Week Nine: MIT Mike, Brian Zembic, Eric Kiel, Jason Geraci, Michelle Richards Friday Mar 25, 10 PM premiere, 1 AM encore Sun Mar 27, 7 PM Mon Mar 28, 11 PM Tue Mar 29, 10 PM Thu Mar 30, 1 AM Post your comments here, and I'll get the full show recap up this weekend. Note the slight change in broadcast schedule. No more Saturday broadcast, but GSN has added Thursday @ 1 AM (Wednesday night).
Show Recap part 1 Who's up tonight? In seat one, we have MIT Mike, last year's champion. Any extra pressure for the returning champ? "I don't really feel any additional pressure being the defending champion... I kind of know what to expect." Sitting next to Mike is Brian Zembic from Winnipeg, a man who had someone bet him $100,000 that he wouldn't get breast implants. Well, he won the bet, and he's still got 'em. Next up is the million dollar winner from the Hilton's Million Dollar Blackjack Tournament II. Eric Kiel hails from Laredo Texas, where he's an oil field consultant. The Las Vegas Hilton event was his first-ever tournament, and he sure started out right. In seat four is Jason Geraci. He's a real estate investor from Providence, RI. Relatively new to tournaments, he's counting on his live table experience to keep up with these guys. Finishing out tonight's lineup is Michelle Richards, a former casino pit boss who is no stranger to some of her competition. She says "I've actually told several of the people that are in the tournament that they could not play where I was working." She's hoping to eliminate a few more at tonight's table. Hand 1: *Mike......$100,000....$1000....5K5 Brian......$100,000....$1000....T29 Eric.......$100,000....$1000....J8 Jason......$100,000....$2000....AK Michelle...$100,000....$3000....499 Dealer A8 Hand 2: Mike.......$101,000....$1000....66T *Brian.....$101,000....$1000....K8 Eric.......$ 99,000....$1000....865 Jason......$103,000....$2000....73 Dbl 7 Michelle...$ 97,000....$1000....KT Dealer 99 This hand we get a pop-in from Brian Zembic, who lives in a truly disturbed corner of the gambling world. Apparently there's another bet on the way involving his cleavage. He gets $50,000 to increase by a cup size, $10,000 to take them out, but must pay $20,000 if he chooses to just leave them as is. I think he and his friends should lay off the liquor. Hand 3: Mike.......$100,000....$2000....2A7 Brian......$101,000....$3000....A52T *Eric......$100,000....$1000....TJ Jason......$ 99,000....$2000....424J Michelle...$ 98,000....$1000....2QAJ Dealer J37 Brian turns up the annoying act, including calling dealer Deanna by the wrong name, Leslie. We'll see how well that strategy works. Skip to Hand 6: *Mike......$109,000....$5000....3558 Brian......$ 98,000....$5000....A62 Eric.......$102,000....$5000....28 Dbl 4 Jason......$103,000....$1000....46 Dbl 8 Michelle...$ 98,000....$15000...65 Dbl 8 Dealer 7A A couple of dealer busts on hands 4 and 5 apparently worked well for MIT Mike who has taken an early lead. He looks to stretch it here, and bets $5000 of his $6000 lead from the button. Michelle uses last bet to take a shot at catching Mike. Though her bet is a couple of thousand short to take the lead if they both win, it's still early. Her big bet looks just right when she collects a $30,000 double-down. Eric Kiel is the only loser at the table, and he suffers a $40,000 swing against Michelle. Things are getting interesting in a hurry. Hand 7: Mike.......$114,000....$25000...7K *Brian.....$103,000....$1000....9Q Eric.......$ 92,000....$1000....35 Dbl T Jason......$105,000....$5000....K3 Michelle...$128,000....$4000....69 Dealer 69AQ There are a couple of hints that the count is big here. First, a monster bet from card counting wizard MIT Mike. He has last bet here, but it's still early for a bet this size unless he thinks he has the edge on this hand. Then, notice Eric's double of 8v6. Everything pays when Deanna busts. Skip to Hand 12: Mike.......$149,000....$15000...25Q *Brian.....$106,000....$1000....7Q Eric.......$147,500....$1000....8J Jason......$ 92,000....$20000...4Q Michelle...$139,000....