Last night I didnt advance to final table while playing at blackjack21.com because of one play. On the 5th hand the count was climbing and hardly any tens came out to players. I had 2000 left in my BR. This is what happened I beat 200 Dealer 4 up Me 6-6 split 8-6 6-6 split to 8-6 10-6 6-3 dbled the 6-3 to 19 Obviously I had opened myself to a great deal of risk $800 on table. Even tho I think it isnt that high percentage of a play I felt good with one hand at 19 and I was pretty sure dealer had 4-10 then it went like this Dealer pops a 10 to go with 4. next card is a 7 for 21 dealer takes the table. What would you do? Stand on 6-6? In retrospect, with 3/5 advancing, I think I should have stood. I had to fight the rest of the game and had to rely upon Walt losing his hand to advance. Maybe with so many advancing and so early in game the conservative route is best. tia, Barney
Me also That happened to me at GP on Wednesday. Split 2-2 vs dealer 5, got 2-10, 2-2, resplit the 2s, for 2-9, which I DD for 15, and 2-8 which I hit for 14. I think I had about $200 out as well so ended up with $800 which was about 1/2 my BR. Of course the dealer got a hand and I lost. I suppose the question is would I have been comfortable betting $800 from the off to which the answer would be no. Even when the dealer has a 5 the odds are just under 60% that he's going to make a hand. Cheers Reachy
Reach's 2-2 Is a much better hand for splitting than my 6-6. But still these are basic strat moves. Reach, Im pretty sure the probability of the dealer busting with 4-5-6 are near .60, and a .40ish on avg for making a hand. If you could turn a 5 into a hand .60 of time you would pound it against any dealer up card? As the game goes, we always remember our failures, not the times we won all three hands off the splits. The first thing I thought of this morning, when reflecting upon my play, was the play that went bad not the good fights and plays in the first game that advanced me nor my recoil moves that almost made up for my split disaster. B
Dealer outcome charts Barney - go to http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-dealercharts.php#6DS17 to see what the dealer outcomes are for various upcards. The dealer showing a 5 upcard will only bust 41.84% of the time!!!! Don't forget that just because they are showing a it 5 doesn't mean they have a 10 under. There is only about a 30% chance that that's the case. Cheers Reachy
Reachy is right. You're looking at about a 40% bust probability with a dealer 4 give or take some depending upon specific rules. I guess it's personal preference, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on the table unless I was in a situation where I absolutely needed to.
6-6 I THINK YOUR PLAY WAS A GOOD CHOSE BUT THE CARDS JUST WERE NOT THERE A HAND POUNDED ME WITH THE DEALER SHOWING A 6 I HAD ACES SO I SPLIT AND RECEIVED 2 6S FOR 2 SOFT 17S DEALER HAD A 10 UNDER AND DREW TO A 19 SO I LOST MY HANDS -HIND SITE BEING 20/20 I WISH I HAD JUST DOUBLED THE ACES- REASON BEING I NOT ONLY LOST THE HANDS BUT I WAS 50 DOLLARS SHORT FROM ADVANCING TO SEMI-FINALS IN TULSA FOR WORLD SERIES OF BLACKJACK 06 QUALIFYIER DAMN I WAS PISSED AT MY SELF FOR WEEKS THAT WAS MY LAST CHANCE TO QUALIFY BUT THAT IS THE NATURE OF THE GAME
Yes true Sir Reach the bust rate is near .60 if you or dealer has 14 15 16. In this case the odds favored the dealer at 14 because the count was climbing fast. So, maybe this is an example of the counting working in favor of the player because the 10 was there(even tho it failed LOL). On the other side if the dealer has a .40 prob of busting, which is still high, if you dbl it increases your reward by 2x and gives you a chance to make a hand over 18 which is powerful. So, the play is a basic strat play as it will pay off in long run. The question here, is the long run a good enough meter to assign so much risk in a tournament? 2-2 should yield 1 good hand at least. 6-6 not so sure. Thanks for the clarifying the card up theory. Barn
BTW, low card-10 card ratio Had dropped from 2.50-1 to about 1.9-1 before dealer flipped her 10 for the 14 and then a 7 for 21( looking at my scratch notes). Its always a hard math problem to figure out what this ratio change does to a probability chart. Probability charts are hands off stats as are infinite theory charts, I think any way! Ignoring the math, my real question was, is splitting 6-6 vs. dealer up 4 a good play when it exposes you to a high risk of tournament money? Thanks for all the replies. fwiw B
