Week Two, World Series of Blackjack 2

Players: Russ Hamilton, Marshall Sylver, Ken Smith, Charlene Ono, Leann Moell

This show airs tonight, Friday Jan 28th at 10 PM Eastern, with repeats at 1 AM, Saturday @ 8 PM, Sunday @ 7 PM, and Tuesday @ 10 PM.

Again I'm away from home during the first showing, so the hand-by-hand synopsis will be delayed for a few days.

But you don't have to wait to jump in and make fun of my appearance on the show! Blast away!

Among the players this week, I'm the only one who is a participant here at BJT, as far as I know. Any of you other guys out there???

In addition, anyone who is attending the Gulfport Grand tournament this weekend is welcome to join us in the sportsbar on the second floor for the viewing tonight.

 

Hi Agent

Nice to see you're still hanging around.
I hope to post an episode recap tonight.

 

Episode recap (part 1)

World Series of Blackjack 2, Episode 2

Tonight's players are introduced:

Russ Hamilton, a veteran gambling pro, won lots of blackjack tournaments before setting his sights on poker, where he won the World Series of Poker final event. Russ on tournament play: "If they're just good blackjack players that think they can come in and play tournaments, they're kidding themselves."

Marshall Sylver is a professional hypotist and entertainer who's also a high-roller. He hopes to get in the heads of the other players and "make them take bigger risks than they should be taking."

Ken Smith is a tournament pro from Hattiesburg, MS. Max says "His BlackjackTournaments.com is the preeminent website for tournament players." Ken: "I seriously considered removing my strategy articles for a couple of weeks" prior to this event.

Charlene Ono is a longshoreman who hails from Long Beach, CA. She's played tournaments for 10 years. On card-playing in general, it's in her blood. "I've been playing forever."

Leann Moell, from San Diego, is a dealer and pit person at Barona Casino, playing her first tournament. Leann: "I'll probably double down on blackjack, or split my tens."

Each player is staked with $100,000 for the 25-hand round. Betting limits are $1000 to $50,000. Late surrender is allowed in the six-deck game, and the dealer stands on all 17s.

The players are seated, starting in seat one: Russ, Marshall, Ken, Charlene, and Leann. If everyone stays to the end, Leann will be on the betting button on the final hand.

Hand 1:
Minimum bets are the norm, except for a $5000 lead-off wager by Charlene. Against a dealer 9, Russ has a blackjack, and Leann has a 12. Asking for a nine and getting it, Leann says she knew she should have bet $50,000. When a dealer pat 19 pays Charlene and Leann, Marshall notes that "The women are in it together." Matt: "Marshall, the women are always in it together."

Hand 2:
Charlene sticks with what's working, a $5000 bet. Marshall is the only other non-min-bet at $2000. Russ picks up his second blackjack of the night on hand two. Some of Charlene's pre-game interview pops in, and Charlene warns that when the feeling comes to her, she "just may do it". Matt and Max note that an hunch-betting player can be a dangerous opponent. A dealer 18 pays Marshall and Charlene while Ken pushes.

Hand 3:
Charlene fires up a $4000 bet, while we're being introduced to Marshall, the professional hypnotist. Max relates a story of Marshall winning $1.2 million at a Vegas casino and being subsequently barred even though noone could figure out why he was winning. An eleven for Charlene against a dealer deuce looks to be a typical double. It's not at all typical when she turns it into the only winning hand at the table when the dealer draws to 20.

Hand 4:
Charlene has developed a $16,000 early lead, and bets $4000. Leann bets $2000, Russ sticks with $1000, Marshall $2000, and Ken $1000. When Charlene surrenders 15v7 on a hunch, the next three players bust out leaving Ken as the sole survivor against the dealer Deanna. Ken doubles his 10, but the dealer Deanna draws out to 21. When his doubled hand is revealed as a losing 20, Ken makes the outcomes on hand 4 unanimous.


Hand 6:
Russ: $100,000
Marshall: $93,000
Ken: $95,000
Charlene: $121,000
Leann: $98,000

This time it's Ken's disembodied head overlaid on the screen, advocating a strategy Max labels as contrarian. (Those of you following along in the Viktor-inspired WSOB drinking game, take two shots.) Charlene is back to $5000 bets, while everyone else bets one or two chips. An Ace up for Deanna elicits a $1000 insurance bet by Charlene. Max and Matt chastise her for taking the sucker bet, but when Deanna does indeed have the blackjack, Max notes that "sometimes it's good to be the lucky sucker at the table." Matt: "She has got the touch tonight!"