$15000...J3 Dealer 5KK We take a commercial break and see a spot about the Golden Nugget's smoke-free poker room while apparently all sorts of chaos has erupted at the blackjack table. During the missing 4 hands, Eric Kiel made a huge comeback, and it's quite a horserace for first, second and third chip count. By the time betting gets around to last-betting leader Mike, he has to decide whether go along with Eric who bet small, or Michelle who bet big. He goes with Michelle, and is rewarded with another Deanna bust. Matt reminds us that the count is still high here, which is more mention of card counting than most of us ever expected to make it on TV. Hand 13: Mike.......$164,000....$25000...KK Brian......$107,000....$1000....Q7Q *Eric......$148,500....$25000...TJ Jason......$112,000....$50000...JQ Michelle...$154,000....$16000...76A3 Dealer 98 Big bets abound. Michelle pushes, and Brian would have as well if he hadn't wasted his $1000 by hitting 17. Everyone else collects, and the chip stacks grow ever higher around the table. This is the kind of table where you wish it was live money. Hand 14: Mike.......$189,000....$15000...93J Brian......$106,000....$30000...K49 Eric.......$173,500....$25000...JT *Jason.....$162,000....$1000....TQ Michelle...$154,000....$20000...64 Dbl J Dealer 85T Mike holds back first low over Eric's bankroll and bets his excess chips, but ends up getting swung on the hand by both Eric and a huge double by Michelle. They both pass him, and we see another of the many lead changes in this round. Hand 15: Mike.......$174,000....$1000....T7 Brian......$ 76,000....$39000...TQ Eric.......$198,500....$1000....63 Dbl 9 Jason......$163,000....$1000....K7 *Michelle..$194,000....$15000...5A96 Dealer 72K Max groans when Brian bets $1000 more than half his bank, eliminating the possibility of splitting. We've seen that time after time so far in these episodes, sometimes from players who should know better. When Michelle collects $15K this hand, she becomes our third leader in three hands. I think Eric should have defended his lead on this hand with a bet of at least $11K, but in this case it just would have cost him more chips. Hand 16: *Mike......$173,000....$37000...7AT Brian......$115,000....$1000....4TQ Eric.......$196,500....$16000...Q5 Surrender Jason......$162,000....$50000...KJ Michelle...$209,000....$12000...J6 Surrender Dealer K9 Mike leads off with a big bet, calculated to pass Michelle if she pushes or loses. I'd normally prefer waiting a hand for the button to pass, but given the large bets we've seen around the table lately, it likely would make little difference. The real value in waiting one hand for Mike would be if Michelle and Eric both bet small on the next hand, so he could add their wins into his catch-up bet. While Eric might bet small, I don't think Michelle will. With that in mind, there's not that much reason to wait a hand. This hand is a dream result for max-betting Jason, who swings the table and becomes our fourth leader in four hands. -- continued in next post --
Show Recap part 2 Hand 17: Mike.......$136,000....$1000....K4 *Brian.....$114,000....$4000....K9 Eric.......$188,500....$25000...JK Jason......$212,000....$1000....5A Dbl 6 Michelle...$203,000....$6000....AT Dealer 4AQAQ Eric bets enough to take the lead, even considering a minimum win by Jason. If this is a precision bet by Eric including a Jason $1000 win before he even bets, it's a darned good play. It's unfortunate that Jason catches a basic strategy double here to throw a wrench in the works. As a good rule of thumb, whenever you're covering a minimum bet, cover a minimum double. It's cheap insurance. Still, nice play, Eric. (Eric posts here at BJT as mdbjII-man, a handle which is the envy of many!) Hand 18: Mike.......$137,000....$50000...6T Brian......$118,000....$50000...93 *Eric......$213,500....$12000...JJ Jason......$214,000....$1000....T3 Michelle...$212,000....