Playing a tournament soon with secret bet on final hand. This always seems to throw me because I mis-guess what my opponents will do. Anyone have some helpful tips? Assume they will bet big? Pretend I am betting first? There will be 1 or 2 people advancing each round. I think the tournament will have surrender.
Same as First Bet With a secret bet you have to treat it as though you bet first. Just make the correct bet for a first bet.
I understand that logic but it seems like I am leaving a lot on the table in terms of strategy. Surely I can play the situation better than that. It seems like certain situations lead themselves to far better than typical edge (than one would expect if betting first), if you can bet properly.
Depends If you think your opponent is an aggressive ploppy, then bet big. If your opponent is a timid ploppy then bet small. If you observed a tell that you're pretty confident in, match what you think the opponent did. If your opponent is a sharp player do the following: If your lead is less than 1/8 of the max bet, bet small. If your lead is 1/8 to 1/3 of a max bet then bet big about 40% of the time and small about 60% of the time. You can use a random device such as your watch to make your decision (same idea as flipping a coin.) This 40-60 choice between going big and going small makes you indifferent to your opponent's decision. If you go big, play your hand as if you know your opponent also went big. If your lead is 1/3 to 2/3 of a max bet, bet 2/3 of a max bet 70% of the time and bet a chip less than your lead 30% of the time. Again if you go big play your hand as if your opponent bet the max. If your lead is more than 2/3 of a max bet, use conventional betting decisions. I developed this strategy using game theory principles and you can read about it in Blackjack Insider.