Hand 7:
Marshall leads off with $3000, Ken $1000, Charlene "sees" Marshall's 3 and raises 1. Max: "Wrong game, Charlene." Leann bets $2000, and Russ sticks with $1000. Russ and Ken are getting pretty predictable in bet sizes. Marshall delivers the worst line of the night when he's dealt 16 against Deanna's 10: "From the moment I saw you, I knew I had to... surrender." Charlene's lucky streak continues, making a pretty hand of 6-7-8. She needs every bit when Deanna has a pat 20. Again Charlene is the only winner.

Hand 8:
Charlene increases her bet to $7000 while Marshall takes his turn in the pop-up, noting that the game usually comes down to what cards you're getting. Deanna looks under her King up, and says "Hmmm." Max asks "What does that mean?" Good question, Max. All we know is it's not an Ace. Charlene's $7000 bet looks like it's at risk when she draws a 6 on her 8-2. But she recovers by drawing a 4 for 20. Deanna's "Hmm" was about a 5 in the hole, but her 15 turns into 20. Charlene pushes; Everyone else loses. Is there an echo in here?

We get a filler break next, showing the appropriate hand signals for playing blackjack. Then George Joseph talks about why hand signals are important to the dealer and surveillance.

Hand 9:
Charlene backs off to $2000, and for the first time doesn't have the largest bet on the table when Leann and Marshall both bet $3000. By now, you know Russ and Ken's bets. Matt notes that Marshall is in last place, having won only one of the first 8 hands. Marshall is excited about getting a face card, but it's more of the same old same old when his second card is a six. Deanna's Ace sends her around the table asking for insurance. No one bites, including Ken who notes "Obviously, if Charlene doesn't take insurance... (we don't need it)". However, the Charlene indicator was flawed this hand. Perhaps he should have noted Charlene's smaller than usual bet as a better canary test. Deanna has a face card in the hole.

Hand 11:
Russ: $95,000
Marshall: $83,500
Ken: $91,000
Charlene: $120,000
Leann: $88,000

Max notes that Ken hasn't won a bet yet. Marshall bets $3000 and tries to goad Charlene into a bigger bet. Charlene responds "I've shown more guts than anyone else at this table." Charlene bets $4000 and Leann $3000. Matt thinks Leann should have either bet $1000 or enough to go for the lead, since she was last to act on this hand. That's reasonable advice, but on the other hand, it's still early. A dealer 17 pays Ken for the first time and Marshall wins as well. Charlene actually lost a double, the first real chink in her armor. Leann's pop-up lets us in on part of her strategy, where she expects to start making her move on the 5th to 10th hand. She's a little late, but as Matt notes, it was a good thing she didn't do anything this hand.

Hand 12:
Marshall bets $4000, Charlene $6000, Leann $3000. Charlene says she's "waiting for the day that Ken and Russ bet more than $1000". Meanwhile she gets 11v5 for another double. Russ hits 4,4 instead of splitting. Matt: "Basic strategy says split". Max: "Russ's strategy says hold on to the chips." A dealer 18 pushes Russ, beats everyone else except of course Charlene who makes 21.

We now get an oddly chosen topic for filler, a demonstration of several cheating moves by George Joseph. At least Max notes that "Card counting is legal, but that move will get you put in jail." Matt chimes in pointing out that advantage play is legal, but casinos can exclude you for using your brain.

Hand 14:
Now we get some action from Leann. After a $3000 lead-off bet by Charlene, Leann pushes $20,000 in the circle. Marshall's $4000 wager surprises Matt and Max, who figured we should all stay out of Leann's way this hand. Marshall picks up $6000 with a blackjack, and Ken gets $1500 for another. Leann stands with A-2-T vs 3. Other than the two blackjacks, every hand at the table is a 13, including Deanna who busts hers to pay the table. The high-fiving ladies are leading the pack.

Hand 16:
Russ: $92,000
Marshall: $84,500
Ken: $90,500
Charlene: $126,000
Leann: $99,000

Small bets mostly, and a dealer bust. Charlene extends her lead by winning $6000.

