Week Five (Wild Card Round), World Series of Blackjack 2

Week 5, Wild Card Round
Friday Feb 18, 10 PM premiere, 1 AM encore
Sat Feb 19, 8 PM
Tue Feb 22, 10 PM

This is the first Wild Card round in World Series of Blackjack 2, featuring the four second-place finishers from weeks one to four. The winner of this table gets $5000 and a seat at the semifinal table.

Tonight's players are:
Hollywood Dave Stann, Charlene Ono, Robert Blechman, Nancy Kubasek

Post your thoughts about the show here, and I'll have a recap posted over the weekend.

 

Show Recap part 1

We've seen all of our four players before, where each finished second in their initial table appearance. Tonight they'll be fighting for their survival, since only one of them advances to the semifinal round while the rest are eliminated. Since there are four players at the table rather than five, the rules specify that this round has 28 hands instead of 25 like the others. That way, if everyone stays in, each player is on the button an equal number of times.

Robert Blechman is in seat one, followed by Nancy Kubasek, Hollywood Dave Stann and Charlene Ono. Charlene will have the button on hand 28 if noone makes an early exit.

Hand 1:
Robert and Nancy lead off with $1000 bets, Dave bets $6000, and Charlene $4000. The first hand is a blackjack table dream, with 7 out of 8 player cards being tens, against a dealer 6. Charlene has the only non-twenty at the table with 18. However, among the pat twenties, only Nancy stands. Robert and Dave both split tens, making 18/21 and 15/20 respectively. A dealer 18 adds $1000 to Robert and Nancy's bankrolls and pushes Dave and Charlene.

Hand 2:
Robert......$101,000....$2000....JA
*Nancy......$101,000....$1000....A9
Dave........$100,000....$6000....TA
Charlene....$100,000....$4000....76
Dealer 48223

Hand 3:
Robert......$104,000....$1000....755
Nancy.......$102,000....$1000....6K
*Dave.......$109,000....$3500....A7 Dbl 8
Charlene....$ 96,000....$4000....JJ
Dealer 32AA

When Dave backs off a bit on his bet amount, we hear from Max that he's switched to a 1/30th of his bankroll negative progression. Max is predicting bets of 1/30th, 1/15th, 1/7th, 1/3rd, and all-in for Dave if he hits a losing streak.

Hand 4:
Robert......$104,000....$2000....A8
Nancy.......$101,000....$1000....4Q
Dave........$102,000....$6000....6K
*Charlene...$100,000....$5000....34Q
Dealer 6K4

That's more like the Deanna we know from earlier episodes, making 20 out of 16. Now we're rolling.

Hand 5:
*Robert.....$102,000....$ 1000....92 Dbl 7
Nancy.......$100,000....$ 1000....28 Dbl 4
Dave........$ 96,000....$12500....7Q
Charlene....$ 95,000....$ 5000....5337
Dealer 3J2A8

Dave's progression bet pays off, and he takes the lead.

Skip to Hand 7:
Robert......$104,000....$3000....65 Dbl 7
Nancy.......$101,500....$2000....AT
*Dave.......$105,000....$6500....47 Dbl $3500 Q
Charlene....$ 97,500....$6000....T7
Dealer K9

Now we get a dose of Dave's attitude from his interview: "I'm the bad boy of blackjack. Of course I'm going to tell you I'm the most skilled person ever, ever, ever. If skill has anything to do with it, I should be the winner." Max says he's humble too, but then gives him props as a brilliant player.

After Deanna peeks, Dave says he's terrified, and doubles for less "based on things that I couldn't disclose at this point." Max attributes it to Dave picking up a tell, but I think if that were the case Dave wouldn't double at all. I think he's just showboating.

Hand 8:
Robert......$ 98,000....$1000....Q26
Nancy.......$104,500....$3000....6J Surr
Dave........$115,000....$3000....3T6
*Charlene...$ 91,500....$6500....6K Surr
Dealer 975

It's a typical Deanna 21, though she let the ladies out for half price.

Hand 9:
*Robert.....$ 97,000....$1000....53A
Nancy.......$103,000....$1000....JQ
Dave........$112,000....$6000....42T
Charlene....$ 88,250....$4000....62K
Dealer 649

Charlene's losing streak stretches to four in a row, and her middle-sized bets are starting to dig a noticeable hole.

