Anomaly?

You know I have played in very few games at Bet21. But I wonder...

During the games I have watched and the many many games I have observed I have noticed the dealer is ice cold and the player are red hot. Dealer busting and a couple players with double chances with a greater than average frequency. I even counted a streak of 7 straight 11s to 21. Totals for players 3-4 times starting BR. Ploppies being rewarded hand after hand. If this shuffle machine was in a casino the floor would be adjusting it after most every hand. At the end of the day the boss would have thrown the shuffler in the trash and gave all the dealers single decks to be dealt face up just to save money. Sure a couple days of observation isnt enough to draw conclusion, but so far the aggressive players have an upper hand. Which isnt natural in regular blackjack. Is this whjat has been happening all along? Or is it a bump?

 

ebj odds

Barney - I have posted before that I think the players may actually have a slight advantage in online ebj in the first eight hands - given the probabilities for a very short hand sequence - I usually play a little agressive during the first eight hands - then a more conventional conservative strategy after that -

but I agree - some of the results online are very strange - you should expect extreme results on occassion in bj - as a 1% probability will occur 1% of the time - meaning - if you play enough tables - it WILL happen - but it sometimes seems extreme probabilities are the norm for online ebj - usually the bad extremes for me

may be poorly programmed software - which wouldn't effect the casino's rake - so what do they care?

remember, when you play online - (not an accusation for Ultimate Bet or other tourney sites (would not affect casino rake for tourneys) - or any site in particular) - I remember reading in the paper - that one online bj software provider was producing software that could be 'adjusted' to alter the odds to advantage or disadvantage the player - and some online sites had been accused of doing that - you need to be as careful online as in a real casino - I have seen dealers dealing seconds - flipping decks - and pulling chips out of the rack into their own pockets in live play - why would online be any different? -

as far as Ultimate Bet/Bet21/Ubt goes - while it seems as if the drunk-all-in-guys hit bjs and 20s every time - good play is rewarded in the long run - even in the wild TEC sitngos on UBT - I win 1 out of 3 (considerably better than random odds) by betting conservativelty on the early hands - so they are obviously not running away with every tourney -

it is possible that their software for tourneys is screwed up - using an inaccurate algorithm that produces anomalous results - but since the casino rake is not affected - they haven't paid any attention to it - but I tracked my ebj online play over a lot of tourneys and sitngos for a considerable period of time - and I do show both a net profit in my play on UB/Bet21 - and am maintaining an expert level edge - even if lower than the edge I maintain in live tourneys - I credit the gap in edge to the reduced opportunities for skillfull strategic play in ebj - due to the short sequences between elimination hands - taking that into account - probably no really big difference in outcomes over the very long run - so if there are problems with their algorithm - they don't seem to be affecting long term results for the players - more than likely you are simply observing the basic nature of ebj - little benefit from strategically skillfull play and a bigger luck factor -

 

I still dont feel comfortable that we get a random deal.

And I disagree that the rake is not affected....The more games per hour that are played = more rake per hour. So it would certainly be an advantage for these sites to make the game end sooner rather than to go the full 30 hands.

That can happen in a number of ways.

I have noticed a couple of things ....

The dealer in the hammer them all mode....several times I have been in games where the dealer pulls 4 plus BJ in the first 8 hands...actually Ive seen a few go to 6 out of 8 dealer BJ...thats almost impossible and yet I have seen it...along with a way higher than normal percentage of dealer ten up.

One or two players dealt unbelievable cards (I have gotten these cards sometimes so its not unfair to me but...) I think it ends the game earlier than normal. I watch when I notice this and it's laughable ....BR 1 ploppy overbets a big lead and continues to get BJ...or to draw to 21 ...(this is what Barney noticed) and they continue to overbet and at some point force catchup bets by all the rest who procede to double 11 and get an abnormal amount of Ace or 2 or 3 to the 11...lol

For me it is not sour grapes because I dont feel that I am being cheated per se because it is random seats where it occurs....

