3 seats in WSOB at HO-CHUNK (Wisconsin)

Discussion in 'World Series of Blackjack' started by toolman1, Oct 29, 2005.

  1. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    The HO-CHUNK casino will be awarding 3 seats into the WSOB through 3 satellites in Jan. & Feb. 2006. From the information I got, only satellite winners nationwide will get a seat. No free rides - you must win to get in.

    I posted as much detail as I know in the EVENT CALENDAR. Good luck to everyone who enters. :cheers:
     
  2. noman

    noman Top Member

    WSOB at HO-Chunk

    Hey toolman1, my very best friend or closest geographical contact. I'm getting dizzy. Are the Ho_chunks satelittes for the wsob on game show, the new 15 trillion promised replacement to the Hilton, or the new guards Ultimate BJ tour?

    Maybe Norm could weigh in on this. No illusion to a TX comment.
     
  3. noman

    noman Top Member

    Ho=chuncks

    Sorry, that should have read allusion. Stupid spell checker on homophones.
     
  4. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    Soon !!

    Has it been 15 trillion promises for the Hilton replacement tournament.Trust me on this one we are trying our best to get this nailed down as soon as possible.You all will be the first to hear about it on the radio show.I in a trillion years never thought it would take this long but trust us we will do our best to get it done.New guard old guard this tournament will be for the good of all just like season 2 of the UBT, it will be open to all
     
  5. noman

    noman Top Member

    35 Trillion tourney

    Hey bannana Norm!

    thanks for the clarification. I do know yous guys are doin your best. On behalf of all the goat hoarders out here, I commend you efforts. I state this sincerely. sorry out of seven tries, well you know the rest!
     
  6. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    HO-CHUNK for the WSOB

    The HO-CHUNK satelites are for the WSOB to be broadcast on the GAME SHOW NETWORK. They are changing the way to get in for the first time. My understanding is that there will be no invites. The only way to get a seat is by winning a satellite which opens it up to everyone.

    I'm going to revise the EVENT CALENDAR posting of this event to reflect the fact that equity is on the poor side. Half of the entry fees go into the $1,000,000 pize pool and the other half goes to GSN for production costs.

    Noman:
    On a different note, check out the BLUE CHIP's November tournament. Their last event of the year is $10,000 first prize guaranteed.
     
  7. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    Am I Missing something ? Sorry out of seven tries ?.You must be new to tournament play.
     
  8. noman

    noman Top Member

    Blue Chip

    toolman 1.

    Thanks for the heads up. but, you and I's only salvation now is that it's Thanksgiving Week.

    With the announcement of $10,000 gauranteeeeeeed. Expect to see a lot of new faces.

    I still say, If I make it, I'll look for you in your tool belt.

    You'll find me in my white/gray wig and beard.
     
  9. noman

    noman Top Member

    Joep--Tourney Play

    Rosanna-bannana-Norm:

    Yeah, I guess I'm new to tourney play. Less than 30 in three years.

    Anything I do wothwhile, I attribute to K. Smith. Though, arrogantly, before I won the second tourney, I ever entered, I figured out most of the nuances, even the surrender trap you love so much and K had to reluctantly reveal in one of his posts.

    I will admit after winning only the second ever entered, I thought, it would be easy and that I knew something.

    well, the more I play, I realize, I don't know as much as I thought.

    And when matched against tourney pros, I'm like a little leaguer with a 95 mile an hour fastball trying to pitch in a major league game. Speed ain't everything. Ball movement and location matter just as much.

    That's what seasoning will do for you.

    But, I'll keep plugging away. When I can. And we'll celebrate my victory with a banana and a shot!

    And I do enjoy the radio show. And I do appreciate yous guys efforts for the 75 trillion tourney.
     
  10. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    One Big Family

    Noman we do it all for you and all the others that come here in search of answer to their tournament questions .Whatever Kenny E and I can do for the blackjack tournament community in regards to the 2 Million Dollar Tournament is icing on the big tournament bubble that is ready to explode in 2006.We are glad you like our radio show and we will continue to do our best in providing everyone current and updated news in the blackjack tournament world.

    The radio show can be heard live every Thursday night at 6 PM Pacifc Time and the re-broadcast can be heard on Saturday at 3 PM Pacific Time

    Its on KLAV 1230 on the AM Dial in Las Vegas

    Or on the internet at

    www.klav1230am.com/lowbandwith/liveonair.htm
     
  11. noman

    noman Top Member

    Blue Chip:

    Toolman 1:

    Paged You to the casino cage on level three where the tourney was. guess I looked too intimidating to approach, or ya didn't hear the page, or weren't there. Too bad.

