Week Ten features the second wild-card round, where four 2nd-place finishers from their initial tables fight to stay alive. Week Ten (wild card round): The four 2nd place finishers from weeks 6 to 9 Ken Einiger, Michelle Richards, Micky Rosa, Erica Schoenberg Friday Apr 1, 10 PM premiere, 1 AM encore Sun Apr 3, 7 PM Mon Apr 4, 11 PM Tue Apr 5, 10 PM Thu Apr 7, 1 AM Sorry I'm late in posting this one. I'll be working on my show recap in the next day or so.
Show Recap part 1 This week's show is another wild-card elimination round, where four second-place finishers get their last chance to stay alive in this event. First up is tournament pro Ken Einiger, who has a track record in big events that is the envy of his peers. In seat two is Michelle Richards, who spent years on the other side of the table as a shift manager. The MIT Team is represented in seat three with Micky Rosa, another player returning from WSOB 1. Rounding out tonight's lineup is Erica Schoenberg, a professional model and gambler. With four players at the table, they'll play 28 hands rather than the usual 25. That means that Erica will be on the final hand button if all players stay in. Hand 1: *Ken:.......$100,000....$1000....T5 Surr Michelle:...$100,000....$1000....8T Micky:......$100,000....$1000....A4J3 Erica:......$100,000....$1000....K36 Dealer AA4T5 Dealer Deanna starts her antics early, with a 5 card 21. Hand 2: Ken:........$ 99,000....$1000....Q4 *Michelle:..$ 99,000....$1000....JA Micky:......$ 99,000....$1000....4J Erica:......$ 99,000....$1000....T4 Dealer 3T34 We get a confident Kenny E in his pop-in, talking about being in the wild-card round: "It's just one extra round." He likes his chances, and he's definitely the most experienced tourney player at the table. Hand 3: Ken:........$ 98,000....$1000....96 Surr Michelle:...$100,500....$1000....K22A7 *Micky:.....$ 98,000....$1000....38 Dbl Erica:......$ 98,000....$20000...2J5 Dealer A3QJ Max likes Erica's aggressive move for the same reason I do. She doesn't have experience on her side, and she'll have bad position on the end. She needs to steamroll this field. Skip to Hand 6: Ken:........$ 95,000....$7500....7T *Michelle:..$102,500....$1000....26A Micky:......$109,000....$6000....T8 Erica:......$119,000....$1000....2AJ5 Dealer 9A Hand 7: Ken:........$ 87,500....$1000....5Q Michelle:...$101,500....$1000....TQ *Micky:.....$103,000....$3000....249 Erica:......$118,000....$20000...K6 Dealer 2J8 Erica's second big bet doesn't work, but I like the fact that she's still firing away. Hand 8: Ken:........$ 86,500....$12000...J9 Michelle:...$101,500....$1000....QQ Micky:......$100,000....$1000....TA *Erica:.....$ 98,000....$1000....2K9 Dealer 87AK Skip to Hand 10: Ken:........$ 98,000....$9500....36 Dbl 4 *Michelle:..$101,500....$1000....8Q Micky:......$101,000....$1500....JQ Erica:......$ 96,500....$5500....TK Dealer 5TJ Erica pauses, apparently considering a ten split here. I like her decision to stand instead, although splitting is not out of the question. Hand 11: Ken:........$117,000....$1000....79 Michelle:...$102,500....$15000...KA *Micky:.....$102,500....$1000....8Q Erica:......$102,000....$1000....438 Dealer 299 Nice big-bet timing for Michelle, which is rewarded with a blackjack. The button has just passed her, and the entire table has bet small. She should have bet an extra $1000 to take the lead, but the blackjack cleans up that issue nicely. The dealer drawing out to 20 is just icing on the cake for this hand. Hand 12: Ken:........$116,000....$5000....6Q Michelle:...$125,000....$4000....572 Micky:......$101,500....$15000...89 *Erica:.....$101,000....$2500....38 Dbl 3 Dealer 3AAQK Michelle's pop-in talks about the fact that since this is her second round to play in this event, she can relax a little more and ignore the lights and cameras. It's a point that can't be emphasized enough. Playing at the center of all that attention is definitely a different experience from a typical tournament round. Note Ken's play here, where he's bet just over half his deficit against Michelle who plays behind him. It's a good low-risk way to take a shot. He can swing her to take the lead if she matches up, or he can double and beat a push by her. Either way, $5000 is low-risk. Micky's bet uses much of the same logic, betting half of what he needs to get first high. A double might give him the lead. Hand 13: *Ken:.......$121,000....$8000....5K7 Michelle:...$129,000....$9000....87 Surr Micky:......$116,500....$1000....2A2T7 Erica:......$106,000....$1000....496 Dealer 9Q Erica can afford to coast a while longer here, behind mid-range bets by Ken and Michelle. But she does need to return to the big bets we saw from her earlier pretty soon. In Ken's seat, I'd like to see an extra $500 on that bet. While I agree that having the lead on hand 14 is of limited value, I say if you're going to risk $8000 to stay in the hunt, you may as well risk $8500 for an extra way to get the lead. Skip to Hand 15: Ken:........