Hand 17:
Another $6000 bet from Charlene with everyone else laying back. As Deanna deals the cards, we hear about Russ' victory in the 25th World Series of Poker. In addition to the million dollar first place, he won his weight in silver. Tipping the scales at over 300 pounds, Max notes that the Binions were probably rooting against him at the time. Charlene doubles A7v4, and gets paid $12K when Deanna busts on her sixth card: 4-2-2-4-3-T. Charlene's lead is $40K now.

Hand 18:
Charlene bets $7000, Leann $4000, Marshall only $4000 from last position. Ken blackjacks, Charlene stands with 20, Leann makes a 4-card 21. Deanna makes a 20.

Hand 19:
Russ: $93,000
Marshall: $87,500
Ken: $94,000
Charlene: $144,000
Leann: $108,000

Starting at the button, Charlene bets $7000, Leann $3000, Russ $1000, Marshall $4000. With last bet and 7 hands to go in the round, Ken finally comes off the minimum bets with a big move and a $30,000 bet. We see more of Ken's pre-game interview but it's virtually identical to the earlier soundbite. "Do what the other players aren't." Ken looks good with a twenty, but Deanna turns up an Ace. Ken says "Don't make me regret this decision, but no insurance." No regrets indeed, and Ken makes up a lot of ground this hand. Meanwhile, Charlene insured for $3K, doubled her $7K bet, and lost all three bets for a total of $17K on the hand. It all adds up to a Charlene lead over Ken of only $3000, down from $50K the hand before.

-- continued in next post --

 

Episode recap (part 2)

Hand 20:
Russ: $94,000
Marshall: $91,500
Ken: $124,000
Charlene: $127,000
Leann: $112,500

Leann bets $5000, Russ $1000 (Ken to Russ: You are a very patient man.), Marshall $6000, Ken $10,000, Charlene $12,000. Nice bet by Charlene, keeping the low over Ken by $1000. Against a dealer 8, Leann makes a four-card 20, Russ stands with 18. Marshall doubles a 10, saying "I believe." Ken hits 4-A-2-T, and Charlene doubles another 11. Deanna draws 8-2-2-2-5 for 19, and Charlene's double-down luck has ended as well. Leann takes the lead, Ken is second, and for the first time all game, third-place Charlene has given up the lead.

Hand 21:
Russ: $93,000
Marshall: $91,500
Ken: $114,000
Charlene: $103,000
Leann: $117,500

Russ leads off $1000. Marshall steps up to the plate with $10,000, Ken $7000. Max notes that Ken stays ahead of Marshall with a loss/win but also bets enough to challenge Leann. Charlene makes a questionable bet of $8000, which seems simultaneously risky and ineffective. Leann bets $15,000, an amount which has its own set of problems. However, her bet looks just fine when she draws a blackjack on it. Russ busts, Marshall draws to 17, and Ken debates for a bit and then doubles his 9v7. Max likes it, and I'll discuss it in a later post. Charlene busts, Deanna draws to 19, and Ken gives a sigh of relief when his double card yields a push.

Hand 22:
Russ: $92,000
Marshall: $81,500
Ken: $114,000
Charlene: $95,000
Leann: $140,000

The button is on Marshall who bets $30,000. Max and Matt don't like it, but I do. A double for him will take the lead if Leann pushes or loses, and he can surrender and regroup next hand if needed. Ken bets $28,000, a straight attempt to take the lead (and $500 over that possible Marshall double.) Charlene chooses to coast again with a $5000 bet. If you're pulling for the dealer, why risk more than the minimum here? Leann's $11000 is fairly benign, and actually offers a few benefits that aren't immediately obvious. The big news this hand is that the button has finally passed Russ for the last time, and it's time to get in the game. I think he's been far too patient, and he now finds that the whole table has significant bets working which dilutes his efforts. Still, he's got to get going, and he bets half his bank: $46K.

Everyone's cards are ugly except Leann's. She gets a second consecutive blackjack. Charlene has 13, everyone else has 15. Deanna shows a Jack, and takes a long time looking underneath. Marshall busts, Ken surrenders, Charlene draws to 20, and Russ stands with 15. When Deanna flips over a pat 20, Russ sees he was fooled by Deanna's long look underneath the Jack.