I know everyone thinks oh...no way they would do that ...but I say when you are bound by no oversight and the knob is there to make the rake per hour run faster....do they turn it up???

Id like to see some proof that a true random deal occurs...

I asked this before and although I didnt see all the TV shows ...the hand dealt games I did see usually went a good long way into the 30 hands...That rarely happens in an online game and it may be because of a less than random deal...

Many here know the averages .....

How often should the dealer show the ten up???
How often should the dealer have BJ?
How often should the dealer bust?

All these items if just slightly above average would cause an EBJ game to end earlier and therefore increase the rake per hour rate.

The cards seem just too strange to be normal and random....I do understand that as players we tend to remember cetain hands and forget the others....but I just wonder if they have a "rake per hour" knob that can be turned up and down just like they could change a games odds by the manipulation of 0 and 1 ..0001110010111101000010101000101011

Id sure like to see an independant service running checks on the deal...if there is a random number generator then there must be a random number gererator checker...right?


Ya but I wish I was rich and handsome insted of just handsome too.... so.......

 

Gotta love this thread!

Barney starts off with this observation:

Man, I'm playing my style (conservating TBJT betting) and watching while other players get 2-3 times BR totals. I can't win. This thing MUST be rigged!

Then RZ chimes in with:

It may be possible that the software has a "glitch" but overall player beware

Finally representing the opposite extreme, Rando:

Man, I'm playing my agressive style (EBJ betting) and see that the dealer keeps getting BJ and 20 hands. I can't win. This thing MUST be rigged!

:joker:

So what is it guys? Too easy or too tough? You all want a goldielocks site right? Not too hard, not too soft, just right! :laugh:

 

No FG

I was in the money 5-3 during S&Gs yesterday so losing isnt the problem. Adjusting isnt that hard to fit in. Anyone who sat with me at a table was made aware of the abnormal sequence of 11 double to 21 as I would call them and highlight them at every point. The dealing mechanism at Bet21 is not natural. Does this matter for play there? No, because in any BJT game you need to adjust. But here is where "practicing" here is going to harm you. Once you get to the live table the cards will flow, unless they are back stage loaded, naturally. Im almost willing to bet you will never see a live table at 8X starting BR like I did in a high pay in game yesterday. Ive only been playing here 3 days so maybe it is an bump in the road. It is tho a fact, IMO, that 11-21 dbls running near 75% isnt natural.

Interesting to compare the dealing trends for the BJT vendors.

Global was a countable program that tended to run very low counts lower than I ever find on average at a casino with 6 decks. It is hard to work a low count maybe thats why springback did so well there.

Golden Palace ran a shuffle after about avery 20 cards or so I believe. It was pretty natural and probably the most comparable to live play under those shuffling techniques. GPee pounded aggressive bettors.

blackjack21 dot com tends to have a positive count and is countable making card playing an important and good feature there. It is slightly loaded to high side.

During my small sample at bet21 it is loaded to the player. I dont agree with rando at all so far, but important is my sample size very small. Some say its great practice for live game. I say be careful. Progression actually holds better merit during online EBJ.

 

I played with Barney

Barney and I played together last night eek: ) and there was a guy who hit 21 with his first 3 doubles on 11 and 20 with the 4th. He raced into a lead but you'll be pleased to know Barney he was 3rd man out . I don't think that anything untoward is going on but it was funny because I'd just read this thread.

