Bet or Cards - whats most important?

In the past there was a debate about skill vs. luck as it related to BJT in general. I don’t wish to go down that road ok?

I am interested in people’s thoughts about which aspect is more important when playing EBJ/TBJT playing the cards or skilled betting.

Which aspect of your game do you pay more attention? Does one trump the other at any time?

Let me give you an example: I have personally seen a player who will hit on a stiff 16 versus a dealer face card with their bet is below 1000. Nevertheless this SAME person will surrender that same 16 versus a dealer face card when a bet of 5,000 or more is on the line.

So I know that both betting and playing strategy are important but as an individual player what do you think is the more important aspect when playing TBJ?

 

Placing bets

My tournament experience at this point is still limited and confined to "traditional" tournament formats, no EBJ. But, IMHO betting is hands down more important to the outcome than card playing. A player has zero control over what cards come out, but 100% control of his wagers.

That's not to say playing strategy isn't important, it is. But, the most important card playing strategies in tournament play (DD, DD for less, Splitting, Surrender, if offered) are still directly related to betting decisions and money management.

 

nostalgia

I always remember the time when I think I was playing against you early on and I had a lead going into the last hand but had to bet first. I misjudged my bet by a single bet increment, or at least a very small amount, and it reduced my odds of winning by about 25%. I know because I analysed it later after you swung me and won!

I think the way you play your cards is only slightly less important and as you know that is an area of study I'm pursuing at the moment.

Basic Strategy is dead! Long live Tournament Basic Strategy!

Cheers

Reachy

 

Betting and playing skills work hand-in-hand and as far as I'm concerned both are critical and cannot be separated for achieving long term success in tournament play. Your playing skills are useless if you bet like a ploppy. If your bet is right but you play like a ploppy, your long term results will be that of a ploppy. I know this from my personal experience yesterday, just ask Monkeysystem. On second thought, don't ask Monkeysystem and if he says anything about this I'll shoot him. :laugh:

 

Wrong!!! Basic strategy will never be dead. Of course one must deviate from BS in tournament play as the situation demands. However, the successful tournament play will always rely on BS as the starting point in determining the best play.

TOURNAMENT BASIC STRATEGY? What the hell is that anyway? It doesn't exit so how can one claim it is better???

 

You can never seperate these two....both are vitally important to your end result...and its the end result that you need to constantly examine and adjust for.

I will sometimes surrender and sometimes hit that 16 but never based on the bet amount.... rather on how important winning or losing that amount is to the final result Im looking for. Is the risk of bust worth this potiential swing value of this hand? Yes or no...hit, stand or surrender.

I make my best percieved bet based on my position....once placed I play my hand the best that I can but always taking into consideration my possible positions at the end of this hand....to decide that you need to examine all other players bets, hands, and typical personal issues and betting outcomes your opponents are likely to make...some playes you will learn always surender a 12 against ace for example....its a tell of sorts that you can use to your advantage.....gather all these, play your best , bet your best and you could be a WINNER too.

 

T.b.s.

Don't get your knickers in a twist Toolman. I get scared when you shout at me!

Sure BS is a great default strategy to take. It's great for reducing the rate at which you lose money to the house over the long term. However is it really appropriate for 20 - 30 hands of blackjack when you are playing against other blackjack players rather than the house?

Now this is only a fledgling thesis and I'm really only mentioning now to get feedback and input from others. I'm sure that other people have done/are doing work on this and may already have discounted it as tripe. So this discussion, if it gets going will be useful for me in formulating further hypothesis. Or convince me to drop it completely

BS is, and of course you don't need me to tell you, a long-term strategy for reducing your losses by playing to the limits of the house edge. However does it always maximise you potential for winning any given hand of blackjack? No it doesn't. When I first started visiting this great community I really loved the tourney teasers; tangible problems where you could often prove mathematically what the best course of action is. That's my bag! After a while of doing these I thought I'd apply these methods to regular everyday BJ situations. I was surprised by my results because I naively thought I would duplicate BS. I didn't. It was very similar but also different. It's then that I really started to realise the difference between the use of EV and probability in determining the best approach to any given situation. As you know, in the past I've had a problem with this concept, and you amongst others pointed out that EV was not the best way of determining correct action in a tournament situation. By changing my calculations around to calculate EV I managed to duplicate BS and I realised that at least I was on the right track in that respect.