Hand 10:
Robert......$ 97,000....$1500....94
*Nancy......$104,000....$1000....T8
Dave........$106,000....$12500...8A
Charlene....$ 84,250....$7000....53 Dbl
Dealer 67J

We hear Charlene says she's sick of these eights, but then she doubles this one, and makes up some ground.

Hand 13:
*Robert.....$ 96,500....$1000....685
Nancy.......$106,000....$1000....J8
Dave........$111,500....$13000...584
Charlene....$ 90,250....$10000...J9
Dealer 7K

Dave tells us he's not going to correlate, he's going to accumulate. Not a bad plan at this stage of the game.

Hand 14:
Robert.....$ 97,500....$1000....T9
*Nancy.....$107,000....$1000....TJ
Dave.......$111,500....$13000...62
Charlene...$100,250....$10000...38
Dealer JA

Charlene's pop-in tells us why she's not betting small: "I can't bet $1000. I get bored to death." Her $10K bet here might have provided some extra excitement with a double opportunity, but Deanna's blackjack cut that idea off at the knees. Nancy takes the lead for the first time.

Hand 15:
Robert......$ 96,500....$1000....Q2A9
Nancy.......$106,000....$1000....8T
*Dave.......$ 98,500....$25500...JQ
Charlene....$ 90,250....$5000....9Q
Dealer 7K

Dave's progression is getting into serious bet territory now. His strong 20 gives him a new dose of confidence (not that he needed a boost!). Dave: "I'm always BR1 in my head." That ought to provoke a 20-message thread here at BJT.

-- continued --

 

Show Recap part 2

Hand 16:
Robert.....$ 95,500....$1000....K22K
Nancy......$107,000....$20000...T4 Surr
Dave.......$124,000....$25000...J7
*Charlene..$ 95,250....$15000...333J
Dealer K65

On this hand, the camera catches a nasty look from Charlene in Dave's direction, just as Matt and Max are noting that it's always tough to sit next to Dave. By the time the betting gets around to Dave, we get a glimpse at the magic of TV time compression. Watch closely, and you'll hear Deanna call time on Dave, who says "Ya got me. I'm stalling for time." However, on TV his bet comes just seconds after Nancy's, thanks to editing.

Nancy bails out on this hand, which looks good when Deanna draws 21. However, Nancy would have had 19 and we don't know what would happen after that. Still, with 14vT and a tall stack working, I like the surrender.

Hand 18:
Robert......$ 96,000....$20000...JJ
*Nancy......$ 97,000....$1000....4T
Dave........$105,000....$3000....2558
Charlene....$ 80,250....$15000...96
Dealer 38J

The button has now passed Robert, and we see him fire up a substantial bet for the first time. As he's done all round, he roots for whatever he doesn't want. Unfortunately, when he asks Deanna to draw to 21, she finally listens, and his big bet to take the lead goes in the tray.

Hand 19:
Robert......$ 76,000....$25000...844T
Nancy.......$ 96,000....$15000...KT
*Dave.......$102,000....$1000....9J
Charlene....$ 65,250....$25000...T9
Dealer K2A9

Dave takes a breather here, with his first minimum bet of the round. It seems an odd time to take a little pressure off. Charlene probably couldn't stand to push any more into the circle based on the cards she was getting. Robert's bet here is a third of his bank, but as Matt points out, the $25K is a little short to pass Dave. Nancy's bet doesn't have that problem, and she successfully gets an $8000 lead. Robert's bust followed by a bust by Deanna is crippling.

Hand 20:
Robert......$ 51,000....$1000....TQ
Nancy.......$111,000....$15000...9J
Dave........$103,000....$1000....JQ
*Charlene...$ 90,250....$20000...QJ
Dealer 98

Dave gets a little trash talk back from Nancy now, who asks him to show her that perfect bet. She's bet enough to surrender back and beat a Dave push. Dave opts for $1000. There's plenty of time, but he'll need it when both ladies pass him on this hand.

Hand 21:
*Robert....$ 52,000....$1000....QQ
Nancy......$126,000....$4000....5J
Dave.......$104,000....$27000...25
Charlene...$110,250....$25000...7Q
Dealer AQ

Dave debates waiting a hand before chasing Nancy, but makes an ill-fated decision to do it now. Deanna's blackjack puts a dent in his chip stack, and Charlene's as well. I bet Robert is glad the button hadn't passed him yet.

