Please help with the following scenario. Last hand of a final table. Game is Double deck face down. Double any 2 cards. No double after split. dealer hits soft 17. min bet 10, max bet UNLIMITED. bet increment 5 final payouts are 1000, 500, 250, 200, 150, 100 (about). Bankrolls PLAYER 1 1420 PLAYER 2 475 PLAYER 3 1255 PLAYER 4 700 PLAYER 5 1010 PLAYER 6 775 I am player 1. I bet 550. A friend thinks I should have bet 1100 What's my best bet in this position. Can anyone back it up with statistics? PapaTreat (friend of Re-Buy Bob)
I love puzzles me!!! Before I make a comment I will say that I am lacking experience, have little knowledge and almost no statistical backup but I want to get in before the real pros and see whether I've got anything right. Humour me please. An 1100 bet would obviously cover an all in win by BR2 but leave you with a BR of 320. In that situation everybody else could have taken the low on you if they wanted so leaves you very vulnerable at that end. Your 550 bet gives you the ability to DD over a max bet win from BR2 and a BR of 870, 3rd low at that point. So with your bet of 550 BR2 would need to bet 720 to beat you with a single bet win leaving him with 535 and vulnerable to everybody else taking the low on him. BR3 would have to bet 965 leaving him 45. I suppose another option is to take the low. Bet 160 and hope the dealer wins. Or try a surrender trap of some kind, say somewhere between 175-325. I love this!! I've never played with unlimited bets before and I can see how much more complicated it makes things, especially betting first. I suppose the question is what do you think BR2, BR3 and to a lesser extent BR4 are going to do? BR4 can get past you with all-in bet inc. BJ. You could cover an all-in win from BR4 with any of the bets above. If you think that BR2 or 3 would go for broke I would bet your stake of 550 because it gives you the DD option but doesn't leave you really vulnerable at the low end, in fact you'll probably have the low if they bet aggressively after you. If they are more timid I would maybe have thought about the 325 bet becuae it allows surrender and DD options. At the end of the day though I haven't really got a clue (I hope I haven't wasted your time). All I know is that you are slightly more likely to lose against the dealer than win, and that applies to everyone else. I know smaller bets can seem "timid" and probably leave you less options but a 1100 bet would scare the hell out of me!!! Now for the experts..... Cheers Reachy
**** Betting first and with the "no max bet" you would want to cover a win-win with the second bankroll who bets after you. BR2 would have 2510 with a all-in win. So 2510-1420+5=1095 bet gives you 2515 with a win. So 1100 is a good bet, with 320 in reserve. Hopefully everyone else will keep less than you in reserve, so you can win the lose-lose situation too. Next, can you cover someone elses BJ by betting more? BR2 would have 3135 with an all-in BJ. BR3 all-in BJ would have 2525, so a bet of 1110 gives you 2530 with a win. Of course on the fly this would be a tough calculation. Betting at least 1110, but keeping some weird combo of chips in reserve would be my bet.
Tough Spot Mr.Popa Treat The position that you found yourself in is not a good one . It could have been a lot worse but then you would not be writing to us about it. Lets look at your 550 bet you started the hand with 1420 so the 550 bet will get you to 1970 and if you were to DD your total would then be 2520 which would lock everyone out from an all in bet win including BR 2 who would only be able to get to 2510. Not bad but it opens the door for you to drop in the standings if you were to bust your hand in front of them . Your position here is what hurts you since it's a face down game and you are not able to see their hands and gauge what their eventual out come will be or if they have true DD hands. Without the benefit of this information you should try to lock out as many players as you can betting first. You can achieve this by betting 135 which will lock out 3 players not including if players 4 or 6 catch a blackjack .You have to give up something and their blackjack is what you can give up. Your 135 bets locks up 3rd spot and now forces both BR 2 and BR 3 to win their hands if one of them lose you now have 2nd if both of them lose you have locked it all up . I would be interested to know what the eventual out come of this hand was Joep2
Joep2 - How does 135 lock out P6 (or P4 for that matter)? P6 can get 1550 (P4, 1400) will an all-in win so if you lose you could be BR4 or 5. Am I missunderstanding the term "lock"? Can you call a bet a lock-out bet if it locks out other players in a win-win situation but not necessarily if you lose? I would have thought the only lock out bet was 10 which would guarantee you 4th excluding BJs. Cheers Reachy - Student of the Game (Fresher)
135 Lock Out Mr Reachy when I said lock out with a 135 bet that would be with Br 1 winning his 135 bet . His 135 win gets him to a 1555 total which would beat BR 4 which is player 6 all in bet .This was about what should Br 1 bet assuming he is going to win his bet, and make his downside minimal if he lost his bet Joep2
1100 vs 1110 First I like to mention the fact, that there is big difference between 1100 and 1110. With max bet out PLAYER 5 can have 2525 if he hit BJ. By betting 1110 you'll win the table when you win (about 44%) and PLAYER 3 doesn't have a BJ (about 95%). That gives you about 42% to win if PLAYER 3 bet more than 850 and about 44% if he bet less than 850. So in worst case you have 1st prize..........42% x $1000 = $420 2nd prize...........2% x $ 500 = $ 10 (you win and PLAYER 3 has BJ) 6th prize..........48% x $ 100 = $ 48 (note that this is in worst case for you) average prize.....8% x $ 366 = $ 29 (you push) Total...................................$507. As you can see this number is way lower than your actual numbers can be ( for example when you lose it is less likely to get 6th place, or when you push that means dealer makes a hand and because you were BR1 more likely you get better than average prize). And $ 507 is still better than 2nd place prize. That means even if you could lock the 2nd (which is impossible) it is better to go for 1st by your win. This doesn't mean that it is always true. It is mainly depends of few factors (Bankrolls, Prize structure, etc.). After all by betting 1st and having more than 40% probability to win among 6 players you are in great shape.
Different Situation In this situation with prize money for all positions I believe it should be played different than if this were an earlier round and only 1 or 2 players advancing ,then you need to protect the high . But this situation is different You want to be able to make a bet that gives you the most outs If you were to make a large bet here you have only one side of the coin here and its a side were you are not a favorite to win your hand. With a 135 bet you have more outs and still a reasonable chance to win with many different ways of wining I find that sometimes I give the players behind me to much credit in making a good bet and then when they don't my bet becomes less then optimal I have seen on to many occasions players make their " Magic" bet of splitting their bankroll on the last hand. If BR 3 were to do this than a win win result between us leaves him short. Which then creates a heads up match between BR 1 and BR 2. BR 2 must win his hand to beat BR 1 and that I believe is a better position to put yourself into .BR 1 also has the lose push over BR 2 with the 135 bet Joep2
afraid of 4s Hey Bob, Sound like a move a guy I know (lets call him Mel) makes all the time... he'd bet the 550 and come back and double on anything or split if need be. Truly, why not go for it, bet the 1100 right off the get-go? Of course, I know this guy who lives in fear of 10-2's and quakes in the sight of a 4, he might bet the minimum and hope the dealer prevails - happens all the time. Let us know what you decided was the best course of action. I'll know what to look for next time I play you in a finals at the horse. See you around