So I thought I'd make my own Tournament Basic Strategy charts and play about with them. Now of course I realise that I'm not doing anything that 100's of other people haven't done before me, and since I see little evidence of them being used on a regular basis and there appears to be no additional literature on it, I'm assuming that it has been discarded as a viable strategy. Nevertheless I shall tell you what I have started to come up with and you can point out the holes.

Let's take 12, my least favourite hand total. I looked at it 2 ways; best way to win, best way not to lose. The distinction between the 2 is that to "win" means pushing isn't included in the calculations and to "not lose" means that pushing is included. From a purely probabilistic perspective the best way not to lose any single hand when you have 12 is to hit all but a dealer 6 (6 deck, H17). The best way to win is to stand on 12 vs. dealer 2 -6 inclusive then hit thereafter. Other differences of note from BS are hitting 13 vs dealer 2 & 3 to not lose, standing on 15 vs dealer 10 to win, and only hitting dealer 7 when you hold 16 and standing on the rest to win.

So my question. Knowing that you are more likely to not lose by hitting 12 vs dealer 15 what should you do in the early rounds of a tournament; hit or stand?

Cheers

Reachy

 

I think

most tournament players will say betting is more important - and that basic strategy - is what "guides" their play - with deviations as required by the strategic situation (relative chip counts, need to correlate results, bets, etc.) -

I believe this because no one apparently has done any meaningfull work on exactly what is the best way to play tournament hands - so all you have left to work with is bet sizing and basic strategy - and we all know you need to vary from basic strategy in tournaments at times - everyone assumes that basic strategy is the mathematically correct way to play bj hands - and you don't need to look further

I will state unequivocally - basic strategy is NOT how you should play tournaments - the goal in a tournament is NOT to maximize long term profit - it is to WIN THE TABLE - and you are dealing with an entirely different probability mathematics when you look at short sequences of hands from that perspective -

a good example - we all know that bj is a negative expectation game - but - in an ebj tournament - the first eight hands (the first "virtual table") - actually carry a POSITIVE EV FOR THE PLAYER 53% of the time. So aggressive betting during the first "virtual table" is advantageous - in ebj - the reason that the ev is positive at more tables than not - is that the proportion of stiffs (12-17) you receive at 53% of your 8 hand sequence virtual tables - will be substantially less than expected - due to probabioity drift -

in tournaments - you should also surrender more than bs calls for - and double and split far less - also due to the effects of probability drift on short hand sequences - as these changes in strategy will benefit you at the majority of TABLES played - and that is the critical point - winning tables -

I am using a heavily revised playing strategy for both on-line and in b&m casino tournaments - and since I have started to implement even this crude cut at a tournament strategy - I am running a 74.5% edge in b&m tournaments - and that is now over enough tournaments and tables to start being meaningfull - and I am still pretty ploppy at times at final hand play, chip counting, etc. - which I am working on still - with bet sizing and basic strategy as your only tool - I think a 50% edge is doing very well - probably close to the max you can maintain - with proper bet sizing and a mathematically correct playing strategy to base your hand play on - a skilled player could probably maintain an edge of as much as 100% -

hand play strategy and bet sizing are complimentary tools - but both are needed - tbj players have developed the bet sizing skills pretty well - the hand play strategies are unexplored in any meaningful way at this point -

 

Your gonna have to expand on this because I don't understand it.

Cheers

Reachy

PS. Would you hit or stand on 12 vs dealer 5, non-critical hand?

 

RK:
I think everyone on the forum is confused by your "probabioity drift" statement . More explanation is definitely needed.

Reachy:
You said: "Don't get your knickers in a twist Toolman. I get scared when you shout at me!"

I don't understand this either. I used no large letters, bold letters, underlined letters or italics. All in you honor from a request you made a month or so ago. Just talking my good man, just talking. Oh, and I don't have "knickers".