    Maybe cause Boyd's is consolidating on other fronts and cutting in other areas, the Nov. tourney was a phenomenal expectation.

    Gauranteed $10.000 first. 2nd-$2,000. 3rd-$3,000, 4th-$1,000, 5th-$500, 6th $300 and 7th-!00. Or aw shucks, my memory. second thru 7th could have been higher, cause I figured $18,000 in payout and the limit was 126 playas @$100. It filled. So no rebuys at the discount rate, which would have been $12,600 in take, but they also gave at least 20 previous placers or favored playas free enty.


    Didn't make previous two, but a number of playas I talked to said Oct and Sept filled, with $10,000 first gauranteed.

    One to keep eye on for 2006.

    Those who don't know. Be aware. First round one advances out of seven at table. No top limit bet.

    Second round top two advance. Still no top limit bet.

    Results in six qualifiers and one wild card and still no top limit bet.

    Toolman can correct me as always, but I'm sure he or I will be able to relay info for 2006.
     
  12. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Blue Chip - nothing to do with WSOB

    Noman:

    Didn't hear any page relating to me (don't normally listen if I'm not expecting a page). Sorry.

    Yes, the Nov. event was full, as I expected, with a $18,000 guaranteed prize pool. Great positive equity although their format, as you detailed, leaves something to be desired. Maybe they will change it next year - hope springs eternal.

    As for the Sept. & Oct. events, your sources are dead wrong as far as attendance goes. But we alrerady went through this. No need to beat a dead horse.

    Let's say we drop the Blue Chip discussion on the thread.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2005
  13. noman

    noman Top Member

    toolman1-Blue Chip

    I'd be happy to drop the general discussion of the Blue Chip.

    But, as this site was proposed as a community, with sharing of mediocre to great recommendations, I feel, I must alert others on the site to outstandingly postive expectations.

    Unfortunately for me, the only place I can give half A's info about is the Blue Chip. I'm not a big Indian Casino fan, tobacco and casinos are their revenge.

    And I don't particularly care for all the other non Vegas sites. Not enough variety to the just gamble.

    With an Indian Casino going up shortly, just 5 miles from the Blue Chip, the incentives there should be outstanding. And they just changed their comps program again. They cashed everyone out and will be starting a new program. details I don't have yet. But they surprised me with my cash out, since the only thing I've done there in the last year was play in four tourneys.

    Good fortune.
     
  14. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Disappointed with initial registration

    On Saturday, Dec. 10, 2005, the Ho-Chunk started their in person registration for the 3 WSOB satellites they are sponsoring. Considering that the registration started right after a monthly tournament, and therefore a lot of tournament players were there, I thought the numbers were disappointing.

    The are 378 seats available (126 x 3). Only about 25 or so seats were sold. The vast majority were for the first satellite on Jan. 7, 2006. One possible reason for the low initial registration is that the players at the Ho-Chunk are accustomed the entry fees in the area of $50. They may not want to caugh up $400. Don't know for sure. This is just a guess.

    I haven't received any announcement in the mail from them about the WSOB satellites. Maybe that's forthcoming, don't know. I just hope they can get their numbers up. Just have to wait and see.
     
  15. Snapper

    Snapper New Member

    Ho Chunk update

    Sisters & Brothers:
    I just registered for the Jan. 7 tournament this morning (toolman, thanks for your recent postings). Here's what I found out over the phone.

    1) Good news - as of earlier today there were still less than 50 registrants.

    2) The registration fee must be paid in cash (the state gaming commission won't allow the fee to be paid via credit card over the phone); the registration table will be open until 10 pm the previous night of the tournament (Friday).

    3) One's SS# and signature will suffice for tax info to claim your winnings (you don't have to possess the physical social security card).
     
  16. noman

    noman Top Member

    WSOB--Ho Chunk

    Please help me. I'm typing and I can't shut up.

    I don't know what other qualifying sites are doing. Yeah, they've been posted.

    But, $400. at HoChunk, for the supposed $50,000. seat, to win the mil.
    First place out of 126 gets the seat and a grand.
    And payouts on down to getting entry back.

    I don't know. There's been a lot of discussion about the WSOB qualifiers.

    But, if by sharing on this site, were all supposed to become more intelligent and achieving advantage players, then the posts I've seen so far on WSOB qualifiers don't make it (WSOB) much of a good equity play.

