I've been playing tournaments for a long time and not much surprizes me, but yesterday I was stunned by a play and it actually messed me up. The situation was at the semifinal table at Winstar this weekend. There were only 5 players left at the table with the top three advancing to the final table. It was the final hand (18), $25 min - no limit betting. Seat 4 (BR4) has $925 and bets first Seat 5 (BR3 - me) has $950 Seat 6 OUT Seat 1 (BR1) has $1,100 Seat 2 (BR2) has $1,025 Seat 3 (BR5) has $600 I have my $300 bet ready to match seat 4 (BR4) and close out seat 3 (BR5) when she places a $50 bet out. I'm in shock, now I'm trying to figure out what I need to pass BR1 & 2 while covering BR4 and locking out BR5. However there isn't any bet to do this. Time is running out and I'm trying to figure out is matching BR4's bet and going basicly head to head with the low against BR5 (who you know is going to go all in) or bet my orignal $300 bet and possibly give up 3rd place to BR4. BR1 & BR2 both know to at least match my bet and BR5 for sure will go all in. What would you do? Be honest within 30 seconds as if you were actually at the table and then do the math as to what the better play would be. Remember 3 advance or it would have been a no brainer.
Go All In I wasn't able to figure this out in 30 seconds. However by going all in and WINNING even BJ's by BR4 and BR5 will not beat you. By going all in you also force BR1 and BR2 to bet big. Now a PUSH will also help you if BR1 or BR2 lose (both need to lose if both BR4 and BR5 win their hands) their big bet. Using the 3 player outcome tables with BJ paying 2-1; then below are the chances of one advance amoung BR3, BR4, and BR5. BR4.....925.......50 BR3.....950.....950......48.05% chance to advance plus PUSH chances vs BR1 & 2 BR5.....600.....600 BR4.....925......925 BR3.....950......300......43.95% chance to advance plus PUSH chances vs BR1 & 2 BR5.....600......600 BR4.....925......925 BR3.....950......950......46.22% chance to advance plus PUSH chances vs BR1 & 2 BR6.....600......500 .................................BlueLight
This is a tough one because with 300 you basically have to win the hand. BR 1 & 2 will have you both ways and BR 4 will have you low. So suddenly you are <50% as BR3 in a 3 advance out of 5? Seems bad. (Probably you are slightly above 50% with advanced strategies but still...). Is there surrender? I definitely would not go all in. Match her bet? Then you don't need to win, but you need to hope she doesn't swing you or BR5 doesn't win all-in. But if you do that you have a shot at BR2 with a double vs. a push or a min-bet win. Can you bet any amount? I might bet $70 here if possible. If not possible then... if there is surrender, I might bet 150. No surrender... probably 275 if forced w/in 30 seconds. But I hate my chances given the scenario.
More Numbers Using 5 player outcome tables I get the following results: Plyr.........BkRll..........Bet........Advance Prob P1...........925..........925........... .5011 P2...........950..........300........... .5699 P3.........1100..........300............ .9011 P4.........1025..........300............ .8336 P5..........600...........600........... .1942 This table shows your planned 300 bet if P1 had gone all in. P3 and P4 follow through with bets of 300 also this is best for them. Plyr........BkRll..........Bet.........Advance Prob P1..........925............50............. .1340 P2..........950............50............. .4771 P3........1100.............25........... 1.0000 P4........1025.............25............ .9569 P5.........600............600............ .4320 This table shows P1's actual bet of 50. Your best bet if betting low is 50 also. Note that P3 and P4 bet minimum here. However you can inprove your chance slightly by going all in. See next table. Plyr........BkRll..........Bet..........Advance Prob P1.........925.............50............ .5559 P2.........950...........950............ .4956 P3.......1100...........125............ .9331 P4.......1025...........400............ .7678 P5........600............600............ .2476 By going all in you increase your chance from .4771 to .4956. Your bet also hughley increases P1's chances from .1340 to .5559 a value higher than your new total. There's no justice in the world. P3 and P4 would have to find their best bets of 125 and 400 respectively. A bet of 75 by P2 would not be good. See next table. Plyr........BkRll...........Bet.........Advance Prob P1..........925............50.......... .2587 P2..........950............75.......... .3871 P3........1100............50.......... .9986 P4........1025............25.......... .9235 P5.........600...........600.......... .4320 P3 and P4 bets were determined in the following manner. P4 was given an arbitrary bet. Then all bets for P3 were tested for the maximun return. This would be P3's new bet. Now P4 gets to test bets for his maximum return and that would be his choice. P3's chances would be knocked down by P4's new bet and P3 would have to test new bets. This would go on until the bets for P3 and P4 do not change. The tables assume all players play basic strategy for hitting and standing oblivious to what another player stood on. No doubling or splitting considered. So what did you do and how did it turn out? ......................BlueLight
Blue Light -- what does your table do with ties -- allocate them 50/50? (Because it always adds up to 300). Also what do you get for $70 and $275?
Ties and bets of 70 and 275 Ties and what kind of ties are kept track of. For this semi-final :1st, 2nd and 3rd place are assigned a value of $100 each; 4th and 5th are assigned a value of $0. If for one of the outcomes 3 players tie for 2nd, 3rd and 4th then $200 is divided 3 ways ($66.67 each) for that outcome. There are 1024 separate outcomes for 5 players with each player having 4 possible results : BJ, Win, Push or Loss. A P2 bet of 70 (not allowed by the rules) would have been much better than a bet of 75. See table below. Plyr..........BkRll...........Bet.........Prob Advancing P1............925............50............ .1340 P2............950............70............ .5077 P3..........1100............25............ .9999 P4..........1025............25............ .9264 P5...........600...........600............ .4320 Plyr.........BkRll...........Bet..........Prob Advancing P1...........925............50............. .5569 P2...........950..........275............. .4903 P3.........1100..........125............. .9386 P4.........1025..........300............. .7678 P5..........600...........600............. .2476 ..........................BlueLight
Results Well once BR4 bet $50 I lost it for a second. I looked at the table this way, I was BR3 and basicly locked out BR4 if I matched her bet, BR1 and BR2 didn't matter as long as I could retain BR3 so it came down to me against seat 3 so I took the low matching BR4's $50 bet. I figured it worked out like a heads up situation so I took the low. Now I'm praying for the dealer to hit blackjack. As it played out however I hit an 18 and had the best hand on the table vs. the dealers 10. I was feeling pretty good until no one hit and the dealer flipped a 3 and hit it with a picture to bust and give seat 3 the final spot to the final table. To do it over again I would have gone with my first choice of $300 regardless of what BR4 bet. It just gives me a few more options to advance even with giving up the low to BR4. The saving grace was I advanced to the August finals so no more 20 hours needed to play anymore...lol.
I believe I would look at this from a different perspective. Once you bet 225 or less, then it is not you against BR4, you have let BR5 into the game and thus a 3 player game with 1 winner. BR5 is always in the game with a BJ, but we will ignore that. True you can still be in the game against BR1 and BR2 with a 50 bet (you might get a BJ, DD, splits, etc.), but at least 300 would take out some of these low % options. So I set up Wong's old program for three players and let it run 1200 iterations of 50 vrs 300. The 300 won 44% and 50 won 42%. I would look at these as your lowest % to win. However, with 300 you have the added advantage of pressuring BR1 and BR2. I don't know what they will bet, but probably enough to cover your win at a minimum. The last bettor between them should probable bet an amount that would put him/her in 3rd if all win or lose. I then looked at Wong's book and the best example I could find was at the bottom of page 57 (example 3 for 1 winner). Would I do this at the table? I don't know. Larry