Hand 22:
Robert......$ 51,000....$1000....Q7
*Nancy......$122,000....$4000....6A Dbl 8
Dave........$ 77,000....$29000...74 Dbl 9
Charlene....$ 85,250....$40000...52T
Dealer 3T9

Nancy suddenly has a huge lead over the whole field. Dave's bet gives him a good chance of getting back within a half-max of her, and when he gets a good looking double that's just lagniappe. The dealer bust gets Dave out of his chair and back to full Dave-volume. Matt notes that "a leading Dave Stann is a loud Dave Stann." Truer words...

Hand 23:
Robert......$ 52,000....$50000...J3A8
Nancy.......$130,000....$25000...96 Surr
*Dave.......$135,000....$5500....23J8
Charlene....$125,250....$25000...AA -> AQ / A9
Dealer TJ

I don't like Dave's slight overbet here, because I don't see the point in it. Charlene takes a shot at the lead, and Robert is effectively all-in. Robert: "You guys are going to have to send me home." Nancy covers Charlene, though that goes out the window when Charlene wins two bets and Nancy surrenders half of one.

So far in this round, if you don't like the way it's going, come back one hand later.

Hand 24:
Robert......$ 2,000....$2000....3Q
Nancy.......$117,500....$1000....KA
Dave........$129,500....$1000....A9
*Charlene...$150,250....$20000...TK
Dealer 45T

Nancy and Dave are understandably reluctant to risk any chips after a $20K bet from Charlene, but with good cards around the table Charlene stretches her advantage again. Meanwhile we lose the first player as Robert makes his exit, moving the final-hand button to Nancy. Charlene now has almost a $40,000 lead and last bet.

Hand 25:
*Nancy.....$119,000....$20000...65 Dbl 9
Dave.......$130,500....$25500...K4J
Charlene...$170,250....$15000...QK
Dealer KQ

Nancy's bet should probably be at least $26K here, to give her a double possibility to pass a Charlene push. Dave doesn't bet enough to cover a double by Nancy either. Charlene admits to not knowing what to do this hand, and as Matt and Max point out, her bet is just a wee bit too much for her situation. She comes out fine though, as she and Nancy both push while Dave gets whacked. It's looking like Charlene's night.

Hand 26:
Nancy......$119,000....$50000...58
*Dave......$105,000....$50000...A7 Dbl Q
Charlene...$170,250....$1000....5462
Dealer TQ

Lots of interesting choices on this hand. The max bets from Dave and Nancy make sense. Charlene could afford a little more, particularly to cover a Dave blackjack. Dave decides to double essentially all-in with soft 18 vs a ten. I don't agree with it, but it's certainly a gutsy play that could pay huge dividends. The main problem is that's a hand where you'll frequently want to draw more than one card. Nancy's decision to stand with 13vT was the real shocker here. I didn't see any indication that there may have been a tell from Deanna, so I don't know her thinking here.

Dave delivers one of the better lines of the night while Nancy is thinking, saying the decision is turning her hair blue.

Hand 27:
Nancy......$ 69,000....$50000...86 Dbl $19,000 4
Dave.......$ 5,000....$5000....9K4
*Charlene..$169,250....$1000....AJ
Dealer 48K

Charlene is just totally unstoppable. Nancy gets a reprieve, and still has a shot, but Dave is done. Dave's post-game interview: "Luck is the devil. It takes away the skill."

Hand 28:
*Nancy.....$138,000....$50000...J6 Dbl $30,000 8
Charlene...$170,750....$35000...A7 Dbl 3
Dealer 8T

Nancy accidentally doubles for less here, but it doesn't matter since Charlene can double to take back the high regardless, and she does. Of course, it takes that extra Charlene magic to draw the 3 on a soft 18 to clinch the win.

 

Dave's comments

I agree. Dave's comments were out of line, and not even on target. Charlene played pretty well. A few bets could be tweaked here or there, but there aren't any big mistakes.

 

Hand 26 explained

I was very puzzled by Nancy's standing with 13vT on hand 26, as I'm sure some of you were as well. Here's the explanation...

It wasn't intentional. Nancy took a long time deciding whether or not to double, and she was eventually called for time before she made a decision. The rules state that if time is called, the player stands.

That was the only time anyone had a forced decision during the taping of the shows. So, that explains that.