Another Tulsa Situation

Discussion in 'Blackjack Events (USA)' started by KenSmith, May 26, 2007.

  1. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    As requested by fgk, I'll post a series of hands from the Wednesday Night tournament. The situations aren't really all that interesting, but hey, not every round delivers the intrigue we all love.

    After the round was over, I jotted down the bankrolls and bets from the last 3 hands. I didn't recall the cards from the third-to-last hand though, so we'll have to gloss over that part.

    The round is 24 hands, betting $10 to $500 in $10 increments. Surrender is allowed, all doubles are face-down, dealer stands on soft 17. Two advance from this round.

    Hand 22 of 24, in button order:

    J Leland:...$ 450....$450
    Kacie B: ...$1310....$100
    Me: ........$1215....??
    Someone: ...$1165....

    I'll leave off my bet and Someone's bet until we get some opinions.
    Note that the button will be on Kasey next hand, and me on the final hand.

    My bet should be ???

     
  2. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    My vote is $200 and be prepared to surrender any weak hand. A $200 win puts you in good position and possibly the chip lead. I would not want to bet more at this time because a large loss could be devastating given the tight field. Also, a large win could trigger a "bombs away" attitude from the other players.

    PS:
    Is this teaser an attempt to curtail fgk42's pictures? :laugh: :joker:
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2007
  3. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member

    If

    Youre worried about "someone" on last hand making a good play a $430 bet with a strong conviction to surrender as a surrender here would leave you with good ammo of $1000. Otherwise 210 to put you ahead of Kacie.
     
  4. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Ken on the button on the last hand

    Assuming we are going for first place here and bearing in mind where the button will be on the last hand I would consider $300 initially to beat Kacie's double. I would also consider $455 to get the high over BR3's max bet and to get a greater than 1/2 max bet lead over BR1.

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  5. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    I spent my time deciding between $200 (single bet high) or $300 (double bet high). I eventually chose $200, since I'll be able to see Kacie's bet on the next hand as well. I thought that I was likely to end up with 2nd low with my $200 bet, as I expected Someone to bet big. He didn't. He bet $30 instead.

    The bets looked like this:
    J Leland:...$ 450....$450
    Kacie B: ...$1310....$100
    Me: ........$1215....$200
    Someone: ...$1165....$ 30

    I was the only loser, while Someone pushed.

    Next hand:
    Hand 23 of 24, 2 advance:
    Kacie B: ...$1210....$100
    Me: ........$1015....???
    Someone: ...$1165....
    J Leland:...$ 900....

    Now what?
     
  6. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    didn't Kacie lose?

    I'd bet $340. Gives you probable 2nd high as I expect BR4 to split his BR and Someone will simply bet to take 1st high 2nd low.

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  7. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member

    Leland

    is trouble now as you can about guarantee he will go 450. 340 or max for you.
     
  8. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    amount of bet

    130 dollars - 95 out of first place and 50 over 3rd. place - now's the time to be cautious and keep it close. a 130 win will gain some on the leader in a win win situation, and a lost/win situation will give you a 100 dollar lead, and a lost/lost will only put you down by 125. that's as complicated as i would get. to consider the 3rd place man now there are 8 different situation and thats just too complicated - yellow flag time - keep it close and cautious!
     
  9. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    h 23

    hand 23 - go 250 and hand 24 go 500 is you lose hand 23. if you win hand 23 then u have to refigure hand 24.
     
  10. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    h 22

    someone made a keep it close and cautious bet as he is going for the show and not the win. when you stepped up with a 200 bet he simply wanted to cut your lead (50) in half with a 30 dollars bet and that's what he did! and more he got an 85 dollars lead over you and now you under the gun! good play for "someone" - give him a star!
     
  11. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    h 23

    what happened?
     
  12. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Hand 23:
    My vote is to bet the max of $500. You are in a bad playing position for this and the last hand. That and the fact that the field is too tight to get any type of precision bet working for you. A win with a max bet sets you up good for the last hand where you bet first. Again, be prepared to surrender any weak hand to have any chance of finishing 1st or 2nd.
     
  13. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    hands

    was anyone counting cards and many decks?
     
  14. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Back to hand 22 for a minute:

    Sorry, but that logic makes no sense to me. With Ken making a $200 before "somebody", betting $30 to cut a lead in half would only work if Ken pushed.

    Looks to me like "someone" had no clue as to how much to bet. He just got lucky.
     
  15. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    catch 22

    after 22 hands - the leader is only 95 dollars in front and third place is only 50 dollars behind. these guys are almost just as good as each other. since no one can read the future, unless someone is counting the cards, i would assume the final 3 hands would almost be equal. that we can quess with some degree of accuracy over the long run, so therefore if i know that fact i can assume that the lead over the next 3 hands will also be about the same. playing an average game would be the best policy and 3rd man did indeed cut the lead. 2 of 3 will go on. the odds are with someone now. ofcourse we got h 24 and h 25 coming up and the bets will be must bets. still i would now bet only 250 and double that in hand 25 if i lost h 24. i still can get in with a profit of at least 250 over the last two hands. "all things average"
     
  16. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    also i disagreed with ken's bet of 200. 130 dollars should have been his bet. now he is 150 down with only 2 hands to go.
     
  17. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member

    Cats, he has bad position on last hand. He needs to lead at least one of his competitors AT LEAST ONE!

    If you're interested Ken has a tourney guide that is probably the best info available to get started playing tournaments. And its dont cost a fity cent ante LOL
    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-tournaments.php
     
  18. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    my money is on the leader, someone, and ken to show!
     
  19. cats50

    cats50 New Member

    hand 22

    hand 22 - bets in order 100, 200 ken, 30 and offcourse somewhere back there betting like a nut is fourth place.

    after 22 leader = 1410, 1015 ken, 1165 someone

    button on ken last table-

    leader should bet 250 dollars, ken 250 dollars, someone 250 dollars and has 4th pulled off a miracle yet?
     
  20. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    First, Reachy, yes Kacie lost hand 22. My statement about being the only loser was inaccurate. The stated bankrolls for #23 were correct.

    Hand #23, results:
    Kacie B: ...$1210....$100....T8
    Me: ........$1015....$400....T2
    Someone: ...$1165....$ 30....T6
    J Leland:...$ 900....$250....459
    Dealer 25T

    My bet was to cover a possible Kacie double (plus a $10 buffer to allow a min-bet possibility from the button if available), but still leave surrender as an option. Once the cards are out, I have 12v2, and I decide that the push has little value for me, so I stand. Of course, the next card out is 9, and I get swung by 2 out of 3 opponents. Now I'm almost dead.

    Hand #24:
    Me: ........$ 605....$500....T64
    Someone: ...$1135....$500....83 Dbl(?)
    J Leland:...$1150....$500....TT
    Kacie B: ...$1310....$500....623T
    Dealer 5TT

    I had a small chance after improving to 20, but once Kacie made 21 I was dead. I made a mistake on this hand though. Doubling would buy me a win over a push by Someone or Leland. Instead, I was so focused on not limiting myself to just one card that I hit instead of doubled. Either way, I was a huge long shot at this point.

    I ran some numbers on this play... After the initial hands are dealt, I have a 3.38% shot if I double, and only a 2.91% shot if I hit to 19 or better. (Hit to 18 yields a 2.88% chance.)


    Well, I'm off to play the semifinals in the main event next.
     

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