Hello Long time lurker, first time poster so please be kind I just played in a small tournament and didn't advance in my round but was wondering if I made the right move. Here's the situation. Two players advance, $25 to $500 limits, four players remain on the last hand with the following bankrolls: Spot 1: 2,525 Spot 2: 1,650 (me) Spot 3: 1,000 Spot 4: 1,100 Unfortunately I have to bet first and here are the bets and each player's first two cards versus the dealer Ace Spot 1: 25, Cards: I forget Spot 2: 500, Cards: T,7 Spot 3: 500, Cards: 3,3 Spot 4: 500, Cards: 9,2 Again, I have to act first and my question is do I stand or double my hard 17. The players after me have split/double oppoutunities but I don't have a good double opportunity. I stood on my 17. Spot 3 split and drew a 10 on the first 3 (which would have busted me). He ended up busting both hands. Spot 4 doubled and drew a 8 for a total of 19. I'm still in pretty good shape, if the dealer busts or draws to anything other than a 17 or 18 I move on. Of course she draws to a 18. But again, was the proper tournament play to stand or double? Thanks Dogen
Welcome out of lurker status. In this situation, you were in pretty good shape going into the hand. Your lead over 3rd place is more than a max bet. You did the right thing by betting the max here. With that bet, you don't need to double, even if BR3 or BR4 do double. Don't double. You already advance if you get paid a single bet, with a total of $2150. If Spot 4 (BR3) doubles and wins, they go to only $2100. So, standing was definitely the right play. You had somewhere around 62% to 71% chance of advancing (depending on whether the dealer hits soft 17 in this game.)
Minimum Thanks for your response Ken. I have reviewed my bet again and wondered whether I'd be better off betting the minimum as the only way I can be caught is by a BR3 and/or BR4 BJ or double whereas a swing could get me if I bet the max. Thanks Dogen
My two penneth 500 is better than 25 and I think I can demonstrate it mathematically! With 500 you have high and low and can only lose if 1 or both of the 2 players in the chase win when you lose. Unfortunately Wong Table 4 doesn't give enough detail to be precise but if we say that when we lose (0.48) we can be overtaken if either or both of BR3 or BR4 win (0.58). An estimate of of chances of advancing would therefore be 1-.48 x .58 = .72. This actually underestimates our chances because it doesn't take account of the fact that players tend to have similar outcomes. If we lose the chances of either or both BR3 and BR4 winning will be less than .58 and therefore our chances of winning are greater than .72. If we bet 25 then we don't advance if either or both BR3 and BR4 get a BJ or successfully double. Again table 4 doesn't provide enough detail but by examining just one of our opponents potential outcomes we can see that the 25 bet is inferior to the 500 bet. The chances of a BJ are 1/23 = 0.04. The chances of a successful DD are .33 so if we assume that when BRL doesn't have a BJ he doubles the overall chances of BRL beating you are 0.04 + 22/23 x .33 = .36. Therefore against just one opponent we have only a .64 chance of advancing. (Against 2 opponents I would estimate that the chances of being overtaken are 1/3 as much again which would put your chances of advancing at .52. However I won't use this figure though because it is a big assumption). Already its clear that 500 is better than 25 because .72+ is greater than .64-. Can we refine these numbers any more? Yes, I think we can. With a 500 bet we can also lose if we push (0.08) and either/and BR3 or BR4 get a BJ or double: it is in effect an minimum bet and so the chances of us losing when we push is .04 (0.08 x .48). This then adjusts .72+ to .68+. So in summary, at worst a 500 bet is better than a 25 bet by a differential of 4% and at best there is at least a differential of 20%. The truth is probably in the middle. However I could be a country mile off ! Cheers reachy