More filler, with another cheating move demonstrated by George Joseph.

Hand 23:
Russ: $46,000
Marshall: $51,500
Ken: $100,000
Charlene: $95,000
Leann: $156,500

Ken bets a surprising $1000 (more fodder for a follow-up post), Charlene $5000, Leann $1500, Russ all-in $46,000, Marshall $45,000 (what's up with that extra $5000 held back?). Russ gets his second consecutive $46K hand of 15. Marshall is in the same fix with 15. Ken has 12, Charlene blackjack, Leann 13. A face card up for Deanna. Ken busts, Leann busts, Russ busts and is out of chips. Marshall busts and is effectively finished as well.

In his exit interview, Russ defends his patient approach, and reveals more details about Deanna's peek-fake on hand 22. We see a replay of Deanna looking under the face card 3 times, only to later reveal a pat 20. Quite a sly move by Deanna. Could this be the effect of Max whispering hints in her ear before she looks? (Note to self: If I'm in WSOB3, ignore any possible dealer tells.)

Hand 24:
Marshall: $6500
Ken: $99,000
Charlene: $102,500
Leann: $155,000

The button is on Charlene, but with only two hands to go, I think she needs to make something happen in a hurry. She apparently disagrees, betting $7500. Leann takes a catch-me-if-you-can attitude with $1000. Marshall's all-in, and Ken takes his plunge with a $40,000 bet. The $40K does a lot. He takes the lead with a blackjack or a winning double, yet he can surrender and still have at least half the chipstack of Leann. While surrender would be a desperate move, it's not out of the question since Leann will be playing first on the final hand.

The cards come out, and Ken gets what he was hoping for, a basic strategy double of 9v3. Charlene has soft 19, Leann has 14, Marshall 12. Charlene doubles, Leann busts, Marshall stands, and Ken doubles for the full $40,000. A win gives him exactly a half-max-bet lead plus position over Leann in the final hand. Deanna has a different plan though. Her 3 up has a ten in the hole, but she finds an 8 to make a devastating 21 against Ken's now meaningless double-down card. (It was a four anyway.)

Going into the final hand, all the chips are on the ladies' end of the table.

Hand 25:
Ken: $19,000
Charlene: $87,500
Leann: $154,000

Leann leads off with a bet of $2000, which Max accurately identifies as a mistake. A $21,500 or more bet instead would cover Charlene if she gets all her money working. It opens up the possibility of a swing (She could lose $21,500+ while Charlene wins $50K), but it's worth it. Ken goes all-in for $19K, and Charlene bets $40,000. Leann gets a 12, and both Ken and Charlene have 20s, against a Deanna face-card.

Max points out that Charlene must split to have a chance at first place. Leann's play is meaningless, Ken stands with 20, and it's all up to Charlene. She waves off her twenty, locking herself into a guaranteed second place.

Leann advances into the semifinals, and Charlene earns a spot in the wild-card round. Casino Night? How about Ladies Night!

(While Charlene's final hand play blindsided me and ended any chance of me advancing on a long-shot, I think it was the correct decision for her after all. Just in case, after the round, we had Deanna expose the next two cards. The outcome would have been the same if Charlene had split the tens.)

That's it for this week's episode. Unfortunately this will be the last episode I get to experiment with this funky third-person/first-person thing.

Leann :1st:
Charlene :2nd:
Ken :3rd:

 

Explanation of my bets

Here's a recap of each of my key decisions in this round:

Hand 19: The button just passed me, so this is the one hand out of every five when I get to see the leader's bet. I'm behind Charlene by exactly a max bet of $50K, and she has bet $7000. If she wins this hand, I would need to make up more than $57000 this hand to catch her. I rounded that figure up to $60K, and bet half of that in case I got a double-down.

There are two bet amounts I like better than my actual $30,000 here. I could have bet $30,500 instead and a double would have covered a possible blackjack by Charlene. Or, I could have conserved an extra $1000 with a $29,000 bet and still accomplished everything $30K did. Nit-picking yes, but they are both better bets than my round $30K. I got lazy.