Cheers

Reachy

 

The reservation gaming commission where UBT is run out of - claims they inspect the software for fairness before the online casinos are allowed to operate - but 'fairness' doesn't mean that the results duplicate a regular game - just that the long term odds balance out the same as in real bj - so you can have a 'fair' game with the software producing more extreme probability hands - as long as they are extreme both ways - for and against the player - and in tournaments - they are all evenly distributed over all the players - in the very long run -

online ebj seems - and this means 'seems' - to me to produce more frequent runs of extreme probabilities - both negative and positive - then live bj dealing would do - sometimes you get miracle cards - sometimes they smash you - and sometimes the 'luck' flips in mid game - but all players run into this evenly -

unless you want to offer up a conspiracy theory that their software identifies the skilled players and biases the results against us to favor the ploppies - which would seem to be rather paranoid - especially since I tracked more than 150 tables I played online recently - and I came out with a 47% edge - all while I was feeling they were doing me in - that's quite a bit lower than I am running in b&m tourneys over the same time period - but I think that is well explained by the lack of opportunity for strategic play in ebj - I lot of my edge comes from the strategies I play in the early and mid hands - and there are no early/mid hands in ebj - it is all tactical late/final hands play - and any player who uses strategic play in the early game is going to lose almost all the edge that generates and just be left with their tactical play edge -

but there does seem to be a difference in probabilities between online ebj and live tbj - but it also seems they balance out over the long run -

the reason the live tv games go longer than the online games is probably due to the lower ploppy percentage in the tv games - the players may not always be very skilled - and a lot of pokerploppies sneak in - but at least they have some concept of how to play tournaments and cards and are unlikely to exhibit the extreme ploppy play we see online -

 

Ive been Rando'ed

last 4 games hands win-lost-push surrender is a loss

2-0-8

3-1-12

3-0-8

3-0-13

Like I said my sample was very small. Variance is huge. And I thought the secret bet was screwy! :laugh:

No wonder you hear of wild win loss swings.

 

Have you guys discussed this with Oliver Stone yet?

 

Goldilocks

So what is it?

Two days ago EBJ was too easy - everyone was getting HUGE hands

Today, after 4 games, it is too hard!

Maybe if you stick around you'll find a time when it is just right! Ahhh :violin:

Welcome to the world of extremes!

But seriously maybe what you're experiencing is just time compression. When was teh last time you played 4 BJT at a B&M in one day? In addition online EBJ goes much faster than TBJ, say BJ21 or Global.

Maybe it was always this way but you just didn't remember! :yikes:

Oh BTW did you get a chance to read HD's book on EBJ

 

check out

the wizard of odds site - he talks about both dishonest sites (a good warning) and sites with screwy software

 

LOL. You know Ace, they do have the same moniker!:laugh:

 

Why? This sounds like voodoo mathematics to me. If there is a fresh shuffle after every hand then why the unbiased extremes?

YOU tracked more than 150 tables that YOU played in recently REALLY. What is your online name? When I play I play numerous games and saturate most table and I've never seen RKuczek playing

You've played in 150 B & M BJT recently? WOW do you live on a reservation? Most people I know would say it takes years to play that many LIVE BJT's. Are you Superman flying across the country? Faster than a speeding bullet?

That sounds good but explain in English just what the heck you are talking about? The first 5 hands before elimination hands are early/mid hands. The two hands and elimination hand require final/end play.

Once again contradiction - we see extreme ploppy play online BUT your 47% edge is lower online than when you play in B&M casino's? Maybe your lower percentage online is due to a greater pool of better players! How many of YOUR B&M BJT had Ken Smith, A Curtis, R Hamilton, Blair Rodman, Joe Pane, etc at your table?

RK - come clean. Post some numbers like Archie did. Or better yet tell us what your online user name is. Mine is fgk42. You'll see me there most nights! Bring it on!

 

Rk

I looked under internet gambling and dont see it?