    Compare Hilton's format and payout.

    Your grand, there, got you two nights stay and entry into the monthly where top prize was 20,000 grand. But top 18 each month qualified for the mill., plus after fifth or sixth, or tenth, got their $1,000 back.

    If being on TV is so important, then shoot some stupid home pet videos. Me thinks you'd, (all) have a better chance at lesser cost.

    Tourney's offer a chance to win some big money for a skilled player or in many cases for a lucky casual player. An opportunity to win big bucks in one weekend, instead of grinding it out over a length of time under constantly changing conditions. But, if everyone strives to play basic strategy, for the edge, and counters ply their trade and some numbers workers spend time stating why it's a .002 better play to do it their way and we all buy in to that, THEN....We All, you...shouldn't go for a terrible equity tourney just because you could make TV. Buy a lottery ticket instead.

    And wait for the UBT and the new(Hilton) replacement.
     
  17. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Equity

    Ho-Chunk's WSOB qualifiers are positive equity, TV appearance notwithstanding. For an average player a seat is at the WSOB is worth $1M/40 = $25K. In addition to that the prize pool is $9K at the final table and 35 * $400 = $14K at the semifinals. The prize pool is 25 + 9 + 14 = $48K. $48K/126 seats = $381. The first 50 to register get a free night stay at their hotel. That's a $99 value. Other players get a discounted rate of $60 - a $39 value. Additionally, the champion is going to get comps and freebies at the WSOB. That puts your equity over the $400 buy-in, assuming they fill every seat at the tournament.

    It seems highly doubtful at this point they're going to fill every spot, or even come close. If we disregard comps, if 120 players show up, the seat is worth $48K/120 = $400. Any less and it's a positive equity tournament - for an average player. At this point less than 50 players have registered.

    If we calculate value, instead of equity, we get an even better picture. Lets assume a worst case scenario of a full tournament of 126 players. Lets also assume you're a stonger than average player, whose probability of losing a table at this tournament, is only 90% that of the average player. Remember, we're still assuming you'll be average at the WSOB.

    Your probability of winning a qualifier is 1 - (0.90 * 4/6) = 40%. Your probability of winning a semifinal if you get there is 1 - (0.90 * 5/6) = 25%. Your probability of winning the final if you get there is 1 - (0.90 * 6/7) = 23%.

    We assume the value of a championship is $26K, the value of a 2nd - 7th place finish is $8K/6 = $1,333, and the value of an 8th - 42nd place finish is $400. The finalists aren't going to be allowed to chop the $8K prize pool for 2nd - 7th, but we assume they'll be focused on winning the table and the paydown will be entirely the luck of the draw.

    Your probability of being a finalist is 40% * 25% = 10%. Your probability of winning is 10% * 23% = 2.3%.

    The probability of winning $400 is 40% - 10% = 30%. $400 * 30% = $120. The probability of winning $1,333 is 10% - 2.3% = 7.7%. $1,333 * 7.7% = $103. The probability of winning $26K is 2.3%. $26K * 2.3% = $598.

    The expected value of the Ho-Chunk WSOB qualifiers, for the strong player above, assuming a full turnout, is $120 + $103 + $598 = $821 plus freebies.

    Good luck to all who travel to the land of cheeseheads! :D
     
  18. Count de McArds

    Count de McArds New Member

    Nice Analysis Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem,

    Nice analysis you laid out for all. One can subjectively adjust (Bayesian Statistics if you will) any factors as necessary based on one's perceived ability or perhaps more importantly, an assessment of "the competition" and come up with the value or equity. This type analysis is not limited to the bifurcated tournament in the example, but should be done for not only any tournament that one considers, but also this principle can also be applied "intra-tournament" if "in the money" when deciding the value of a higher prize (with more risk of attainment) vs. a lower prize (that has a higher probability of success). Nice work.

    The Count
     
  19. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Dito

    DITO DITO DITO Really great analysis monkeysystem. Now about that picture ....
     
  20. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    WSOB Sign-ups

    As of last night Ho-Chunk had 29 people signed up for the satellite on January 7. They only had a few signed up for January 21. I don't know about February 4.

    Buy-in is $400 and rebuys are $200. Qualifying rounds are 2/6, and you win $400 if you win a qualifying round and get to the semifinals. There are scheduled to be seven semifinals at 6/1. So far there are less people signed up than are programmed to be in the semifinals.
     

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