Beau Rivage $100K Invitational Hula Holidayz Tournament

Hello all fellow Blackjack fanatics!

I'm here to report how I'm doing so far in this tournament. Just played the 1st round and it came down to the very last hand.

Started with 4, last hand had only 3 of us, with only 2 in contention so I'll leave BR3 out of it. Here was the situation:

MAX BET: 20K
MIN BET: 500
ONLY 1 ADVANCES.

BR1 (2nd to act): 30K (bet 10K)
BR2 (me): 28250 (last to act), I bet 8000.

Now BR1 had been very big pretty much the entire tournament, and at least twice he bet his last 10K and either won or got a BJ getting him back in. Yes, it was quite annoying to keep witnessing that, but unfortunately there's nothing I could do about that. So it came down to hand 30, I bet 8K so that if we both lose, I win.

Dealer had 10 up, BR1 got dealt 10/10 and stood leaving the button to me. Hoping the dealer would win, I just stood on my 4/4 and dealer beat me but not BR1 so I ended up losing.

Do you think I should have doubled and hoped dealer busted instead? (he didn't) The more I'm thinking I prob should've done that since MORE THAN LIKELY BR1 would beat dealer right? Had I doubled and we both beat the dealer I would've advanced, BUT it would have defeated my original purpose of having 20250 unbet, hoping we both lose and I win by 250. What do you think???

 

Anyway dealer beat us both and I didn't advance, so I rebought and will play @ 6P and they will take 2 people so hopefully I can advance this time!!!!

 

If I'm reading this right you stood on your pair of 4s. As you have noted you would need the dealer to beat your opponent's 20 to be successful. Doubling would seem to be the best play here, since you then advance by winning your double (dealer doesn't need to bust). Seems more likely than hoping for a dealer 21. Yes, it would have defeated the purpose of your original bet, but your opponent's 20 had already pretty much done that! Your other option would have been to hit to 21 yourself in order to create a push/win swing, but that would have been a low percentage play.

Now I'm confused. I thought that you lost and your opponent won?

 

Ouch!

I hate to rub salt into the wound, but a quick sim says that you had a 28.8% chance of success by doubling vs only 8.8% by hitting to 21. My software doesn't even consider standing on a total less than 12 (hitting is never worse), so I don't have a number for your actual play.

 

I was also wondering about splitting the 4s and playing a no-bust strategy on each split hand. I'm not too sure how that would compare to doubling. By doubling you have some chance of making 18 (or 19 if you get an A), giving you the dealer 17 (and 18) in addition to the bust as ways you can advance.

By splitting it's more likely that at least one of the hands will be stiff, leaving you with only the dealer bust. On the other hand, you will sometimes make >17 on both hands, and if you make 21 on one of the hands then a dealer 21 is an advancing total for you.

 

thanks for the posts guys!

Wow, I dont know why I didn't even consider splitting and then possibly DOUBLING to get more money out but had I simply calculated 8K x 2 (doubling) and assuming we both win, I would've had 46,000, and he would've had 40K..... but for some reason at the time I was thinking my bet was too small and my total (8) was too weak to possibly advance but the more I think about it I really should've DOUBLED my 8 and just hoped that the dealer busted! Bec yeah, 29% is def. much more then 9%....... reason why I stood is that I thought i was just dead in the water.....

Sorry I wrote it wrong, BR1 beat the dealer, I'm the one who lost.

Can someone do a sim on what my chances are to split the 4's with possibility of DOUBLING on a (strong total) of 9, 10, or 11? Because that was obviously an option for me too, verses DOUBLING.... but maybe doubling still is best bet???

 

Sorry, I did have this but for some reason neglected to post it. The result for splitting the 4s and then playing optimal strategy is ~27.5%, so slightly worse than doubling.

The optimal strategy for the first split hand does indeed call for doubling 9 vs 7, 10 and 11 vs anything, 12 vs Ace and soft 15 vs 7, 8, 9, 10 and Ace. It is generally a no bust strategy standing on soft 18 or higher otherwise. There is a separate second-hand strategy for each possible first hand result.

I was also wrong when I said that I didn't have a result for standing on the pair of 4s. It is equivalent to standing on any stiff hand, so the probability of advancing was ~3.8%.

 

I agree

Here I agtree with gronbog's results for hitting to 21, doubling, and standing.


................................BlueLight

 

Thanks! It's always nice to have results confirmed by a reliable source.