Just my 0.02 Barney, Here's my .02 (for what it's worth). When I have a 6-6 (12) vs. a dealer with a 4 showing I ask myself what am I trying to accomplish. Let me clarify. If I'm BR1 and comfortable with the fact that doubling my bet won't "kill me" then I take a chance and split. Why? I'm BR1 and hopefully I can afford to do it. If I'm BR(last place) and need to "catch up" - once again probably yes with the hope that the dealer busts and I double my initial bet. Having said that if my bet is large in comparison to by existing BR remaining I'll wait for a better opportunity. [Once again here I'm assuming that this 6-6 vs. 4 is in the first half of the tourney - meaning there is no rush; totally different if this occurs in the final 3 hands] When I'm in the middle of the pack I gotta be honest with you it varies. With a high count I'd be more inclined to split. With a negative count I'd be inclined to just stand. In fact with a negative count I may even just hit the 12 vs. 4. (I know THAT doesn't make sense but hey I've done it.) Is it the best play? Probably not. Then again I'm NOT the best player by any stretch of the imagination I'm "learning". In my opinion that's why posts like this are invaluable to me because I learn and hopefully will help me like it did last night to advance to round two. In that case last hand and I was BR6 (out of BR6). Instead of maxing out I went for 1/2 BR. Got BJ vs. dealers A. What to do? I "almost" took insurance but realized with the other players BR's it wouldn't do me any good. Then I doubled on the BJ and pulled the 10. That was enough to put me into BR3 and advance. Prior to reading many of these posts (mainly like this and the teasers by Reachy/Ken/Arlick/Bluelight/Joep and others) I had the knowledge to get me thru to the next level. So what's best? I'm hoping to learn the percentage tables and I'm studying (really I am) but sometimes the cards just don't work for you. I saw that happen at our table last night!
Splitting All joking aside......... This is a very serious part of TBJ. Not just because of basic strategy but it also REALLY affects the BR! For example: 10-10 vs. dealer 5 or dealer 6 When do you split vs. when do you stand? I've done both depending upon the hand that we're playing and how much money I've got up and my relationship to the other players BR. My question in this case is what is the "right" play?
Risk Management It's been my experience that it's seldom worth the risk to put three sizeable bets on the table unless you're way behind and have nothing to lose. You made the bet you did for specific reasons, and probably would not have put three times that much money on the table. If you're not willing to risk three times as much money as your original bet, then don't resplit and don't double down after a split. Don't split pairs that you wouldn't split if doubling down weren't allowed after splitting, for example, 2-2 against 2. The old saying "in for a penny in for a pound" doesn't usually apply to tournament blackjack risk management. Of course, if you're still nickling along with minimum bets in the early hands, you should probably stick with basic strategy, even if it means resplits and DAS's.
Ruin Basic strategy was developed upon the assumptions that you would be playing an infinite number of hands - with an infinite bankroll - neither is likely true - basic strategy does not take into account risk of ruin - and in tournament play risk of ruin is not simply going bankrupt - risk of ruin is probablistic - based on relative chip counts - that's why conservative betting strategies tend to work well in tournaments - they reduce risk of ruin - in making your splits - regardless of the cards out - you greatly increased your risk of ruin - minimizing risk of ruin is as important as making positive probability expected value advantage plays such as doubling and splitting under basic strategy - splitting sixes against a dealer four is not a good play in tournaments - you increase your risk of ruin far more than any expected value increase you get from this type of play - in fact - most doubles and splits should be regarded as bad play in tournaments - as they greatly magnify your risk of ruin for little increase in expected value -
Basic Strat charts ignore any cards that have come out already, this is why counting and side counts of certain cards like aces, 4s, or 5s might be a big help at some time. In my case the count was neutral and the shoe pen was pushing over .50. All 5 player were then dealt low cards and when I split I got 2 more low cards. What this told me, seeing the board before the next players stood and dealer hit, was the dealers chance of having 14 were very high. Add to the 14 the very good chance the dealer would be drawing a pool of 10s. But she grabbed a 7. The lesson I learned from reading these replies, I thank you all, and thinking about it is I put too much risk up too early (5th hand). Like I told reach in a pm, if I stood on my 6-6 I and lost I would have been at 1800. I risked too much and went to 1200. My max reward would have put me to 2800 Risk was 1200 and no advance. Reward was 2800 and still a fight with my opponents as they lunged at me with big bets. B