 

online names are

REK1744, REKuczek, and RKuczek depending on site - and no - I did not play 150 tables in b&m casinos recently (that's tables - not tourneys) - did track 150 tables on line - since I made some changes to my play a while ago - I decided to track online play - that's where those 150 online tables came from - don't usually track like that online - b&m play since I changed up my game is only nine tourneys - but I do have five final tables in those nine - possibly a little lucky streak - mostly I play Yuma once a month - and Laughlin (Edgewater and Avi)- and Golden Acorn when they ran tourneys - which they have stopped for a while - played at Pioneer -

I play the really cheap games online - so don't play the big dogs except in a rare qualifier - but have seen you a few times slumming the small money games - and have been playing the qualifiers for the $25,000 - can't see online ebj as something I want to sink a bunch of money into - but is good for practice and can be fun as well as frustrating - and who knows - may get into and money the $25,000???? - always a chance -

try googling "wizard of odds" - or just go to www.wizardofodds.com

no contradiction - a fresh shuffle doesn't mean anything - if the algorithm and random number generator are biased - I don't mean deliberately biased - but mathematically biased - and produce anomalous results when they set the deck - no algorithm/random number generator is truely random - they are what is called 'pseudo-random' and can exhibit strong biases -

and I look at the last 5 hands in a tourney as being 'late/final' hands - not just the last three - in a b&m tbj - you have at least 10 hands before you need to concentrate on end game tactics - in ebj - you have only three or four - that is not long enough for strategic play to be effective - you need to start concentrating on tactical/end game play within five hands of the elimiation hand (or final hand) - so it is balance - until you get within those five final hands - you play a strategic game - and then move more towards tactical play as you approach the end game and get into it - that's my approach anyway - ebj screws it up and screws up my edge by eliminating strategic play effectiveness - I am maybe getting to be a fair player as to tactical play, but certainly not great - but also bring in a strategic element that adds to my edge in live tourneys -

and as far as playing against 'good players' - in several live tourneys - I have played against BARNEY STONE

 

RK – sorry for the harsh tone in my post. I was WAY too tired and abused at the tables last night. I was a whipping boy! Five final tables in 9 tourneys IS impressive.

As far as the cost of the game and playing I have some PERSONAL observations:

1. The less expensive the buy in the more aggressive the play (however lately I’ve been seeing this change at the “bubble” tables i.e., $10 & $20)
2. The less experienced players either a. are VERY conservative (min bets) or VERY aggressive ($12,500 or $25,000)
3. The higher end tables ($30 & $50) are either very conservative or very aggressive (i.e., final totals around 30,000 and under or over 90,000) not too many in between’s

This is kinda confusing to me. I guess the reason is how do you define strategic play and tactical play? What is the difference? I just want to be talking apples with apples and not oranges! With TBJT getting 1.5 max bets ahead of an opponent, for me, is a goal. I think it is very achievable due to the low max bet levels.

With a higher max bet level in EBJ, I feel it allows you more opportunities for more aggressive play. Now that can help or hurt you depending upon the other players but mainly on the dealer.

Oh so THAT explains you high rate of victory at live events! :laugh:

 

FG, I would be blasted too if I were plopping in 33% and 100% all day long and hoping for the best! LOL

RK, I know the wizard of odds site I cant find the specific area about online vendors and their reliability.

 

Fred....you make a mistake reading my post...

Im not complaining about losing or even talking about my results per se...

Im saying it would be a great benefit for these internet gaming sites to increase the rake per hour rate to the maximum. This can very easily be accomplished in a number of ways.....

One is hot dealer...another is favorable cards to just 2 or three players...

Watch the cards....pay attention to this pattern....two solid hands....one soft hand...4 stiffs...dealer 9,10,Ace up.

As the two "hot" players build a lead ....the falling behind players are forced to make catch up bets and then busting out or falling back to an impossible situation....this could cause an earlier end to the game... thus increasing the rake per hour rate by allowing a new game to take this spot.

Its not about cheating or favoring any particular player...although that would certainly be possible ...its about rake per hour rates....

Id like to see some oversight to assure a random deal.

Its somthing you will never be sure about playing a online gaming site

By offering some independant test results that show that the deal follows the correct percentages over a long trial it would go a long way in assuring a fair game.

I know it will probably never happen because I actually see people playing regular BJ on these sites....in fact I often see folks betting $200 a hand against this computer dealt game of BJ...

