Another interesting dilema

A friend was at the same tournament I was at Wednesday which I ask about in another thread. He was at another semi final table and lost in sudden death.

Both players at $1700 at the end of 20 hands, so they went to sudden death. Max bet is $300 so they both bet $300 on the first hand.

My friend had 17, the other player had 20(Not sure of the cards) while the dealer had a 7 up. I believe my friend played first.

My friend stood with the 17. I think he should've doubled. The reason was because the only way he makes it to the next hand is dealer hitting 21 or busting, or he gets off 17. Once you make the decision to hit, you need to double because the other guy could split his tens on you if you get a good card.

The dealer did have a 10 down so my friend pushed while the other guy won. Aftwards they checked and the next card was a 3, so with a double the worst my friend could've done was remain tied.

 

mrbill

#1 the probability of the next card matters but not the actual card (he would have received a 3 therefore he should have DD does not work). #2 They both made the mathematical incorrect bets. 1st player(your friend) over bet and his opponent could have taken the adv. by betting less,wont get into the particulars, whether he should have is a judgement call. #3 It is a huge adv. to stand your friend made the mathematical correct decision (Stand=34% tie vs 70% lose with only a 30% chance to tie,lose or win if double) Coming out with book where I will be more explicit. Good luck.( hint could force opp. to lock you out if you double and catch, by the way only a 3 and a 4 will make your friend the fav. and they could get him locked out) All %s are estimates like to round off for simplicity.

 

I don't understand this. #2 betting less is only an advantage if both lose. If both win then my friend advances because he ends the hand with more money.

I understand the percentages but does it take into account the dealer has a 10 down and with a push my friend is out of the tournament.

 

mrbill

No mrbill #2 betting less is an adv. if your friend loses and supposedly thats the way they build Las Vegas and ever other Casino in the world. Give me a break. And if they both win your friend does not necessarily advance hope you can figure that one. No it does not take into account the dealer's hole card because we don't know what it is Hello It does take into account dealer 17. Please forgive my sarcasm i am just a "ahole at heart"

 

If the other player bets less than my friend and they both win how do you figure my friend wouldn't advance. It's Sudden death, whoever has the most at the end of the hand moves on. I do realize the other guy could double or split and take care of that, but you can't count on that when you're making your bet.

 

mrbill

I said if other player would have bet less after your friend bet max the other player would have had the adv. never said anything about both win. Your not listening mrbill. It was a hypothetical.

 

Actually I would say I stated the question wrong. Should have said "If other player would have bet less how can he have the advantage?"

 

mrbill

You friend would have to win w/ few exceptions. If the cards come out to your friend's adv. his opp. would have lots of defenses. I might add that some player may opt to match here because less riskey. I go into much more detail in my book. There is lots to know about this situation trust me.

 

I do believe there is lots to know about this situation, but I have nothing to base any trust in you other than you say you are experienced and are writing a book. Give us something other than your word to base that trust on and eventually you'll earn it.

Maybe I'll buy your book and maybe I won't. Don't know how I'd identify your book since the only name I have for you is "The Ghost". My buying it won't be based on anything you have written, so far all you've done is shill for your book, at least that's the way it looks to me.

 

Similar thread

Mr Bill,

Try this thread for the answer to your question. "Tie Breaker Betting Question" started by Rich Garcia on 2/7/05. It goes into a lot of good detail on why betting low second is best strategy.

You can find these by using the search feature at the top and putting in key words. I used "sudden death" to find this one out of several that have those two words in it.

I think that particular thread is one of the best discussions on the topic.

Pat

 

Thanks for reminding me of the search function. Someday I'll remember to use it before I post.

Reading through that I now understand why a lower bet is an advantage.

I guess I'd still like some comment on what my friend did though. Given that both bet $300, it's sudden death. My friend had a 17, other guy had 20 and dealer had a 7 showing. Given that a dealer 17-20 give the round to the other player, what should my friend have done?

 

mrbill (what should your friend have done)

STAND=32%(tie) Double=11-12%(W) Double= 1%(Tie) if nothing changes. Hit not a viable opt.All #s close estimates. Judgement call I would double just to get it over with one way or another know that does'nt sound very professional but I would be pretty much on tilt for having received that situation. Do you want to tie 32 times out of a 100 or do you want to win 11-12 out of a 100. Hope this helps, Read my book be out before end of year. If your friend had this info at least he/she could make a more informed decision. Good probabilites to you.

