I got to thinking about this while doing my walking yesterday. You have two video poker machines. One is a dollar machine with a JOB 8/5 pay table and the expected $4,000 payout for a full-coin royal. The other is a $5 machine with a JOB 9/6 pay table with a $20,000 payout for a full-coin royal. Your playing options are to play full coin on the dollar machine ($5 a hand) or single coin on the $5 machine ($5 a hand). Your royal on the dollar machine will be $4,000 and your royal on the $5 machine will be $1,250 (250 credits) You are giving up $2,750 on the royal by playing the $5 machine. The figure quoted for royal expectations is once every 40,000 hands. My question is this. How close to making up that difference of $2,750 would the extra $5 you earn on the $5 machine each time a full house or flush comes up if you played out the expected 40,000 hands. Obviously, you would have to hit a combination of 550 flushes and full houses in those hands but I was curious how likely or unlikely that situation occuring was according to the math. Thanks for any help.
You're better off betting 1 coin at the $5 9/6 game. The expected number of full houses enroute to a royal cycle is 465. The expected number of flushes is 445. The combined number is much higher than the 550 needed to overcome the short royal. This is not proof that single-coin video poker is a good idea, so much as it is evidence that 8/5 games are deadly! One more thing... Did you notice that you expect slightly more full houses than flushes, even though full houses pay more? Surprisingly, the frequency of straights, flushes and full houses are all every close.
Thanks Ken. I was hoping that the math would back up my gut feeling. I was down at Harrah's New Orleans a week ago and wound up playing single coin in a $5 machine for an hour or two. My girlfriend and her sister were playing in the high limit area also and I wanted to be in their proximity. She got lucky , I didn't . I usually play VP at the bar by the poker room but may not now unless there is a ball game I really want to watch.