How many out there are willing to bet $200 a hand on this regular BJ game ...??? LOL

Thats what I thought...

 

that's ok

fgk42 - it gave me a chance to brag about five final tables in nine tourneys - it is fun to kick butt occassionally - I went ten in a row without a final table earlier this year - got to semis in eight of them - and couldn't get through to a final - even in the one where 3 of 6 advanced - ultimate humiliation - my brother in law - who I gave an hour of tbj lessons to for his first tourney - - was one of the ones who did advance to the final from my semi-final table - along with the obligatory drunk-all-in-guy and clueless-cute-girl - I had to watch my brother-in-law smirk as he counted his winnings and flirted with the clueless-cute-girl - the gods of blackjack hated me - then I thought - 'sacrifice a chicken to the gods of bj before every tourney' -the gods of bj now love me -

define tactics/strategy -

tactics - figuring out final hand bets/plays - making 'moves' to gain the lead or catch up with the leader - even if using multi-step progressions - correlating bets - basically - everything in Wong (which I finally read) and everything everyone's posted here under the strategy and tactics forum is 'tactics' -

strategy - a plan for improving or establishing competitive position over a long series of hands -

if I have read some of the posts on this forum right - Hollywood Dave sometimes uses the early/mid hands to run repeated 5(?)-step progressions as a means of building up BR - that is a strategic approach to early hands play - looking to achieve a favorable position going into the late hands through a planned early sequence of bets - likewise Wong's advice to throw out nothing but minimum bets for endless hands - then chunk out all your chips in the late hands and trust to dumb luck is a 'strategy' of sorts - though if you are limiting yourself to that kind of simplistic play - you are giving up a lot of potential edge -

when I started playing tbj - I did not know this site - had not read Wong's book - and decided in my ignorance that tbj was a 'game of strategy' like chess - so I played several tournaments trying out different approaches and strategies for early and mid hands play - figuring that if I could get to the final hand as BR1 - I would think of something - I even play a 'tournament strategy' I developed in place of basic strategy for these hands - it is very light on doubling and splitting - heavy on surrender - when I started getting a strategy set together - I started getting to the final hands in good shape and getting an occassional final table - then decided I needed to develop some tactical play - so I could win more of those final hands - that's where this site has helped a lot - as well as playing on-line ebj - on-line ebj is pure tactics - and I have used it for tactics practice - a little while ago - I put together tournament strategy 2.0 - an expanded set of strategies - and much improved tactical play - and - obviously - some luck - and a few dead chickens - and the result has been five final tables in my last nine tourneys - and improvement in my online play -

but there is no thing such as a 4 hand strategy - that's still tactics - if I express displeasure with ebj - it is because I lose half of my edge because it gives so little room for strategic play - it emphasises luck in place of strategy - I am trying a lot of different ploys now to develop a strategic approach to ebj - not with great success - because everyone goes nuts going into the first elimination hand - trying to survive it - so getting through that hand is pretty much dumb luck - after that - play becomes much more rational - as you apparrently have noticed -

I see the opening bet in a tbj tourney as the equivalent of the opening move in a chess match - you have a playing strategy in mind that, over a sequence of 10-20 hands will place you as BR1 (or as advantageous a position as possible) going into the late hands - where you then need the tactical play to correlate/make moves/put together a final hand bet and play - etc. - tbj in the early/mid hands is a chess match - and as in chess - you have to be flexible and willing to adjust yout strategies and change strategy as the game dictates - and sometimes bring in tactical play - even early on -

when someone posts that you play the first 75% of the hands on cruise control - they are saying they are willing to give up half of their potential edge by not using these hands for strategic play - why would you wait until hand 15 to start playing to win?

