Ok I'm not very good at explaining this but I was leading for the final hand by a smallish amount and was last to bet. Both our chip amounts were more than twice the max bet and he bet max and so did I... now this is what happened.... Dealer shows a 10, Opponent (betting first) doubles his hand to get 17, I have 18 ..... what I did was I doubled my 18 (I bust) but did I do the right thing? I only had half his bet before I doubled (because he had doubled his) so he would have won if the dealer busted (23% chance I think). If I stood I would have won if dealer doesn't bust (77% chance). I only went to find the odds later so I only doubled because I must have calculated it in my head somehow. The double should have succeeded in making a hand 23% of the time (3/13) in which case I couldn't lose but if it didn't make a hand I would only lose for the same reason as before except for if the dealer makes 17 which is only 11% chance.... could someone work out if I did the right thing (in the end the dealer made a hand so I won).
Well my calculations make it 74% chance of winning if doubling my 18..... v 77% of standing on 18.... so I think I marginally did the wrong thing but could someone verify this?
I think you had a stand as you have calculated but doubled down if your opponent would had draw to 18 or if you had a hard 17 instead of hard 18.
A sim shows: double: 72.99%, stand: 77.07% Hard 17: double: 75.85%, stand: 77.07% Opponent doubled to 18: double: 63.98%, stand: 65.00%
Thank You Gronbog, so we had a ``Stand`` in each scenario ! (I`ll have to memorize that.) That`s why is so good to have a great tool like yours for analyse !