$112,000....$10000...4T Surr Michelle:...$115,500....$21000...4QJ *Micky:.....$114,500....$25000...AK Erica:......$105,000....$14000...J8 Dealer T5Q Poor Michelle gets swung by the whole table, and drops from first to last place. It could have been worse, and probably should have been a little, if she had kept pace with Micky this hand. Hand 16: Ken:........$107,000....$1000....7A Dbl 7 Michelle:...$ 94,500....$1000....JQ Micky:......$152,000....$23000...99 Split -> 98 / 92 Dbl 6 *Erica:.....$119,000....$30000...43 Dbl T Dealer 5226AK I don't know how Micky arrived at a $23K bet, but when he gets three of them on the table here it changes the whole game. This is a play that is hard to make at this stage of the game, because of the considerable risk. However, the nine split is persuasive, and after that the double is an easy choice as well. Erica's double here is a bad idea that worked anyway. Winning $60K looks great this hand, but doubling 7v5 only wins 43% of the time. I don't want to pin half my bankroll on those odds with 12 hands left to play. Once Micky and Erica get paid here, it definitely spells trouble for Ken and Michelle. Hand 17: *Ken:.......$109,000....$50000...TA Michelle:...$ 95,500....$5500....57K Micky:......$221,000....$30000...78 Erica:......$179,000....$7000....757 Dealer 2A6 Well, Ken fixes his situation in one hand, with a monster blackjack win. Ken's comment after he gets the blackjack indicates an issue that is ignored by the commentators. Ken tells Deanna that he doesn't know how she's going to pay him, to which she replies "I don't either". She eventually pushes out 3 towering stacks of white $1000 chips to pay his $75K blackjack win. Every large denomination tournament chip that the Golden Nugget owns was already in front of the players at this table. The normal Golden Nugget tournaments start players with much smaller bankrolls, so most of their tournament chips are small denominations. When this was discovered just before filming began, it was too late to get different chips approved by the Nevada gaming authorities. That's why the chip stacks are so formidable in this event. --continued in next post--
Show Recap part 2 Hand 18: Ken:........$184,000....$10000...QQ *Michelle:..$ 90,000....$5000....76 Micky:......$191,000....$5000....J6 Erica:......$179,000....$7000....78 Dealer 5JK Hand 19: Ken:........$194,000....$15000...9345 Michelle:...$ 95,000....$1000....Q6 Surr *Micky:.....$196,000....$15000...95 Dbl $500 Erica:......$186,000....$30000...T7 Dealer J335 Now Erica is cranking up again, which is good. Ken makes an odd choice of matching Micky here, when I think first high ($22,500) is better. With the bigger bet playing after Micky he could also surrender if Micky and Erica bust or stand short. Michelle with last bet sees big bets around the table, and bides her time. Her low bet and her surrender prove timely when Deanna makes a four-card 21. Note Micky's double for less to hide his card, a familiar tactic from previous shows. Hand 20: Ken:........$194,000....$5000....47 Dbl 8 Michelle:...$ 94,500....$1500....2T2Q Micky:......$180,500....$20000...767 *Erica:.....$156,000....$40000...A5QA Dealer QJ Erica, Ken and Micky all bet well here, each taking the high in turn. That's the peril of making a big catch-up bet from the button like Erica does here. By the time the cards are dealt, she has a huge chunk of her bank at risk, but is only third-high if all bets win. Hand 21: *Ken:.......$184,000....$2500....AQ Michelle:...$ 93,000....$2000....KT Micky:......$180,500....$10000...68 Erica:......$116,000....$50000...25 Dbl A Dealer 484Q Erica doubles another 7, this time for $100K. I can't decide whether I like this one or not. With 7 hands to go, it makes a lot more sense, but it still seems like a risky choice. This time her chances are under 41%. She takes the lead with it. Hand 22: Ken:........$187,750....$30000...T8 *Michelle:..$ 95,000....$5000....37 Dbl J Micky:......$190,500....$16000...845 Erica:......$216,000....$7000....29 Dbl 6 Dealer 884 Michelle is still patient, and I expect we'll see that end when the button passes next hand. Hand 23: Ken:........$157,750....$1000....AQ Michelle:...$ 95,000....$31000...QQ *Micky:.....$174,500....$27000...K9 Erica:......$202,000....$30000...69 Dealer KA Micky looks to have a bad chip count as his bet is $500 short of his deficit. Erica keeps firing, which I like for her. I was right about Michelle, who bets one-third of her chips here. I like half better, but it's not bad. However, her timing sucks, as Deanna has a blackjack. Ken's gotta love that, as $88K is raked in the tray while he pushes. Hand 24: Ken:........$157,750....$50000...92 Dbl K Michelle:...$ 64,000....$4000....Q9 Micky:......$147,500....$25000...42K *Erica:.....$172,000....