About your post at 3:38pm, Not sure I can put the right words together for a response. If others have a comment on this, please feel free to respond.

 

Both for me.

Interesting question line fgk. I replied both. This quote from toolman sums up my thoughts:

I think most would agree that betting is basic to the game.

But on play strategy, I'd add that looking at the %'s for various results for a given play can provide great info on when to deviate from BS at certain times. I like to think of 13 v. 2 as a good example of that.

Another would be: Why else do tournament players often DD on a 12 v., say, a 6? To make some chips! That's not BS, but it can be a great play when trying to bet-match or get a lead at a critical time.

 

now you've hurt my feelings!

You nearly burst my eardrums with the first part of that statement :sad:

I take it from your response to my 3:38pm post that you find little merit in it. Like I said it's early days and I'm just bouncing around some ideas but the differences between cash games and tourney games are significant. They have completely different objectives. In a cash game you want to grind out wins against the house over months, years, a lifetime. In tourney games you want to have more chips than your opponents after 30 hands and sod the house!

The additional complexities of TBJ vs cash BJ make the task of analysis of playing strategies a massive job, one that it appears Ken may be working on (see thread: "Quick Query No. 2" where Colin and Ken discuss the computing power required to analyse every possible tourney situation) and that we may start to see the results of soon.

I believe that a set of strategies or indices can be formulated to take account of many tournament situations. As well as my very basic initial TBS charts, I have put together some very specific charts for dealing with commonly occuring end-game situations. They are easy to memorise will add a few %age points to my edge (if indeed I have one ).

If you can't answer my post in detail can you at least explain to me why, when you are more likely (by 1.82%) to beat the dealer if you hit your 12 rather than stand when they have a 14 showing, that you should stand as BS dictates? I know that the EV for standing is better than hitting but is that an appropriate measure?

Cheers

Reachy

PS. What about "bloomers" then?

 

late night

Yes Ken you are right. I didn't mean to put 14, I meant 4, and you are right about me getting it backwards. Although my maths tells me that you should stand vs Dealer 6 on 6 deck, h17 but hit all 12s when it's S17.

Do you hit all 12s on a regular basis? What about 13's vs 2 and 3? What about 17 vs dealer A on 6 deck S17?

Other than those specifics does anything else I say have any value?

Anyway, my cocoa is ready, I'm off to bed. Had a hard run through the Quantocks with some friends today, lots of steep hills and my calves are aching like hell. One of my friends vomited at the side of the road it was so tough.

Cheers

Reachy

 

"Tournament" Basic Strategy

I like the term, Reachy.

I'm not sure that a TBS can be developed that will be applicable anywhere near 100% of the time, but without a doubt, there is a better strategy for playing your hands in tournaments than BS provides. For instance, many, if not all, of the BS DD plays actually reduce your chances of winning the hand. But, since you still win more often than lose, the chance of doubling your bet increases long term winnings. That's fine for live play, not necessarily the best choice at a 20 hand tournament table. Other factors such as your BR position and your opponents known/anticipated results on the current hand come into play. The same can be said for many of the split, hit, stand or surrender decisions as well.

I probably deviate from BS on 20-25% of the tournament hands I play, not counting the final hand Hail-Mary's. I let the circumstances dictate the close decisions.

 

TBS - don't waste your time

OK Reachy, here we go. I’ll try to give my assessment of Basic Strategy (BS) vs. TOURNAMENT BASIC STRATEGY (TBS). As for specific numbers/percentages, I’ll leave that to the math whizzes.

First off, I’m not shouting. Using capital letters is not shouting. It’s a normal way us humans use to emphasize something. If that’s too loud for you, just cover ¾ of your eyeballs. So let’s not hear any more about “shouting”. It’s getting old. OK?

As for your specific question, BS says to stand on a 12 against a 4. This is not a play to maximize one’s win rate, it is a play to minimize loss. This is a bad position to be in, so minimizing a loss results in your best overall EV.

Now for the meat. BS is the mathematically correct play to make in order to give one the best EV possible over an extended period of time. Getting the best EV means maximizing wins and minimizing losses. As it applies to BJ, BS varies by the number of decks, house rules, and the “count”. But in the end, its purpose is to generate the best EV for the player given the game being played.