 

Mr Administrator

Nice way to welcome someone false accusations of arrogance. You might want to join the real world because just about every one is self-serving that is how we eat.
Rather than being so pompous as to think you can dictate how and what I have to say you might remember we are still in the good old USA where i believe we still have freedom of print. I never implied that i have all the answers but that sounds like your ego when it runs into someone who probably forgot more about this game than you'll ever know. About your friendly community i guess this is how they express their friendship and i quote " I'd be honored to punch the shit outta you ", " Kay everyone can stop sucking Joep's cock now " , Put your hand down your crotch and tell me if you feel anything " yeah nice friendly community of like-minded people get off you hypocritical high horse and listen you just might learn something and from what i've seen of your level you have a long way to go Trust me. Make it a nice day Mr. Administrator "There's always a better bet" is probably true for most of yours. See what happens when you attack new members.

 

Personal attacks

Ghost,

Before you go off on Ken by quoting some of the remarks made on this forum on other threads, you need to understand that he does a terrific job moderating this forum. If you had been here and gotten to know the people making those comments you would understand that those comments are not as serious as they appear. Yes, some do get a bit out of hand, but Ken has been more than fair about not censoring comments, but he walks a fine line as moderator to keep flaming that occurs on other discussion groups from spilling over to this forum. I hope you will reconsider your comments and use some moderation in the future. We are all here to learn and are interested in having you share your knowledge with us too, but if you continue your attacks of everyone on this list, I would support Ken in removing you from this discussion group.

Pat

 

Ghost Vs Hollywood

Ghost vs Hollywood could they be the same person? Im starting to think so. He is using many of the same lines as that little short guy who thinks he knows it all.One of them is enough for this board,my vote is to flame the FLAMER and kick ghost off. :joker:

 

Move ON Trash Mouth

You said:

I never implied that i have all the answers but that sounds like your ego when it runs into someone who probably forgot more about this game than you'll ever know


If you forgot about it then it wasn't important anyway.But telling Kenny Smith that his ego is to big is like telling Hollywood that he need's more color in his hair.You are like a fly at a picnic stay away from the food and go where you belong.If you cant figure out where,let me direct you, it's on top of the pile of warm steaming dog shit.If you dig deep enough you might even find your trash book there. :joker:

Have you figured out yet what 10% of 400,000 is yet.

 

Holy crap, Batman!

i just checked in with this thread for the first time & wow what a doozy! GHOST you now officially get the "Most Egomaniacal Prick" award, something i've held here for quite some time but now have clearly been usurped. What an assjack! (Or what was the new name Rick came up with -- Hollyjoe Dickpanewood or something?)

As for the allegations of Ghost & Hollywood being one & the same, all i can say is -- not even I am that arrogant! And we all know I don't have ANY trouble posting my own strong opinions...

And as far as Ghost pulling up certain candid statements that others (ie, me) have made on this board in the past, all i can say is what i said this weekend to BJFAN4 (who turned out to be a charming old French Canadian dude with a hot wife to boot!) at the Hilton -- its not the words that you use, but the intention behind them that is important. So Ghost just because you don't use swear words in your posts doesn't mean your language is not designed to be negative, condescending, and hurtful. And who the hell is gonna buy one of your lame-ass books if this is how you approach your public?

I think we should settle this the way we settle all of our disputes here: on a blackjack table. If you think you're so awesome, Ghost, than I'm sure you wouldn't mind sitting down with me, Joe Pane, Ken Smith, and a few other tourney pros who would relish knocking the crap outta you in a tournament & taking your money in the process! Set the date & we'll be there, chump...

-holly d.

 

Holy crap, part two

Hollywood,

Although you and this charming California dude have had disagreements in the past, I give you 2 thumbs up and a pat on the back for your post in this thread. You are like tomato juice in a tabasco bottle compared to Ghost and I say that without the benefit of Valium.

If Ghost accepts your tournament challenge please let me know when and where, I'll cancel my brain surgery and bring a 6 pack of your favorite beer to attend.

 

Mr Administrator

I guess i'll move on so good luck you will certainly need it you have the sickest bunch of puppies i have just about ever heard. You need to start over and get rid of these vulgar,vindictive,virulent and vile scum bags before they bring you down. Make it a great life.
THE GHOST