betting and acting after them on that hand. Maybe using the secret bet on this next to last hand would confuse your opponent into making either a max bet or minimum bet which you could work to your advantage? The question is, which is more advantageous to you, keeping your bet secret on this hand or the final hand?
That's a good question. Some of the pros on this site may have something more insightful to offer, but my intuition is to save the secret bet till the last hand. Keeping the lead on hand 29 is less important than keeping or possibly taking back the lead on hand 30 (especially since you're acting last). Also, a skilled player who's BR2 on the next to last hand may see a BR1 secret bet as a huge opportunity to wait and take the lead on hand 30. Plus, I think it works to BR1's advantage to force BR2 to bet big, whether his bet is secret or not. Keeping the bet public does just that. Some players may see a secret bet as a possible max bet, tempting BR2 to try to take the low. The dynamics of the situation may be different if BR1 is only 1000 ahead instead of 4000. In that case, the secret bet may be better used on hand 29.
This is the 64,000 question and one that I was trying to alude to on the other post - "Secret Bet" I haven't seen very many secret bets being used - when they are being used 95% of the time it is ON the elimination hand. Of that 95% almost 80-90% of the time people are betting max ANYWAY - so what's the big secret? Last night I did get fooled by BRL when they used their secret bet on the elimination hand - thinking they would max bet I went max myself (when in doubt throw it out) when they only did 1/2 max. Needless to say I was ELIMINATED. A good lesson to learn. UTVolfan thanks for your answer - good logic. Personally I think it's sometimes easier NOT to be BR1 because then the answer is simple needing to know what it takes to be BR1. Unfortunately it's like King of the Hill easy to get there - hard to hold the crown!
Look at my table fgk42 - Look at the table and explanation I've just added to "A quickie" post. What do you think? Cheers Reachy
BR1 Betting First With a lead of 4,000 another option would be to bet 7,500. You're not really trapping the opponent, but you're forcing him to risk more chips to take the high. If he goes low instead you surrender if your chance of losing is greater than his chance of winning.