When it comes to Tournament Blackjack (TBJ), BS must always be considered but one must deviate from BS as the circumstances demand and that’s where the skill factor comes into play when one is playing a tournament. Virtually all “advantage tournament players” know BS pretty well. When they play in a tournament, they subconsciously make their decisions partly on their BS knowledge. For example: One knows that BS says not to hit a 12 against a dealer 6 (you lose less this way) but if it is critical that one has to beat the dealer on this hand only, then hitting that 12 may be the best play. One evaluates one’s chances of succeeding in the tournament and if that chance is better than BS for a particular set of circumstances then BS is not used. My point is that you always know the best EV play based on BS and you make your decision to forego that best EV because of circumstances that exist at one particular moment in time. That particular circumstance may only occur only once in a thousand tables or tournaments but it is here now and must be dealt with. That is where the skill factor is all important – knowing when and how to deviate from BS.

Trying to come up with a TBS is, in my opinion, not possible. If we define a BS as a set of rules that cover every conceivable circumstance that can be encountered, then writing a TBS would have so many different scenarios that covering each one would require a book the size of the state of Texas. And we all know nothing is that big. You would need a TBS that covers every tournament rule possible: surrender, H17, S17, BJ pays 2:1, BJ pays 3:2. BJ pay 1:1, BJ pays 3:1, insurance, no insurance, min/max bets in relation to starting bankroll, etc. Also you must account for your playing position, if BR1, if BR2, who bets before you, who bets after you, if you are ahead/behind by ½ max bet or a full max bet or 2 full max bets, bankroll in relation to others, your bet in relation to others, must win situations, tie is OK, tie is OK if player before busted, etc., etc., etc. The list seems endless and so would the TBS. So the path we BJT players follow is to learn guidelines, principals if you will, that can be applied to a whole series of scenarios, and not a single rule to apply to each very unique circumstance.

Think about this for a minute. If a TBS were possible that could be easily memorized, everyone would do it and then everyone would play the same. The tournament would be reduced to 100% luck since everyone is playing the same. May as well just deal out the cards and the first ACE wins. Not much fun. All the work in developing a TBS would result in the demise of BJ tournaments. The kicker is that the person who developed TBS to enhance ones play with the object to make more money would actually kill the game so it would cease to exist.

Now, if I haven’t made myself perfectly clear then listen up. In my opinion, you are wasting your time trying to come up with a TOURNAMENT BASIC STRATEGY. The possibilities are just too huge to summarize on a piece of paper that can be memorized. The key to winning BJTs is to know and apply principals. Also, being able to “read” your opponent can be beneficial which can’t be summarized on a TBS chart.

In closing, let me say I didn’t shout. Maybe talked a little strong, but I didn’t shout. Also, I don’t have the time or inclination to debate this subject much further. I just wrote this because you asked my opinion. I have to go drill some holes now with my new power drill - with an 8 inch long bit. You know, I need some relaxation (I love those "operation" manuals, don't you?) after spending so much time on this response.

 

drilla killa

Agreed and I did mention this earlier. But is this not the crux of the argument? Is EV the best way to make a decision in a tournament? You have told me in the past that it isn't and I have studied this and I understand why this is true. And the hard fact is that hitting 12 vs dealer 4 has the greatest probability of success if your objective is to win or push. In other words your best chance of not losing in that specific situation is to hit the 12, the EV is worse but your chances of achieving your goal are greater.

That's what they said about BS before someone came up with it. You also say that there are too many variables to take account of. We shall see. Even if you can't formulate a complete strategy you should be able to formulate a better one. If you can add a few %age points to your edge isn't that worthwhile?

Do you not use Wong's/Ken's strategy table for when you win both ways (http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2544)? I would call that a TBS. It's easy to memorise and it gives you the best actions to take when you have the high and low over your opponent.