I figure half of whatever edge I have comes from strategic play - half from tactical play - and a little bit from synergy - so when I do play against better players now - I lose some of my edge because they have tactical skills - maybe much better than mine - but I always seem to retain a strategic edge over even very good tactical players - if I get to the final hand as BR1 and with betting position - that makes up for a lot of any tactical edge someone may have over me -

and, of course, playing against Barney is an edge all by itself

Barney - go to wizard of odds site - the blackjack page - go to the menu under online gaming - and check out blacklisted casinos - he discusses some of the software stuff there - some is scary - evidently one provider of casino software was actually advertising that the online casino could set their software to automatically take back winnings from players that won too much money - and that it would assure the casino that no one ever won a big jackpot - he also mentions software that produces anomalous outcomes - even if not designed to disadvantage the player -

 

Anomalous results are normal in ebj

I am adding one more post to this thread - as I have searched out info on Ultimate Bet's random number generator - and reviewed some past posts/analysis I have done -

I could not find anything on UB's bj site about how they generate the random numbers and shuffle for bj - but on their poker stuff - they give a very good rundown of how they generate and use random numbers - they use thermal noise from twinned zener diodes - mix the streams - use a whitening function - and test the results for randomness using the DIEHARD tests - this is standard stuff - and they are following the standard, recommended procedures - to assure randomness - moreover - they access the random number stream as needed - mixing calls for different tables/decks as they request numbers - I can't imagine they would not use the exact same rng and procedures for bj as poker - especially since their setup is cheap - hardware rngs like this retail for from $250 to $1,000 - very affordable - easy to set up and use - I feel confident that we can trust that their shuffles are truely random and that the resulting hands are randomly dealt -

so why do we all see 'anomalous' deals? - go back to a post I made some time ago on another thread - talking about probabilities in short sequences of hands -

the probability functions for bj are discrete distributions - that means only whole numbers, integers - while the expected frequency of stiffs in an eight hand sequence may be 3.4 stiffs - you can't have 3.4 stiffs - you can have 3 - or you can have 4 - but there is no such thing as .4 stiffs - (note: these numbers are hypothetical - meant to be illustrative - I am traveling and don't have access to my home computer) -

as a result - you have to look at the probability mass function - and its shape - with 10 or more hands in a sequence - the resulting distribution is pretty symetrical - looks a lot like a bell-shaped normal distribution - with 8 or fewer hands in the sequence - the distribution is skewed -

what this means is that with a sequence of ten or more hands - you can play tbj and use the expected probabilities you are used to seeing in live bj - there will be more variance - but you are just as likely to drift towards favoring the player as the dealer - and vice versa - in short sequences - this is not the case -

for eight hand or fewer sequences - in somewhat more than 1/2 the sequences - the probability skewing favors the players - and the players will have a positive ev for the sequence - in somewhat less than 1/2 the sequences - the probabiliities skew towards favoring the dealer - and the players will face a negative ev worse than expected -

thus in eight hand sequences - you will get - more often than not - results favoring the players - the dealer dumps chips - and aggressive betting will be rewarded - and in the minority of sequences - the dealer will take down the players hard - exactly what you see in ebj -

the problem is not in the cards - they are behaving exactly as the probabilities project - the problem is in your expectation of what those probabilities are - the players on this site are pretty experienced and know what bj probs are - for the live game - and in tbj - which is a long sequence - at least 15 hands for a typical tbj table - in ebj - you have short sequence probabilities - as only 7 or 8 hands separate the elimination hands - so experienced players are playing the wrong probabilities - and the inexperienced ploppies with their aggressive betting are playing it right - they are taking advantage of the fact that at the majority of ebj tables - the first sequence of hands - leading to the first elimination hand - favor the player -

if you tracked live bj play by eight hand sequences - you would see the exact same skewing of results as you notice in ebj - you just don't pay attention to them in that way for live bj or tbj - as there are no 'markers' setting off the eight hand sequences for you - as the elimination hands do in ebj -

so - yes - we are seeing anomalous results in ebj - and that's normal and in accord with the actual probabilities -

change your expectations - and your play accordingly - and make the probabilities work for you -