Hello, I'm new to the forums and I've got a bit of a pressing question. I'm slated to play in the semi-finals of a "major" blackjack tournament coming up, the rules at this casino are 6deck, 6players to a table (Don't know how many tables will be at the semi-finals, but I'm going to assume 4), and 15hands played. Winning in the qualifying rounds was my first experience in a blackjack tournament, I beat everyone by playing very conservatively, betting small and letting the others bust out, it worked well but unfortunately it appears this strategy will not serve me in the semifinals. To win a place in the finals I'm told I must finish as one of the top 3 chip-leaders at the semis, this has me worried knowing I'll have to play very aggressively and not just count on the stupidity of the other players at my table to help me win...(in fact by the rules it sounds like I might not even have to "win" my table to qualify for the finals, so long as I'm in the top 3 chipleaders at the event) Which brings me to my question: I've been working on learning the KO-Rookie counting system this last week (employed with basic strategy of course) and I'm feeling pretty confident in it, I'm wondering if it'd be worth the effort to try and employ the KO system in the tournament? It feels like at only 15 hands the benefit would be very limited...does anyone else count cards in a tournament and can you offer any tips?
Counting Cards in tournaments You will get various opinions on this. However, in a scenario where only the top 3 chip totals advance to the finals, you do not have time to wait for a good deck to bet more money. You will likely have to win at least 10 or 11 hands to have a chance to be in the top 3. If you wait 5 or 6 hands for a really good bet opportunity you will run out of time. It may never get good and you could be placing your big bets out when the count is not good. Just my opinion.
You will find varying opinions on the value of counting in tournament play. You can find a few threads by searching for the keywords "counting" and "tournament". The main arguments against it are that, as you have mentioned, there are just not enough hands in a typical tournament round to make it effective. The advantage that comes from counting plays out over many thousands of hands. A second argument is that your odds of winning/losing/pushing a hand don't change much with the count. Most of the benefit comes due to an increased frequency of blackjacks. Those who do count during tournaments argue that it can't hurt and that, for some of them, it is so second nature that they find themselves doing it anyway. I do not fall into that category. I believe that my limited mental resources are much better used keeping track of more important things, like the bankrolls and tendencies of my opponents. In the case of the tournament you will be playing in, you should find out exactly what the advancing criteria is. 3 players is not typically enough to fill a final table. Perhaps they will be taking the top player from each table and also taking the top 3 non-advancing chip leaders for a total of 7 players? If this is the case, I would approach it like a normal elimination-style round at first, but would chase the table leader aggressively should I fall behind.
Even if there were more than just 15 hands in your round, counting is not an effective tool for sizing your bets in this situation. The optimal strategy now is very simple... 1) Develop a good estimate of what bankroll will be in the top 3 chip counts. 2) Make all-in or max bets starting on hand one until you reach that target, or bust out trying. The problem with trying to wait for a good count before betting the max is that you are wasting those first hands. The possibility that you will end up running out of hands is very real, even if you are max-betting from the first hand. A win/lose/win/lose/win/lose outcome happens often enough to make wasting any hands too expensive. Fire away from hand one, and hope for good cards. I address this situation with actual numbers showing how different strategies fare in my second e-book How to Win Even More Blackjack Tournaments. There are three chapters that are relevant: Chapter 21: Accumulation Blackjack Tournaments - Maximum Aggression Chapter 21: Accumulation Blackjack Tournaments - Setting Your Target Chapter 22: Accumulation Blackjack Tournaments - Final Targets The second book is available at http://deepnettech.com/estore/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=2&products_id=84 A package offer for both books is here: http://deepnettech.com/estore/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=2&products_id=85
Thanks for the advice guys, the thing about the rules is that it seems the casino themselves aren't even sure how it's going to play out. I've spent all of this week trying to get them to clarify this "top 3 chip-leaders" BS and haven't got a straight answer yet. The actual rules say "The top three chip-leaders from EACH semifinal will advance to the finals," so my question was, 'well what is "each" semifinal' (as there is only one semifinal)? Is that each table? Do you know how many tables there will be etc? Unfortunately, it appears I'll just have to find out when I get there. Hoping all I have to do is beat my table and not go for this top 3 garbage, I know I can win on strategy, aggression is more about luck and I don't like to count on such things hahah. One more thing I forgot to clarify earlier, our bankroll starts at $1500, min bet is $50, and there is NO max bet. I'll post a play-by-play and results in the coming days when this all wraps up. If I win I'll be taking home $8000 which is a lot for me at the moment, so I'm definitely set to do my best. (By the way Ken, your link alerted my Firewall with a malicious intrusion attempt, you may want to look into this as I'm sure I'm not the only one it's happened to)
I expect they just left out the word table, and you'll be playing a 3-advance table. Firewall warning? I don't know why that would be. I just loaded the pages over at Deepnet and don't see anything unusual in the source.
I really hope that's the case, then it should easy, however that just seems too easy, have you seen that before in a semifinal? I'm running Avast and that's what brought up the alert. If it helps I can tell you it alerted specifically on a suspicious plugin-container.exe (java? flash? not certain) within that page, however after checking again it appears to be gone now.
3 advance from semifinals is actually not unusual. However, don't be fooled into thinking it will be easy. Yes, if there are six players at the table, you're 50/50 just by not doing something dumb. Getting your success percentage substantially higher than 50% is tougher than you would think. I hate 3 advance tables because optimal strategy is quite complicated, and it feels so bad when you fail to advance! Use your previous conservative strategy, and hopefully you'll have one or two people who get into trouble early and make it easier. Odd. I'll send a message to the guy who maintains that site just in case. Thanks for the heads up.
Well, tournament's over, I made it to the final table and wound up in 4th place overall, payout just shy of $800. The semifinals were brutal, they did it in two sessions, half played in the first, the other half played in the second. Both sessions had 6 tables with 6 players at each and they took the top 3 chipleaders from each of the two sessions to fill a final table of 6. I ended up in the second semifinal session, so I walked around during the first to monitor chip-totals and gauge my target value, I ended up at $5750 in that round (starting bankroll of $1000) and came out in 2nd place. For the finals I think my brain was still stuck in aggression mode, had I played a tad more conservatively I probably could have won it, I busted out by the 10th hand there. Still, I'm happy with my showing for this being my first Blackjack tournament, hopefully this Casino makes it a monthly thing and I can go back to win the next!
Dopplehaken/card counting in tourneys You really can't go wrong with Ken S advice. generally he and everyone else in the know would tell you the extra burden of counting with everything else you need to be aware of in an elimination tourney doesn't add much to your results. However, I would add a small caveat, if you're a really good counter. Knowing the number of decks, the number of players and the number of hands in a round, (could) help you with counting. If you're going to finish a deck before the rounds are over you have maybe a advantage towards the end of the deck. But if the deck ends up unfavorable towards the end you've expended all that extra effort for nothing. A favorible deck may help you at the end, BUT the frequency of that happening is why it's such a long hard grind to to it at a REGULAR table. Better to play contrary and be within one maximum bet of leader, if you're not leader. If Counting is second nature. Great. Otherwise the strategeys Kenny lays out, or advice from Yama prove more powerful in the long run, even in the short run. One more S**** and giggles. The more you play. The better you SHOULD get. Just a long thought from a short shmooo.
