Elimination hand, I'm BR6 with $34K, BR5 ($38K) and BR7 ($31K) are acting before me. Whoever is BR7 at the end of the hand will be eliminated. BR5 and BR7 both use their secret bets, what do I do? Cheers Reachy
I didn't but I wished I had As you can probably guess it was me that got eliminated else why else would I post . For some reason I opted to take the low road by betting $5.5K which I would surrender if BR7 looked like losing, I just didn't want to max bet for some reason! I guess by betting the max you are ensuring 2nd high and probably 2nd low if we assume that BR7 is also betting the max. You may even have 1st high. As for the secret bet I like to save that until the very last hand if I can. I don't think I've used it on the first elimination hand yet and I think I've probably only used it in about 50% of the games I've played, if that. Cheers Reachy
Some random thoughts ... Looking purely at the goal of getting over the hurdle of the current elimination hand, taking the low looks like the more favourable option. If you go all in, then you have to win (44%); if you take the low, BR7 now has to win, and if BR5 has bet big with his secret bet then he will also have to win or push. (You could also use your secret bet to hide any surrender possibility from BR5.) So your chances are better than 56%. However, I think in my UB play so far I've been hurting my overall chances somewhat by obsessing about each elimination round and letting the leaders get away in the process. An all-in win - with your secret bet held back for later - is likely to set you up well for the rest of the game. Or maybe betting contrary to BR1 would be an option; so that, if you do get through the round, you are likley to have also gained on the leader.
OK, I forgot max bet was $25K So you don't have to win your max bet, but you're in pretty bad shape if you don't. Especially if the leaders have bet small.
Game theory (again) The table below (based on Wongs table 4 from CTS) shows the various potential outcomes BEFORE the cards have been dealt when BR1 has a slight chip lead over BR2 when they either bet the max or bet small (not necessarily the min) and it’s an elimination round. If BR2 acts first BR1 must mimic BR2’s bet which as we can see should be the max (For BR2 to maximize his chances he must aim to get the lowest %age as the figure relates to BR1’s outcome). BR1 therefore has an 81% chance of beating BR2. If BR1 acts first he should bet small. This is because if he bets the max BR2’s best bet is a small bet and it becomes a coin toss. By betting small BR1 forces BR2 to bet the Max so that BR1’s chances are only 56% rather than the 86% they would be if BR2 also bet small. So let’s make it interesting and introduce the secret bet! What is the best course of action for the players now? Is it the same as before? Tricky one this! BR1 has to decide his best course of action without knowing what BR2’s bet will be. So we have to then think “how would I act if I were BR2 acting first?” The internal monologue may go something like this "The best BR2 can hope for is 50% which he’ll only get if I bet the max and he bets small. I will only bet the max if I think he’s going to bet the max which he may be considering since that is his best course of action if it weren’t a secret bet. However if BR2 expects me to think his best course of action is the bet the max he will expect me bet the max also so he may try and bluff me by betting small to minimise my chances of winning. I could call that bluff and bet small also thus giving me 86%, etc, etc, etc, therefore I should bet ….." Well I think I know what I’ll do now. Actually I think this may be the intersection between poker and BJ because having a read on a player, bluffing and tells could play a part here. What do you think? Cheers Reachy * If BR2 doesn’t bet enough to cover BR1’s Push with a Win † If BR1 bets too much and loses to a BR2 Push ‡ If BR2 doesn’t bet enough to Win against a BR1 Loss § If BR1 bets too much and loses to a BR2 Push
