QUESTION WHEN DO YOU STRAY AWAY FROM BS? SPLITTING 10S DOUBLE DOWNS DD ON 12 SPLITTINGS AA OR DD AA MY THINKING IS THE ONLY TIME YOU DO THESE THINGS IS WHEN YOU ARE LOSING AND NEED TO PUT MONEY ON THE TABLE CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG-ANY COMMENTS OR IDEAS MUCH NEEDED AND APPRECIATED
More money on the table You are half right. That half being "need to put (more) money on the table". You could be BR1 and facing a serious challenge from another player (not necessarily the final hand). In that case as long as a split or DD is not too "wild" you may consider it in an attempt to keep your status as BR1. There are many other situations that I can use as an example but I think you get the idea. Know the principals of why you should deviate from BS and you can apply the idea to situations as they arise. Others on this site may think different and that's OK. This is my thought on the subject. PS: Writing in all capital letters makes it hard to read.
My Thoughts Good response to Maxwell's question Toolman. I typically don't deviate from BS until the last hand or two in a traditional BJ tournament (online or B&M). The key word being typical. Of course there are exceptions and here's one that comes to mind. Hand 23 of 28- I'm BR1 and get that 11 to the dealers dreaded face card. BS says to doubledown. There are times when just hitting it will keep you as BR1 no matter the outcome of the hand where doubling might move you to BR2 or worse. This same situation being hand 3 of 28 I would DD and not worry about it that early in the game. There are many more exceptions but I love my BS. Now in elimination blackjack you have a "final" hand on hands 8, 16, 25, and 30. I still typically don't deviate from BS until each elimination hand or maybe the hand before each elimination. Of course again there's times where you have to do what you have to do to stay alive. Just my thoughts, thrasht
That ol' chestnut Semi-contentious area with no hard and fast rules Maxwell. What you need to be looking at is TSS or Tournament Situation Strategies. This is a bleeding-edge area of tournament blackjack research (very hush-hush ) and you may wish to start here - http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2963 or here - http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2544 for examples. Remember that BS gives you the best chance of losing the least amount of money over a long, long grind. But following BS doesn't always give you the best chance of winning any one hand which is more often than not the goal in TBJ. E.g. When you simply must win a hand and a push is as bad as a loss then you must stand on 16 vs dealer 10. In fact the only time you should hit that 16 is if the dealer shows a 7 (6 deck H17). And of course the end game often requires very non-BS manoeuvers and they are often hard to assess. Sometimes the only way to win is to DD that 19. Cheers Reachy
Don't overapply I have to disagree/clarify some of this. Seems to me you may be overapplying the "push is as bad as a loss" idea. During the early hands, I usually apply BS with rare exception because it gives me the best overall probability of holding unto my money. Therefore, the statement "In fact the only time you should hit that 16 is if the dealer shows a 7 (6 deck H17)" is not valid in my play in the early hands simply because in the early hands a push is OK. I do not have to win at that point The other statement I draw exception to is "But following BS doesn't always give you the best chance of winning any one hand which is more often than not the goal in TBJ" - in particular, the part that says "which is more often than not the goal in TBJ". In conservative play as I do, preservation of capital is most important in early hands. Therefore, BS is best for me in early hands as it does give me the best EV - I'm not necessarily looking for the best chance to win and again, a push is OK.
When I'm in bankroll preservation mode, i.e. minimum bets, I stick with basic strategy, except that I insure BJ's and surrender a pair of 8's against 9, 10, or A. When I'm in the last few hands before a drop or last hand, and my bets have increased, BS is out the window. That's because my objective is no longer bankroll preservation. I'm either playing catch-up, defending a lead, correlating opponent(s), building a lead, or throwing a hail-mary pass. My playing strategy takes opponents' hands into account in many cases. Your playing strategy derives from your objectives.
Lol I thought you'd like my post Toolman1 . All good clean fun you realise. I hoped I was careful to word my post - "When you simply must win a hand and a push is as bad as a loss then you must stand on 16 vs dealer 10". I was trying to imply that it wasn't necessarily a general rule to stand on 16s vs T but if you do have a 16 and you must win then you should stand on it except when the Dealer has a 7 and then you should hit. Those actions give you the best possibilty of winning that particular hand. And besides I haven't actually ruled TSS type actions out as a general rule at any point in the game either. I'm meditating on it as we speak. At what point are EV considerations outweighed by probability considerations and vice versa? The aim of my post was to give an example of why BS isn't (to my mind) always the path to follow at all stages of a game and maybe get some more discussion going on this favourite topic of mine. Other examples are that I DD much less in a tourney early on than in a cash game but do it much more later on if I need to. And there's more. One point you made that I'd like to address Toolman, is that BS gives you the best chance of holding onto you money early on. If that is your stated goal I would adopt a "push is as good as a win" approach and you are right, standing on 16 vs T is not the right thing to do; you should hit. However if you have a 13 vs dealer 2 you should hit rather than stand as BS dictates. Why? Because you lose your money 62.97% of the time if you hit vs 64.33% if you stand. Well that's my theory anyway. I don't know how valid it is but I'm putting it out there for general consumption, digestion and elimination... Cheers Reachy
I'm confused... Toolman, you posted: Conclusion 2: Hit 13 vs. 2 only if "a push is as bad as a loss". You can only push if you hit it, so did you mean hit 13 v 2 if "push is as good as a win"? Thanks, Rounder21
Good catch Rounder21. I deleted that post completely because it was based on a false assumption. I will be posting a new reply shortly.
