Next to last hand, Min/Max 100/500, no surrender. (PS: But if surrender allowed?) Say I am BR1 - 1301 acting last on this hand and BR2 1000 chips - bet 300. 1st question - If I would be BR2 here, I would bet 302 - is this perfect bet ? 2nd question - As BR1, should I go for a 501 lead betting 500 or something else ? 3rd question - What should I bet as BR1 response if BR2 bet is 302 on this hand ?
If BR1 is skilled, then BR2 is in a very bad position here because, no matter what BR2 bets, BR1 can cover BR2's win and his blackjack. He can also bet large enough so as to cover BR2's potential double with a double of his own, if necessary. I think that a BR2 bet of 302 vs a skilled opponent would be extremely bad since BR1 could then bet to cover BR2's double with a single bet win and he could even cover BR2's possible 3-bet win with a double. If I were BR2 vs a skilled opponent, I think that I would fire out a rainbow bet totalling something near the max and hope that it confuses BR1 into not covering my double. That, of course assumes live play. If it were online, I would make a large bet of some odd number and hope that BR1 wastes his time trying to figure out the (non-existent) angle and ends up making the same mistake. If BR1 is unskilled or semi-skilled, then this could be a good chance to try Curt's Revenge (Wong). A bet of between 302 and 400 might prompt a small bet from BR1 which covers BR1's single bet win, but leaves him defenceless against his double. This is a tough one. With BR2's bet of 300, BR1 can cover his double with a single bet win and cover his 3-bet win with a double all without giving up his push by also betting 300. He would stand a very strong chance of going into the final with the lead. There is also a substantial chance that his lead would be at least 301 (more than 1/2 max) should he manage the same result as BR1. He can also gain a lock should he manage to swing BR2. With a bet of 500, BR1 gains the possibility of a max+ lead by winning his bet. The question is would BR1 give up too much in a possible bad swing? I think that I would make a bet of 300 as BR1 in this situation. This analysis would be even more complex than the other 2nd last hand scenarios we have analysed because in those examples, we had the cards for each player, which limited the number of possible scenarios to analyse for the final hand. Here each player has the potential for multi-bet wins and losses. Each of which would have to be considered. I think that a bet of 304 or more would be in order. It covers BR2's double with a single bet win and allows BR1 to cover BR2's 3-bet win with a double.
To question 2 - then a 266 bet reply by BR1 it may be as well considered - if both lose, then BR1 gains a 335 lead allowing him to bet 333 on the last hand. And to question 3 - then, I think a bet between 336 up to 352 should be as well considered, for the same purpose of gaining a 335 lead into the last hand ? PS for question 3: but a bet of 402 to gain a 401 lead betting 400 on the final hand, so that a 400 bet blackjack on the last hand be a near block for BR1 ?
The problem with a response of 266 is that it doesn't cover BR2's double. I think that it's too much to give up. Covering the the double is, in my opinion, BR1's first priority. Yes, these are good points. In my defence, I did say "304 or more" When I've determined the minimum amount I must bet, I usually then bet more, up to the point where I give something up, in order to automatically cover things like this, if possible.