I'm sure I read somewhere on this forum that all cash BJ games would cease to exist if everybody played perfect basic strategy; the casinos just couldn't cover their costs if everybody cut the casino edge to the bone. Don't forget that most people don't play BS and the same would apply to TBS. I see the complexity of using a TBS as analogous to using a higher level counting system with full indices. Admittedly my experience of these is very, very limited, but I know that there a a good number of APs that use them. There would be a similar amount of tourney APs that would be able to utilise an advanced TBS with any success.

I have been jesting with you about the shouting and I thought, based on previous conversations we had on this topic, that you understood that. If I have upset or offended you in anyway I apologise, that was not my intention. The shouting thing is now officially dropped. I also hope that you don't stop debating this subject further since I think it is fundamental. Basic Strategy is seen as untouchable and it surely is in live play. Tournaments are a different matter. And if I can be allowed an "fgk moment", Newton's theories, when accepted, where considered the answer to many matters physical. There was simply no question that they were correct, or at least as near to correct as it was possible to be. The came Einstien....

Cheers

Reachy

 

I'm done

Reachy,

To repeat myself, I don't care to discuss this any further. Discussing something that I feel is not possible is not productive. Novel idea but it will not work. Besides, it's apparent to me that I cannot change your mind so what's the point. If others care to continue this line, that's fine - that's what this forum is about i.e. express you thoughts. However, it looks to me like you are nitpicking and groping for straws to support your argument. That being said, I would like to address one comment you made:

I don't think this is right. Basic Strategy still gives the house the edge if you exclude card counting. If everyone played perfect basic strategy the house would still have sizable wins because most have no clue about money management. Why do you think most casinos allow you to bring a basic strategy card to the table? And why do you think many casino actually have free lessons that teach basic strategy and give you a basic strategy card free to take with you. Many players would still use VOODOO BLACKJACK to size their bets and lose their ass in the process. And if some miracle of miracles happened and all players did the absolute right thing all the time, the casinos would more aggressively change the rules to give themselves a greater advantage.

Now I have to apologize to all members for talking about live blackjack. This forum is for tournaments but I had to get this point off my chest. I did that and now I'm done.

 

Betting Systems/Schemes gets my.....

My take on the whole subject is this: Betting and playing are symbiotic in nature and they complement each other. However, when push comes to shove, playing the cards is really not as critical as betting because in reality there are only a few hands where the outcome is critical. Sure lots of little mistakes playing the hand over time have a cumulative effect, but unless your card decisions are done with your eyes closed basic strategy (BS) should suffice. Exceptions to that are:
A. When max bets are in play
B. Elimination hands (EH)
C. Pre-EH hands
D. Heads up play

Other than hitting a 12 vs. anything, especially when minimum bets are in play is like comparing the differences in temperature in Florida between July and August – fun to discuss but does it really make a difference?

Betting, on the other hand, makes or breaks a player. In a tourney game like craps, betting is all the skill one needs as each person is betting on the same outcome. In TBJ each individual outcome is unique right? Yes and No. If the dealer gets BJ or busts than yes. However, if the dealer makes a hand and players are dealt different totals then no.

BS was designed with several factors in mind: an infinity deck, infinity playing, and finally you the player, versus the house. Using those parameters the BS tables were devised to find the most favorable outcomes and strategies. So when we play TBJ we should merely incorporate BS into our toolbox right?

Some will say yes, some will say no and others probably don’t care by now. My thoughts are currently in a state of flux due to my tinkering with the betting aspects and strategies. Let me give an example. Splitting 10’s versus a dealer bust card.

In BS we shouldn’t do this! Why? We actually hurt ourselves by reducing the EV with this move (check out this thread for a better explanation that I can provide – not as boring as me either (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4043)). In tourney play if we need the possibility of increased chips in exchange for a higher rate of ruin (ROR) then it MAY make sense – or does it?

What factors and when does it make sense to split 10? What are the major deciding factors? Bet size? Position (BR1 thru BRL), Table card count, what other players have done or may do, button position, EH approaching?

The questions and possibilities are endless and quite honestly mind boggling – as least for someone like myself. Therefore, to you, my friends and fellow TBJ players, help me out, put down your thoughts and give examples that we can discuss and learn.