$50000...J7 Dealer 2Q9 Erica's keeps the pedal to the metal, hoping to build up a huge lead. Ken follows with a max bet as well and then gets a basic strategy double. I can sympathize with Michelle here, and I think I'd have made a small bet as well. With a few hands left, and both players ahead of you with max bets on the table, it's a lot easier to make up ground by letting the dealer do the work. And, it almost works, except Ken pulls off a minor miracle push with 21 to take the lead. Micky took first-low by a chip, and moves from third to second place as a result. Hand 25: *Ken:.......$157,750....$20000...3K Michelle:...$ 60,000....$20000...7K Micky:......$122,500....$19000...6T Erica:......$122,000....$20000...J5 Dealer 56J Ken makes a superb bet here, guaranteeing first high and first low. Then, everyone else matches up with him! I love it when that happens. Michelle is running out of time, and the third of her bankroll bet is a poor choice. Obviously, I'd have been gone already if I were in her seat! A third-straight dealer 21 makes no difference, as nothing changes regardless this hand. It's as if all the players decided to skip a hand. Hand 26: Ken:........$137,750....$13000...A8 *Michelle:..$ 40,000....$20000...54 Dbl 3 Micky:......$103,500....$18000...7Q Erica:......$102,000....$35000...9T Dealer 838 Michelle should definitely not be splitting her money here, and I'm sure she knows it watching the show. Micky's bet offers a double to take the lead, and makes sense if you consider that he'll have final bet on the last hand. Erica's bet is $750 shy of her deficit which is a mistake, even though a push by Ken is the only way it might matter. Ken bets well, betting most of what he can to not open the door to a Micky swing. Michelle's half-bank bet may have cost her here when she doubles and ends up with a 12. (The next card is the dealer's 8.) Hand 27: Ken:........$137,750....$10000...4663 *Micky:.....$ 85,500....$50000...AA54 Erica:......$102,000....$50000...39Q Dealer 7T Ken has played an excellent round to this point, but this is an awful bet at a crucial time. He gives Erica straight first-high this hand, yet he bets enough to open the door for a swing by Micky. He should have bet at least $16,000 here to have both first high and first low. He gets away with it when Erica busts and it doesn't matter at all. He wisely does not double, in case he needs to draw more than one card to match up as well as possible with Micky. Hand 28: Ken:........$147,750....$40000...5Q Surr Micky:......$135,500....$30500...4552Q *Erica:.....$ 52,000....$50000...T3J Dealer K2 Ken chooses to take the high instead of the low here, which gives up a few extra percent. In this case, there's an extra reason why the low would have been better. A low bet locks out Erica, even if she gets a blackjack. With Ken's high bet, she's still alive, even though she must have a blackjack to have any hope. Note that Ken can surrender to lock her out at that point (and this could be a precise bet to accomplish just that), but there's no guarantee that a surrender will be appropriate in his seat, even if Erica has the blackjack. I can't figure out Micky's play here either. He takes neither the low nor the high. A perfect bet here would be between $26,500 and $27,500. It may seem impossible to arrive at a precise bet like that at the table, but it's actually not that tough here. If you're determined to take first low when it is offered, then holding back one chip more than Ken accomplishes that and guarantees that if there is a chance to double back into the high while maintaining the low, you'll have it covered. In this case, Ken held back $107,750. If Micky holds back $108,000 and bets the rest, he arrives at one of the three magic bets, betting $27,500. He now has first low, and yet he can double back into first high. Once the cards come out, Ken's surrender is the obvious play, and now Micky must either push or win his hand to prevail. His decision to hit 16 is the correct play regardless of the count, because a push is just as valuable as a win here. However, Micky busts, and Kenny E moves on to the semifinals.
Am I missing a concept here? Am I missing a concept here? I say that a Ken surrender may not be appropriate even if Erica has a blackjack. That would occur if Micky has a strong hand and appears likely to win. However, if Ken had taken my advice and made a small bet so the surrender is unneeded, wouldn't that mean he can't defend the good hand Micky has? Does this argument defuse my complaints about opening the door to Erica, or not? It's late. I'm too tired to think about this.
Anthony Curtis' analysis is posted As usual, Anthony gets to the meat of this round and posted an excellent commentary: http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/referenceguide-tournaments-wsob2.cfm#episode10 And, to everyone reading, I'm still interested in thoughts on my last post.
