Hand 30 2 players BR1 52,000 and on the button BR2 51,000 BR1 - uses secret bet - I assume that they bet max 25,000 not sure BR2 - me - no secret bet left - bet 25,000 BR1 - 17 BR2 - 3,7 for 10 Dealer has Ace up. BR1 - passes on insurance BR2 - I have 26,000. I plan on doubling down. I was planning on putting 1,000 as insurance but couldn't figure out if it was a good bet - got time out so no insurance Dealer turns a BJ BR1 - bet 25,000 and wins 27,000 to 26,000 Questions: 1. Should I have taken the insurance? 2. In a position where you are betting second and up against the max bet limit is there any advantage of betting 1/2 max bet first and just doubling?
me again Sorry, it's me. I'll get my 2 penneth in and I guess if I'm too wrong someone will weigh in with the correct answer The answer is yes to the insurance question. If you'd have insured you would have won, simple as that - BR1 - 27000, You - 28000. If the dealer didn't paint the ace you could still double and have as much chance of winning as you did if you didn't insure. I think Wong mentions something about insurance as BR2 in CTS. Your question about 1/2 max bet then doubling, I don't see the benefit to it over any other form of taking the low. Yes it gives you the low, it locks them out of surrendering which forces BR1 to win or push to beat you but your double doesn't give you the high. If you were to bet 1/2 the difference between your current BR and BR1's position should he win his bet (plus a chip of course) that might be more useful. In your example that would be a $13.5K bet. If you doubled and won that would give you $77K and BR1 would only have $76K. Plus they still can't surrender into you. In fact any bet up to $22K would lock BR1 out of surrendering. So I don't know whether any of this helps or is actually of any value but I like to analyse these situations and spout my findings for all and sundry to see. Cheers Reachy PS. The above assumes a BR1 max bet of course!
The "catch" is I don't KNOW for sure that BR1 did bet max. If BR1 bet min and I bet min I lose. That's the brillance of the secret bet.
The benefit of betting less than max is that hopefully it give you an idea of what the other person bet! If they bet min and you bet 1/2 max or max they usually don't do anything. However lets assume that they bet 5,000 or 10,000 They see that your bet, assuming you win, will beat them and so they double down. NOW you know they've got more bet and it opens the possibility of a surrender trap or forcing them to take a less than optimal number of hits. Betting a minimum bet in this situation limits my options to only winning if the dealer wins. As far as not taking the insurance in this example I knew that I should have I just ran out of time - normally I NEVER take insurance but in this case it was the difference between first and second.
interesting point... Hi fgk This is of course where poker and TBJ intersect but I'd like to examine some of your points. If you bet min wouldn't they also do nothing as you can't beat them? If they only bet 5000 even a double down wouldn't beat you. A bet of 22K (see my 1st post) would not only beat 5K but also beat their 10K doubled. OK I realise that the numbers you picked were arbitrary but I thought I'd point it out If BR1 doubled they could still keep the high and low on you (unless of course you doubled) but yes, a surrender from you would force them to win or push which makes it a coin toss. I wouldn't bet minimum here. The lowest I'd bet would be 1500 which covers a BR1 push with a win from you. Your odds of winning would be 48%+2%=50% (Not sure where privador got 57% from). As for the insurance issue, they don't give you a lot of time at bet21/playubt so it often times out on me as well!! Just to return to your more general point about sizing your bet to reveal the size of your opponents secret bet, as I alluded to this is an area where "bluffing" may have a part to play. BR1, with a minimum or small bet out could double it without affecting his chances either way but create the impression that he had a much bigger bet out thus affecting your decision and play making. Just a thought.... So here is a question back at you. What should BR1 do if the dealer doesn't have a natural? Cheers Reachy
Reachy, Excellent points - it is hard to figure all that out in 45 seconds - at least it is for me! The optimal bet in that case would likely have been 1500 - assuming that BR1 was betting minimum. That way it forces BR1 to dd on his stiff since that is the only way to beat me, unless the dealer wins. As far as poker and bluffing yes the secret bet does that. Having the dd card dealt down does it as well. What I didn't put in the post is that during the 45-seconds I chat "out loud" For example in this hand I wrote something like: high or low What should I do a max bet or a minimum bet hmmmmmmm BR1 chimed in - do you really have a choice? Ah-ha! I assummed he thought I was going max because of that. I should have gone contrarian at that time. The dealer was not "hot" and I fell onto the old cliche, when in doubt put it out! Had the dealer NOT gotten BJ I would have liked MY chances in that case: BR1 - stiff 17 me 10 - knowing full well that I would double - heck I would chat that I was going to do it and try and force BR1 to dd first. Not that it would work but what the heck!
secret bet reading through the comments I was intrigued by the secret bet.What is the secret bet and how is it implimented.I'm always looking for fun ideas for our little tournaments and this one sounds interesting
Secret Bet - B&M casinos I assume you are talking about Brick & Mortar Casinos as opposed to on-line casinos. At the beginning of a round, each player is given a piece of paper which allows each player to make 1 "secret bet" during the round. The secret bet can be made by the player at any time by writing down his bet on the paper, folding it, then placing it in the betting circle instead of chips. If he wins or loses, the dealer gives or takes the amount bet. Complications arise when a double down or split occurs, and your rules should provide for those circumstances, i.e does the player have enough to cover?, what about doubling for less?, etc. . I have only played in 1 tournament that had a secret bet so I don't feel qualified to get into a "double down" or "split" discussion. Maybe some else can jump in and help. How secret bets are handled on-line can best be answered by Reachy. I noticed Reachy is on-line right now but he seems to stuck on the "who's on line" page. I think he fell asleep at the computer since his local time is 2:00am. But maybe Flat Eric is around to lend a hand. On a separate note, I noticed you posted your tournament on the CALENDER but did not give it a name. There is a minor quirk in the system that you should be aware of. Once the listing leaves the "recent update" list (in 7 days), the details of the tournament will not be accessible if it does not have a name. You can solve this problem by simply giving it a generic name like "Blackjack Tournament". You can edit your CALENDER posting if you like to avoid this problem. I'm too far away to play in your tournaments but I wish you success in your endeavors.
Secret Bet: Some weeks back and on, I don't know what thread, Ken Smith posted a detailed account of actions and options on SECRET BET. Maybe after he wins St. Kit's, he could re post the details, along with what's goin on on SECRET ACTION option, if it indeed exists.
