Did I make the right bet?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by darklord, May 8, 2006.

  1. darklord

    darklord New Member

    min: 10, max: 500, surr allowed, dd after split

    7 players left on the table and its the final hand. I am the second chip leader trailed by $5 by the 1st chip leader and must bet first. After calculating players' bet and assuming that all players would bet big, I bet 275, with this bet I am able to lock out 5 players if there is a lose-lose or win-win situation except the 1st chip leader who lead me by $5 and also get to bet after me.

    Here is how it played out: The dealer showed a face card. All players did bet big as I thought except the 1st chip leader who matched my bet of $275. I caught a BlackJack which pays 2:1 and thought that I would make 1st place for certain, but the first chip leader actually double down on his 5 and caught a 6 making a total of 11. The dealer turn up a 6 under for a total of 16 and hit an 8 busted! The first chip leader won 1st by $5 leaving me in second place. Had I make a $500 bet, I would be 1st place. My question is: did I make the right bet? Should I bet $500 instead of $275?

    Here are the bankrolls of the 1st chip leader and me before the last hand:
    1st: $975
    2nd(me): $970
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2006
  2. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Do you remember the other players BRs? That would be useful information.

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  3. darklord

    darklord New Member

    I don't remember chip counts of all players now, but I don't think it is important because I already explained above why I bet $275. More clarification on my bet: The reason I bet $275 is because I look at 3rd chip leader's chip and assume that if he bets max which he did, then with my bet of $275, I would be able to lock him out and and the rest of the players (assuming that they all bet big too) if there is a lose-lose or win-win situation. I think the 3rd chip leader has like 725, for the rest of the players who have less money than the 3rd chip leaders, I don't remember their chip count. So here is it again:

    1st: $975
    2nd(me): $970
    3rd: $725

    I apologize for my my lengthly explanation since I don't rememeber all players' chip counts, but hopefully you guys have an idea of the situation.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2006
  4. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Wouldn't BR1 have matched your 500 bet and still beat you?
     
  5. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    You can relax about thinking you would have won if you bet $500, because like Reachy, I'm sure the leader would have matched your bet.

    Still, there is a better bet than $275 here. You can cover an all-in win by BR3 with a single bet by you, if you bet at least $485. BR3 can double up to get to $1450, and if you win $485 that takes you to $1455.

    $485 is a better bet than $500, because of the availability of surrender.
    If you surrender $485, your total drops to $727.50, which still beats a push by BR3. (Was that cutting it close or what?!)
     
  6. arlalik

    arlalik Member

    $500 bet and BJ pays 2 to 1

    Actually with 500 bet and BJ pays 2 to 1 you would have 1970 and BR1 could have only 1950 by using his whole bankroll.

    I am sorry Darklord you can't RELAX.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2006
  7. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    Nice catch

    Nice catch, arlalik.
     
  8. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Arlalik - you rock!

    I realise that this is splitting hairs but 495 would have done it - lol

    Cheers

    Reachy
     

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