$10000...JT Dealer 4T3 Let me play these one by one. Eric played this hand better than I would have. I'd probably use the rule of 5 and bet $2500 here since I trail by $500. I figure it's a cheap shot at the lead. However, it's much more likely that Jason and Michelle would margin me with that bet than with Eric's more aggressive $12K. As a result, his bet is more effective than mine would be. He can afford the $12K, yet it's enough to make the other leaders hesitate to follow suit. Next up is Jason's bet. In Jason's seat I lose $11,000 more than he does. I would have followed Eric's $12K. On to Michelle, who would have benefited from my bet. She would win $4000 more and have the lead. For Mike and Brian, I agree with their max bets. They may not get many more opportunities to have a $38K difference between their bet and the rest of the table. Unfortunately, when they get swung by Eric and Michelle, they're in tough shape. Hand 19: Mike.......$ 87,000....$10000...99 Split -> 945 / 9Q Brian......$ 68,000....$50000...5K Dbl ($12000) J Eric.......$225,500....$1000....A392T *Jason.....$213,000....$1000....28 Dbl K Michelle...$222,000....$15000...KA Dealer 8Q Jason's minimum bet from the button is reasonable. A larger bet would likely be matched, unless it is dangerously high. Eric chooses to let Michelle have her shot at the high, and she connects at three to two. At first glance, I thought Brian's double of 15v8 here was ridiculous. After all, there are still 6 hands left in the match. However, the deciding factor is whether his unbet $18K is worth anything if he loses this hand. Obviously he needs to hit the hand anyway, and only if he draws an Ace would he like to be able to hit again. Given those details, he may as well get the extra money working. Note that he saved exactly 6 minimum bets for the 6 remaining hands. Whether for the chance of moving up in the money or just to ensure maximum TV time, maybe he's sharper than I thought. When his double busts, Matt gives us a status report on Zembic: He's "down to 6 grand, a pair of fake breasts, and a pulse." Hand 20: Mike.......$ 97,000....$50000...QJ Brian......$ 6,000....$1000....98 Eric.......$224,500....$1000....47 Dbl Q Jason......$215,000....$33000...36 Dbl A *Michelle..$244,500....$2500....KT Dealer 793 In one of the classic moments from this show, Jason makes a precise $33,000 bet to take the lead, and then goes for the slam dunk by doubling 9v7. When Deanna draws out to 19, all attention focuses on Jason's face-down double card. A worried Jason says "Show me the Ace", and Deanna does just that. What a draw! Hand 21: *Mike......$147,000....$50000...44J Brian......$ 5,000....$1000....788 Eric.......$226,500....$1000....J7 Jason......$281,000....$1000....A65T Michelle...$247,000....$18000...5J Surrender Dealer QT Mike is struggling to get back in this thing, but it just isn't happening. Eric is showing extreme patience here. Max and Matt are critical of Michelle's bet because it isn't enough to take the lead. However, I think it's a pretty sharp bet. A double yields the desired first high (though it doesn't cover a minimum-bet double by Jason. There's that idea again.), yet she can surrender without losing a substantial amount. This 4:1 ratio between double and surrender is a strong tactic. The only complaint I have about this move in this spot is that she's got bad button at the end, so she may not be able to afford the security it offers. She needs the lead sometime in the next 4 hands. However, her bet looks much better than the alternative $36K when she draws the 15 and must surrender. Hand 22: Mike.......$ 97,000....$50000...4K Dbl ($47000) 8 *Brian.....$ 4,000....$1000....Q8 Eric.......$225,500....$1000....9A Jason......$280,000....$1000....JK Michelle...$238,000....$40000...64K Dealer T26 Michelle's bet this hand is just a little short, which Max attributes to a possible chip-counting error. She's played a pretty sharp round so far, but this is a mistake. MIT Mike for the second time has bet $50K of a $97K bankroll, rather than the slightly better $48,500. If he was dealt a pair of Aces, he would have noticed the difference. He gets all his money working this hand anyway, on a good choice. Just like Brian's situation earlier, except more so... If he loses the hand, his $47K has very little value. He instead chooses to be well-paid on this hand if he succeeds. He doesn't, and there will be no repeat champion this year. Hand 23: Brian......$ 4,000....$1000....9Q *Eric......$226,500....$1000....96 Jason......