Charlene's poor decisions on the hand almost let me catch up to her without doubling, but not quite.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hand 20: My $10K is OK, but there are several ways to improve on it. I underestimated Charlene on this hand, and she made a nice bet behind me. (I figured her to just match my bet instead of bet the excess $2000). A bet of $15K is a classic rule-of-5 play and would have been a better bet. In this case, bet granularity affects the situation, and $14K also accomplishes what rule-of-5 usually does, so that's better yet.

Again Charlene bails me out, taking a double-down I would have skipped in her spot and giving me back the low over her. However, Leann swings us both and takes the lead.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hand 21: I'm $3500 out of the lead, and don't want to take much risk this hand, so I opt for a rule-of-2 bet of $7000. I don't really expect an optimal bet from Leann behind me, so I'm more coasting along than anything else. Max's comment about this bet not risking a win/loss swing against Marshall is accurate, but it's more a side-effect of a generally conservative bet this hand.

Once Leann blackjacks, I regret being conservative, and opt to take the somewhat risky 9v7 double. Winning it won't catch Leann, but it will help and I don't think the extra $7000 risk is too expensive. I was lucky to get out with a push though.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hand 22: I'm $26,000 behind Leann now, and my $28,000 bet covers two things nicely. I take the lead with a win/push by Leann, or also a win/win if Leann decides to bet the minimum $1000 this hand. I also eclipse a double-win by Marshall by $500 with a single win of my own.

I didn't seriously consider playing my 15vT instead of surrendering. Another Leann blackjack means the surrender puts me more than a max bet back, but I'll be betting behind her on 2 of the 3 last hands, so I'd rather save the extra $14K this hand by surrendering.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hand 23: I actually had forgotten this $1000 bet when I was on the button, until I saw the show, and it surprised me as well as Max. Still, I don't mind it. I'm already going to have to have good things happen on the last two hands. Risking some of my chips this hand when they are betting behind me doesn't seem like good value here. Again, I'm counting on Leann's inexperience, and the fact that I'll be betting behind her twice. This is a coin-flip decision for me now. I don't have a strong opinion whether $1000 or a bunch is better on this hand. After the cards were dealt, the $1000 turned out to be the winning coin-flip.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hand 24: It's showtime now. I've got to make up my ground, hopefully on this single hand. My $40K bet is explained in the show recap. It takes the lead with a blackjack or a double-down. I don't think I'll surrender in many cases here, but at least I retain the option and I'm not mathematically locked out on the last hand. I haven't considered what circumstances might cause me to surrender this hand though. If I had gotten a worse double, I would have doubled for less to barely pass Leann. However, a basic strategy double offered my the opportunity to take a meaningful $25,000 lead over Leann. If I cash it, I actually don't even think she's sure to make a max bet on the last hand, so it's stronger still. At this point, I really like my chances. I have a 50% shot to have a great lead and position on the final hand. I'm also about 7% to push and have to make up the gap again.
Dealer 10-3-8. Ouch!

------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you find these thoughts informative about the round. While there were tweaks I could have made here and there, I was pretty happy with my play. I wasn't so happy about the outcome of course!

 

Betting on betting

Hehe, now you have me wondering. How specific were the choices? Big/small, or exact amounts. And, what was Curt's prediction?

 

AC's commentary

I'd like to weigh in on one of Anthony Curtis' points in his excellent commentary over at Las Vegas Advisor:

Anthony Curtis: "Ken makes an excellent $28,000 bet on hand 22, but then surrenders. I don’t like it. Yes, he had a 15 vs. 10 (and the dealer wound up with 20, so he saved chips), but I don’t like surrendering with time running out and being behind. I’d have played it out then come back hard splitting my 86,000 bankroll. Ken has his reasons for doing this (see the analysis at his site listed above)."

Here's my analysis he's referring to:

KenSmith: "I didn't seriously consider playing my 15vT instead of surrendering. Another Leann blackjack means the surrender puts me more than a max bet back, but I'll be betting behind her on 2 of the 3 last hands, so I'd rather save the extra $14K this hand by surrendering."

Upon further thought, I've decided Anthony is right here. I should have played this hand out. Conserving an extra $14K of chips doesn't mean much, but winning $28K is a tremendous help. I can't remember now whether I considered the effect of Russ's bet on my decision, but I'm almost certain I overlooked it. If Russ wins, he goes to $138,000. If I win my $28K, I go to $142,000. That extra piece of information makes this decision a slam-dunk. I should have played the hand out.