EV vs Probability In my second post I did say that the approach I'd adopt was "Push as good as a win" (PAGW) rather than "Push as bad as a loss" (PABL). I was also posing a question about EV vs probability. I understand EV calculations and how they differ from straight up probability calculations and this is the crux of the matter as I see it. So lets look at both approaches... We will look at 10,000 hands with £1 bets as you did in your post. I have included the EV figures at the end since they give an idea about the profitabiltiy of the play and because the calculations that preceed them do not reflect how much money you would lose in either of these situations 13vs2 - Hit (PAGW) Win - 3208 hands Push - 495 hands Loss - 6297 hands Therefore 3208 x £2 + 495 x £1 = £6912 EV= -0.31 13vs2 - Stand (BS) Win - 3567 hands Loss - 6433 hands Therefore 3567 x £2 = £7134 EV= -0.29 This is just restating your results with the actual numbers and in fact makes your case stronger if we follow that train of thought. And be in no doubt, if I were playing a cash game this is what I would do. However they are both negative expectation, it's just a case of the lesser of two evils. But if we look at the numbers again we see that by standing you lose more often than if you hit. So what does that mean? Does it have any relevence in a tournament situation? I would say that it does. If we adopt a PAGW approach as we are likely to do earlier on in a game then pushing preserves BR and winning increases your BR and both of them achieve the goal of not losing money. So in 10,000 hands: 13vs2 - Hit (PAGW) BR preserved - 3703 hands BR decreased - 6297 hands 13vs2 - Stand (BS) BR preserved - 3567 hands BR decreased - 6433 hands So by adopting the PAGW approach it does take account of the push since it's seen as a "positive" outcome in as much as you don't lose any money. In fact you are 2.2% more likely to preserve your BR if you hit. OK they are small numbers but every little percentage point counts. Please remember that these are just some idea's that I'm pushing around and I have alot more work to do in this area. Cheers Reachy ADDENDUM: The post to which this post is responding has been removed by it's original author so if it makes no sense then you know why (apart from my outlandish theories of course ). I believe that Toolman is working on a modified response which will therefore come after this one so it will appear that I have mastered time travel or at least can read minds!!! And of course this post may well no longer be answering the questions posed in the original.
Reachy, You have me a little confused so before I comment any further I need a clarification. Are you saying "hit the 13 vs. 2" all the time in tournament play? Or are you saying "hit the 13 vs. 2" in live BJ instead of what Basic Strategy dictates? Or are you saying both? Or are you saying something else?
Not quite Only hit 13 vs 2 if a push is a good as a win. If a push is as bad as a loss then stand. I'm attaching a couple of charts, the first one is for when a push is as good as a win, the second for when a push is as bad as a loss, both are for 6 deck, H17, hard totals. I would say you are more likely to use the second one (PABL) later in the game or at critical points. The yellow boxes are where the strategies differ from BS. I would follow BS in a live game, with adjustments for the count of course . Cheers Reachy
OK. I seen now I was talking apples and you were talking oranges. Now I have no comment to make whatsoever. This is part of your TSS work and as you know, I'm not into that. GOOD LUCK on your continuing work. Now I can shout: BASIC STRATEGY IS ALIVE AND WELL AND REMAINS UNCHALLENGED BY REACHY
I love our chats! Hope you weren't losing any sleep over it though. What time is it now where you are? Cheers Reachy
I lost some sleep but not over this. I get these insomnia attacks every so often so what better way to pass the time than to chat with a friend. It's 4:14am here. I'll probably be up till about 5:00am to 6am then try for some more sleep. Only got about 2 1/2 hours so far.
insomnia Here's a few tips that may help your sleeplessness. Lavander essential oil on your pillow. Nice in a hot bath just before bed too. Swedish method: when you wake up in the middle of the night have a really cold shower then put on a really warm dressing gown and get back into bed. Because of the cold shower your body compensates by heating up really quickly. Hopefully that inner glow should send you off to sleep. It really works for me. Nice massage from the good lady Do you have Horlicks in the US? It's a malted milk drink. Read a manual or something else really boring. You must have something that came with a drill or jigsaw. Mind you that might get you excited!!! Night, night. Reachy
dressing gown REACHY I DO NOT THINK TOOLMAN WANTS TO VISUALIZE YOU IN A NIGHT GOWN-JUST THE THOUGHT SCARES ME DEATH
I had to giggle I just watched a wildcard game from the WSoB, I guess from last year. It had Ken Einiger, Micky Rosa, the delightful Erica Schonenberg and an ex-casino manager called Michelle. On the last hand Micky Rosa could have won the game if only he'd followed my* advice!!!! He had 16 vs dealer 10 and a push would have been as bad as a loss (PABL). BS says hit that 16, TSS says stand. He hit and bust with a 10. What did the dealer have? A 12 and that 10 that Micky took would have bust the dealer putting Micky into the final not Ken. Cheers Reachy *I am not claiming that standing on 16 vs T is my idea at all; people have been doing it since year dot. Nor am I claiming TSS as mine, but I do like to wave flags
Toolman If thinking about BS for days on end wont help you sleep try two Benadryl allergy pills the regular pink pills. Each is worth 4 hrs sleep. But be warned it is also a form of diuretic so be sure to have a clear path to the bathroom walking on Benadryl is like walking on a train. Or wear some depends! Dont tell the big pharmacies Im giving you this hint because they make big money off sleep aids. Benadryl is the best sleep aid and non addictive also your allergy problems are gone! :joker:
