Usual sob story I'm afraid. Must be going through a downturn. Seems like I can't win a game at the moment. Can't hit any stiff without busting. If I make 20 the dealer makes 21. If the only way I can lose is with a swing, then I'm swung. Every time I make a move I lose, the table wins. Haven't had a snapper for 3 days. The dealer teases me at elimination hands: I lose my hand but survive the drop, leaving me with no bullets. Next hand all in. Lose. Should I have gone all in on the EH? Maybe. So unsophisticated though, no style. I want calculated strategy. If in doubt push it out they say. I wasn't in doubt. If I'd won I'd have been BR1. Oh well. Tomorrow's another day. Luck, variance, whatever you want to call it has to balance doesn't it? I can't bust those 12's everytime can I? It can't always be paint can it? Surely I've got a shed-load of naturals waiting for me next time. Get some big bets out and hit one. Or maybe I need to change my strategy. More aggressive. Less aggressive. Shoot for BR1 or 2 or bust out trying. Bet the minimum. Wong-style whatever that is. What's Ken's secret? Why is he so good. It's not money. The stats will start to work soon. It's not the end of the world. Goodnight a depressed Reachy
luck - variance - whatever Reachy, What you are experiencing is VARIANCE or maybe STANDARD DEVIATION or maybe LUCK - whatever. Your play is starting to sound like mine and several people I know. Some people think about changes in their strategies when these things happen but I don't. I figure eventually things will even out if I live long enough so I just keep plugging away. You asked way too many questions in one post for most any human to answer within 24 hours so I'll just address 3 of your questions: Answer: YES, but only if you live long enough! Answer: YES - Absolutely no doubt about it. Answer: Of course not, 1 out of 4 will be a 10.
Been there... ...that's for sure. I went through a phase about two months ago in which I, too, thought I was a born loser. That may still be the case (!), but I did find that the key for me was: Start and maintain statistics on your play. Then, when in doubt about your personal star alignment, pull them out and look at the patterns, the win rate stability, how you are doing vs. your historical win rate, etc. The larger your number of games recorded (sample size) the more you may be able to rely on its consoling advice... Just my thoughts--plus: Yesterday's results (and busted everythings) have no bearing on today's!
Stream of consciousness Thanks toolman, sabrejack, thanks for all you've said, and I do know it. I was just letting off (?) Yesterday I was predicting every bust, every swing, every dealer 21, it seemed that I couldn't achieve anything. I'm starting my records again today and I realise that is key. As they say, there are lies, damn lies and statitics... Cheers Reachy PS. Don't mean to be pedantic but on a minor technical point 4/13 cards will be a ten, which is closer to 1 in 3 (30.8%) than 1 in 4 (25%) . PPS. RKuczek - Now you know I don't believe in gods, singular or plural. I think I must have done something very bad in a previous life though...
I was referring to your statement that you were just getting "faces" when hitting a hard 12. Since there are 4 "10 value" cards and one of them is a 10 (the other 3 are faces), the chances of getting a 10 are 1 in 4 when talking about the "10 value cards".
I Know From Experiance That Sometimes You Just Simply Have To Take A Breack And Clear Your Brain And Recollect Your Attitude For The Cards To Come Your Way
Reachy Think of it this way - think of how much fun you must have had in your last life - to have earned so much bad karma for this one!
Negative thinking doesn't help Reachy, I empathize a lot with your situation. Personally, I'm just getting out of a two weeks slump and the same feelings, doubts, questioning my strategy came over me. Thinking to much about the melting BR instead of the game led to catastrophic results at the table when negativity and impatience set in. Bad attitude!! Well, I slowed downed for a few days to clear my mind and regroup. So far, nothing to write home about except that just coming back to basics and having a good attitude at the table seems to have stopped the bleeding.
Thread Starter Reachy: I bitched and moaned, similiarly some time back. Many a "NAME" including you responded with encourgement to continue. JOEP "bellyached" a short time back and was rewarded. I guess the squeaky wheel, gets greased. I haven't bellyached loudly enough yet. Yet, "OUR DAY WILL COME....." I guess. The one thing I've seen from the information on this site, mostly exampled by Ken Smith, is recognizing the opportunity and fronting that favorable opportunity enough times, with the proper knowledge, skill, talent and experience to take advantage of that favorable opportunity when it occurs. You don't have to be, and no one is 100 per cent. A JOEP 17 per cent is well.... but, how about 1 per cent at the right time. Salesmen go out everyday with rejection crushing their heads. Yeah, listen to me, the pot calling the kettle black. But.......
Time Off Taking some time off playing over the festive season. Will come back refreshed in 2007. Tanks for your reciprocated encouraging words. cheers Reachy
