I've just finished reading a book called "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" and I can't recommend it enough to forum members. The author is an ex-Wall Street Trader and risk analyst of Lebanese extraction and he makes what could be a very dry subject a very interesting, and at times a very funny read. His central thesis is that society, politics, finance, the economy, etc, are all dominated and shaped by what he calls "black swans", event characterized by their completely unpredictable nature and the massive extent of their impact. He goes on to say that we, as a society and as individuals, are completely incapable of dealing with this and to a large extent put on blinkers by completely ignoring the possibility of these high impact improbable events. You need look no further than 9/11 to see the results. What may interest forum members (and statisticians) is how he looks on the bell curve. He demonstrates how it's use is completely inappropriate in most cases. Dodgy dealing at Bet21 anybody Anyway here's the link for those interested. I'm going to get his first book "Fooled by Randomness" which looks similarly interesting. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Black-Swan-...5571110?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1180712391&sr=8-1 Cheers Reachy
