I hope everyone isn't getting tired of these, as I feel like a learn a lot from them. Here is my most recent one. I will say that I'm beginning to feel like no matter what I do or an elimination hand, it's the wrong decision. Here's the senario: BR3--50,500--1st to act--uses secret bet BR1--68,500--2nd to act--bets 12,000 BR2--58,000--3rd to act--bets 25,000 BR3--49,500--last to act--?? How much would you bet if you are BR3 with secret bet still available? I'll go over the rest of the details after I hear what others would have bet.
Love 'em! Firstly, I never tire of these posts! I love 'em! In fact there aren't enough of them. We need a minimum of 1 a day. Your problem is a difficult one and you are in a pickle from the off as you are BRL. The odds are already stacked against you but at least you are last to act. A read on BR3 would be helpful as you could probably take the second low if you don't think they've taken the low. You could bet $1500 hoping to get 2nd low and also cover a BR3 push. If you think BR3 has taken the low against you I'd bet anything from $2.5K up to $16K, probably favouring the bigger bet as it still gives you 3rd low but more options to win at the high end with swings from the BR1, 2 and/or 3 plus you could DD if that's what it takes. Cheers Reachy
Secret Bet When LB1 BR2 offered you the low, and cannot surrender out of it. You should take it. Let's assume the others used their secret bet too, or there are no others. If BR3 bet the max, you can't have the high. If BR3 bet the min, you have to get paid. You don't want to be correlated. Bet something somewhat higher than the lead plus double the bet BR3 would use to take the low. Don't bet so much that you'll be crippled if you advance by losing less. A secret bet somewhere between 2,500 and 5,000 would do the trick in this case. If BR3 thinks you might try something like that, he/she would have to get extremely lucky to correlate you. You can have all kinds of fun with this. If you think you'll need one and only one card, DD for 500 to hide that card from BR3. Of course if you have a read on BR3 that you are confident in you can make a bet to oppose.
Thanks for your replies. I didn't have a very good read on BR3, but my guess was that he was going to bet max. He had been a conservative bettor, but had put big bets out when needed at other points in the game. Since I coudn't get a read I felt I had to assume he bet max. I ended up betting 3,500. I thought a max bet (or split bank since I was just under 50,000) would do no good since I would have to double down to gain the lead if all won the hand. 3,500 would put me ahead of BR2 even if he surrendered, forcing him to win. I used my secret bet also, which I'm not sure I should have done. Maybe letting them see I took the low would have caused them to play their hands differently. Anyway, the outcome... BR3--hard 12--hits to 15 and stands BR1--hard 19--stands BR2--hard 14--stands BR4 (me)--hard 17--stood Dealer shows a 7. I felt really good at this point as the only way I can lose is a dealer bust. Of course that's exactly what happened, and I got eliminated. I began wondering if I should have made my bet open. If they would have seen that I took the low, maybe they would have been willing to hit until they busted or made hands, instead of standing on stiffs. Of course there are always what if's and maybe's, but my main whine is that it doesn't seem to matter if I take the low or bet big for the lead I can't seem to be able to get the win to advance. :sad:
