It might seem like a nice place to be, but if I'm ahead by $200 or $300 on Global on hand 10 I have no idea what to do to protect my lead. Bet too much and I lose the lead. Don't bet enough and I lose the lead to someone's double or blackjack. It's easy to shoot for the moon with a max bet when you're behind and there seem to be lots of articles on this position, but I sure could use advice on maintaining (or expanding) a lead. I know draw of the cards will affect results but there have to be some general concepts. Thanks
Strategy General betting strategy is either to correlate (bet about what the others are betting) or contrarian (betting opposite of what others are doing). Contrarian usually works best when you either need to win a big bet to close the gap (you bet big while others bet small, hoping that you at least win your hand regardless of what others do), or you bet small when everyone else is betting big (here you hope the dealer makes a good hand and busts everyone out, you can afford to lose your small bet as long as everyone else loses their big bets). Generally when you have a lead you correlate more than bet contrarian. The logic is that in most cases most of the table will either win or lose together depending on whether the dealer busts or makes a hand. Betting contrarian when you have the lead gives the other players more of an opportunity to close the gap on you. The problem with correlating is that if you lose your hand while the others win their hand, you experience a swing, which is a double loss because the winner is able to close the gap more than if you had bet low and lost. To protect against swings, often you will see the leader bet slightly less than what the challenger is betting. If you figure the dealer wins a higher percentage of hands, it makes sense to bet slightly lower so if you both lose, the challenger's gap will increase by the difference in your bets. Of course the opposite happens too, if you both win, they gain slightly on you. Depending on how big the gap is and how big the bets are, you might want to risk a hand or two to go with a lower bet when someone is trying to catch you. If they lose a couple of big bets they may wind up busting out while you are best off maintaining your bankroll in case someone else at the table is getting lucky and closing in on you too. That's my two cents on it....I am sure others will have a much more precise analysis with statistics... Someone is bound to have stats on what precisely is the best bet to correlate with.
Fwiw I do pretty much what ptaylorcpa does. There are lots of factors to consider: Betting position on last hand - If you're first you need to bet more aggressively to maintain that lead into the last hand Are you acting ahead or behind those in pursuit - Make them think. Size of gap relative to max bet - The bigger the gap the smaller the bet. Correlate but less when you have a big lead. Number of opponents actively chasing you down - More in the chase the more likely at least 1 will catch and overtake you. Number of advancing/winning players - If betting to maintain the lead jeopardises your BRN position be careful I bet (although I'm not sure) that those who can count and do count in tourneys make decisions based on the count. I'm just learning AP so I'm not sure how it could be used but I suspect with high counts and your opponents making big bets you 've got to at least correlate. With negative counts you can maybe be a bit more circumspect. I know counting is considered of marginal benefit in tourneys and it'd be great if the experienced players would comment on this last point. I would say that with a lead after 10 hands you will be hard pressed to maintain it until the end mainly because you'll usually have several players gunning for you and it's highly likely you will get swung at some point. How many times have you seen BR1 got to BR5 in the last 5 hands? Enough to know that it's not a "safe" position! Cheers Reachy
Thanks for the advice. You're right about how everyone guns for you if you take the lead too soon. It's not like NASCAR or the Tour De France where you have a team who can help you hold off the pack. I'd even go so far as to say it's more fun to climb up the ladder than to try to stay on the perch. I only play the $5 tournaments for now until I have more confidence. Your advice helps shorten the day when I feel comfortable with higher stakes.
Holding off the pack Hey kirbyk What great timing. Floyd Landis test's positive for drugs after Tour De France. See latest news. Andy
Testing times Just wonder if drug testing will ever become a feature of Blackjack tournaments? If there are any performances enhancing drugs out there for Blackjack (herbal remedies only) can you let me know…lol Andy Ps sorry kirbyk for taking your thread off course
betting when in front i have tried many ways to stay in the lead.try betting double the opponents bet minus your lead.eastexaspro
Are You Sure If you have a 50 lead and your opponent bets 200 are you suggesting that you should bet 350 ? Which is double his bet less your lead Because if you do and he DD and wins you can only tie him for the lead with a straight win .Plus you would have given him the low with that big of a bet Why not bet 355 or higher which nows forces him to get 3 bets on the table if you were to win 1 bet. That is if you are set to give up the low which I would never do in a 2 player battle.Always take the low in a 2 player match up, it is the bet that will win more often in the long run Joep
So help me out here Joe So assuming BR1 (you) have 1000 and BR2 has 950. If BR2 bets 200 then I'm assuming that you (BR1) bet 200 also or maybe 199. The question I have is this: Same situation and scenario - hand 10 out of 15 (this thread I ASSUME is asking about betting non-last 2 hands) BR1 has to bet first. BR1 - 1000 BR2 - lets say has 750 100 min 1000 max What do you do as BR1 betting first?
Fwiw I'd probably bet 249 or whatever my lead minus a chip is. I'd also consider 499 because you have the surrender low if you want it. I like the 499 bet because it's 1/2 max so it gives BR2 a decision to make - high or low? They have to bet at least 750 to take the high by 1 and if you both lose you have a 1/2 max lead on them. If they go low they can bet up to 248 - if you both lose they lead by 1, if you both win you lead by 1/2 max. If it swings their way taking the high gives them a lead of a max bet, taking the low gives them a lead of 1/2 max so there is risk involved! I'm sure there are other formulas like Max Bet - 1/2 lead = 875 which will cover a max bet by BR2 but as they are unlikely to max bet at this stage I wouldn't do it! You have less than 1/3 of a max bet lead so it doesn't really amount to much of a gap. Acting first with a small lead and 5 hands to go you'll be lucky to stay ahead. I know you want the proper tourney players to give you their advice but I like to post when these sorts of questions are asked so that my replies can be critiqued. Hope you don't mind. Cheers Reachy
Don't mind at all, Reachy. Floating a strategy and getting feedback seems to be what this section is all about. Have decided to pay closer attention to my opponents in the future and see waht I can learn. Kirby
