Always a better bet

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by mrbill, Apr 13, 2009.

  1. mrbill

    mrbill New Member

    In a tourney at a local casino yesterday the following came up. This is the 25th(final) hand of the tournament. Max bet was $500. Top 3 are paid, 1st - $212, 2nd - $127, 3rd - $42.

    The following is the setup in action order.

    * BR3 - $1800 - $500 - K7
    * BR2 - $2000 - $500 - KK
    * BR1(me) - $2910 - $300 - K6
    * BR4 - $1750 - $500 - K8
    * Dealer has a 6 up

    1. BR3 Stands
    2. BR2 Splits his K's getting an 8 and a 2
    3. I stay on 16
    4. BR4 Stays
    5. Dealer ended up hitting to either 18 or 19(not sure)
    6. I win the tournament

    I realize now the $300 was an overbet and $95 - $105 would be much better. At the time the $300 was to cover a triple win by anyone but it gave up to much to a double win by BR3 or BR4.

    What should my play be in the following situations

    1. After splitting, BR2 doubles his 12 and doesn't bust.
    2. After splitting, BR2 doubles hist 12 and doesn't bust, BR3 has $1820

    Feel free to comment on any part of this.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2009
  2. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    1. If BR2 doubles his 12 and does not bust, then you should double your hard 16.
    2. In your second question, doubling now would seem to risk a swing with BR3. However, BR3 has stood with hard 17 which eliminates the swing possibility. Doubling is still best, and your chances are exactly the same as in question 1.

    You may wonder what happens if BR3 has a better hand. If BR3 has 19 or less, you should double. If BR3 has 20 or 21, you should hit your hard 16 once.
     
  3. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Oops, I forgot to look at what happens if BR2's hard-12 double produces a non-stiff in addition to BR3 having a strong hand...

    If BR3 has a hand of 20, and BR2's double makes 17, you should double.
    If BR3 has a hand of 20, and BR2's double makes 18 or higher, you should double.

    If BR3 has a hand of 21, and BR2's double makes 17, you should hit to hard 18.
    If BR3 has a hand of 21, and BR2's double makes 18 or higher, you should double.

    Complicated.
     

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