On Global Player last night (afternoon to you guys) I saw somebody insure a 16 against a dealer A and then surrender. Is this a good thing to do and if so when? It worked out well for the player concerned because the dealer did have A bj so they in effect won 1/2 their original stake back (if my calculations are correct). Actually I've just looked at some numbers and I think the average outcome is exactly the same for either approach. If we assume that when the dealer shows an Ace he has a BJ 1/3 of the time then with a BR of 1000 and a bet of 200 the outcome would be 1/3 X 1100 + 2/3 X 800 = 900, same as surrender alone. Am I right? Next question. I had a bad run of DD in the latter stages of tournaments last night where the swing almost certainly put me out of the running. I can't remember any numbers so I can't be specific but they were classic BS situations (11 vs 6). My gut was telling me to hit because if I lost I would still be able to catch up on the last hand but I slavishly followed BS. DD also limits you options allowing only one hit. Is this just variance which I should accept as part of the game or should I consider not DD in the latter stages of a tourney in the same way that I would consider DD on non-BS hands? Finally, Joep, when are we getting another hand of the week? Thanks for your indulgence Reachy
First, Global Player's surrender is late surrender, which means you can't actually surrender against a dealer BJ. This situation where you decide on both insurance and the play of the hand during your turn is unique to Global. At a land-based tournament, the entire table will be asked about insurance, and then the dealer will peek. If the dealer doesn't have blackjack, the dealer starts back at the button for the play of the hand. This twist at Global makes for some interesting situations. But, just to clear up the situation you describe... If I insure and surrender, if the dealer has blackjack, I break even overall, because the surrender never happens and the insurance exactly covers my lost bet. If the dealer doesn't have blackjack, I lose half a bet on the insurance and half a bet on the surrender, so I've lost one full original bet. On doubling: Your intuition is right, telling you that sometimes you should skip those basic strategy doubles. In each case you should weigh the advantage of winning two bets against the disadvantage of losing two bets. Often you'll find that the extra chips aren't that meaningful, but a loss of two bets would be damaging. In those cases, just hit, don't double.