$281,000....$1000....89 Michelle...$278,000....$1000....938 Dealer 36T Yep, Michelle has a bad chip count here. Max tells us that's the only explanation that makes sense, and I agree. She thinks that her previous hand $40K win gave her the lead, so she's matched Jason's bet here. She's got an unpleasant surprise coming when she discovers her mistake. Meanwhile, Eric is waiting for the button to pass him before he risks any money. That means he must make up more than a max bet deficit in the final two hands. That's a tall order, and he should have made a move before now. Hand 24: Brian......$ 4,000....$1000....2TK Eric.......$225,500....$50000...658 *Jason.....$280,000....$1000....97 Surrender Michelle...$279,000....$1000....TJ Dealer K38 Michelle hasn't discovered her problem yet, and again matches up with Jason. And that's just the first goof this hand. Jason should stand, and Max deserves praise for picking up on that and mentioning it in his commentary. Instead, Jason surrenders. It may seem insignificant with a minimum bet working, but when you only lead by a minimum bet, it's a big deal. Next up is Eric's decision to hit instead of double. My guess is that this mistake is also caused by an inaccurate chip count. I'm guessing that Eric thinks winning $50K will give him the lead. I've mentioned before that the chip stacks in this tournament were incredibly difficult to count because of the low chip denominations and corresponding monster towers of chips. At this table, with more than three quarters of a million in chips in front of the three front-runners, we're seeing the effect of that. I feel for you guys. This was a very tough round to play well. Hand 25: Brian......$ 3,000....$3000....T4 Eric.......$175,500....$50000...29 Dbl 2 Jason......$279,500....$48000...7T *Michelle..$278,000....$48000...29 Dbl 3 Dealer 25T Well, it's apparent that we had a countdown before this hand, because Michelle's bet is clearly chosen with knowledge of her $1500 deficit. It's calculated to keep the low if Jason just pushes out a max bet without considering the implications. It doesn't work, but it's a good ploy that comes at no cost. In her seat, I'd be tempted to virtually lock out Eric with a bet of $2000. But that sure does make winning first place a lot tougher. Upon deciding that opening the door for Eric is an acceptable risk, I'd make exactly the same bet Michelle did here. In fact, I'd play this entire hand exactly as it played out. When both double-down cards are revealed as duds, Jason takes first place and Michelle advances to the wild-card round. This was an exciting round, from start to finish.
Last 2 Killer Hands First off let me say I really enjoyed the experience of playing with and meeting everyone I met during the taping of WSOBJ II. The failure to double down on Hand # 24 was not due to a chip miscount, the reasons were, (at least in my mind at the time): #1: The count was negative (and close to the Index# that says NO!!) I did consider a double for less, but figured, if I lost, it might not be a good idea to get more than $102,000 behind Michelle (a $107,000 difference might have let her try for 1st and still lock me out). #2: If I lost a max double down, I would have had NO CHANCE (down 3 max bets + $2000) for a win on the last hand. I was pretty sure Michelle would try to go for 1st, and bet more than $2000, and that would give me a chance to grab it all (double or split the last hand). As it turned out, Michelle did bet more than $2000, which gave me a chance to win, unfortunately for me the cards just were not there. In case you or anyone else is curious, my minimum bets on most of the last hands were due both to a negative count (damn the luck, I thought the dearler would win a few more than she did) and my belief that Michelle and Jason would just match my bet. That miracle Ace on Jason’s DD on the 9 was a killer. Lastly, thanks Ken for your kind remarks about my play. See you in May (hope I get a lucky draw).
Anthony Curtis' analysis is posted Anthony Curtis has posted his thoughts on episode 9: http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/referenceguide-tournaments-wsob2.cfm#episode9
