Another Boo-Boo????

[tgun]

2 players, last hand, 1 advances to final table. No surrender.

BR 2 $2400 bets first $500 (max)
BR 1 $2500 bets $500

dealer up card 7
BR2 cards 10,6 hits to 18
BR1 cards 10,2

How should BR1 play this hand?

tgun

 

[Monkeysystem]

Hit It

Dealer upcard of 7 is the "swingmaker."

You want to be allergic to hitting busting hands when you're the leader and have the high-low correlation. But when the dealer shows 7 you'll need to in most cases.

You're slightly under 50% to win if you stand.

If you hit hard 16:

4/13 * 100% + 1/13 * 86% + 8/13 * 22% = 44%

If you hit hard 15:

4/13 * 100% + 1/13*86% + 7/13 * 22% + 1/13* 48% = 53%

Your hard standing number is 16.