I posted about my final hand at the WSOB qualifier at Choctaw casino in Durant, OK earlier this month, but I was told I may have made the wrong play, what do y'all think? The situation is: only one advance to the finals. *NOTE: The totals are a little different from what I originaly posted, (I got the hand breakdown from a friend who recorded it for me). In the semifinals I ended up with last bet on the final hand BR3 down $32,500. BR4 was out of it and bet $30,000 all in, BR1 then followed with a $25,000 bet, BR2 was within $4,000 of the leader and bet $50,000 after BR1 bet (didn't understand why, but let me finish). I follow with my own $50,000 bet knowing I need a swing or DD on the final hand. BR4 catches a stiff vs. the dealers 8, BR1 gets a hard 15, BR2 catches a soft 19, and I hit a BJ! Great except for BR2 making a max bet. That still put me $3,500 behinh him. BR4 busts, followed by BR1 having to DD on his hard 15, I am hoping BR2 will DD, but he stands on his soft 19 so I have to DD, I catch a 7 for 18, but I still have my "Power Chip" so knowing if I win I am in the finals I use it. The dealer flips a Queen for 18 and the dealer flips BR1's DD to show he busted. BR2 wins $50,000 with his soft 19 and I am waiting for the dealer to turn my second chance DD over and there it was ANOTHER DAMN 7! I pushed and came in 2nd with only one advancing. Now, here is my question? Should I have DD on my Blackjack (even with my power chip) or was my best play to just stand? I was told by (a very good player) standing was the better way to play the hand since I needed the dealer to make 19, 20, or 21 for me to win vs. needing the same results for the dealer hand plus me needing to hit a 8, 9, or 10 value card, (even with two chances). I never even second guessed my play until he mentioned it. What do y'all think?
If you stand than yes, you can only win with the dealer making 19 or better. Which is 22.74% If you DD, you can win with a dealer bust 24.47%, not to mention you getting an 8, 9 or face card (46%) and dealer having 19, 20 or 21. So just by sheer percentages I would have doubled down also. In retrospect it didn't make any difference!
Double, no doubt Standing - 26.74% Double - 57.68% Cheers Reachy PS. Just ran these off quickly, will double check later.
I agree with the responses so far, that doubling was clearly superior, and that's before you even factor in the Power Chip. This part about needing the same results for the dealer hand if you double is apparently the problem. That's not true at all. You need to win the double, that's all. A dealer bust guarantees you advance, and if you catch a good card on the double, you have many ways to win.
Not So Simple For TX's problem last hand, if BR2 is considered to be the opponent then DOUBLING is better than standing with the BJ. However if BR1 is considered as the opponent then STANDING is better than doubling. I don't know what the bank rolls were going into the last hand but assuming BR1 had 200,000 and then subtracting what the other players were behind (as given by TX) I come up with the following charts. Plyr..........BkRoll........................Bet................Cards............Action BR2..........196,000..................50,000...............A+8.............Stands TX...........167,500..............50,000+50,000.........A+J.............Doubles TX...........242,500.......................0.............Net effect of standing with BJ Dealer..............................................................8 Doubles......................57.73% chance to advance Stand with 3:2 BJ.........26.74% chance to advance Plyr..........BkRoll........................Bet.................Cards...........Action BR1..........200,000.............25,000+25,000...........K+5............Doubles TX...........167,500..............50,000+50,000..........A+J.............Doubles TX...........242,500....................................Net effect of standing with BJ Dealer...............................................................8 Doubles.....................60.77% chance to advance Stand with 3:2 BJ........73.94% chance to advance The above was calculated assuming infinite pack and no power chip. With power chip it "seems" that doubling "should" be even better. ...................................BlueLight
More Not So Simple If TX decides to stay with his doubled bet on 18 after receiving the 7, then his chance against BR2 and BR1 are as follows: Stay with 18 vs BR2's 18.........................37.33% to advance Stay with 18 vs BR1's double of hard 15.....62.21% to advance However if TX could have caught a 10 on the double down or after using the power chip then his chances soar. Catch a 10 vs BR2..............100.00% Catch a 10 vs BR1................99.47% When there are only 2 players involved with a hand there are only 3 results that have to be accounted for: (1) A wins, (2) B wins, (3) A & B end up tied. With 3 players things get messy, there are 13 different results: (1-6) A 1st, B 2nd, C 3rd...............this can be arranged into 6 different sequences (7-9) A 1st, B & C tie for 2nd..........3 different players can end up 1st (10-12) A & B tie for 1st, C last.......3 different players can end up last (13) All 3 players end up tied with the same amount of chips. The problem with 3 players will have to solved before the correct course of action for a player is known. ............................BlueLight
OK, I have 3 player results using BlueLight's bankroll numbers. BR2 has stood with 19. BR1 has doubled a hard 15, and the double is face down. If Rick (BR3) stands: BR1 advances 26.06% BR2 advances 49.72% Rick advances 24.22% If Rick doubles the blackjack: BR1 advances 17.44% BR2 advances 25.08% Rick advances 57.48%
Nice reply's Blue light... One correction though, is if I catch a 10 value card it is 100% I advance over BR1 & BR2. My $100,000 DD win or push assures me victory for the table. As I noted in my post, I never second guessed my play until after talking to my friend (again a Very good tournament player) who I respect a great deal. His reasoning behind his opinion to stand did make a lot of sence to me once he explained it fully. At first glance it seems like my DD play was a no brainer, exspecially with the "Power Chip" I was still holding, (The Power Chip gave me the option of checking my DD card and changing it out if necessary, it is an option offered in the WSOB). I don't feel bad in the least about the way I played the hand out, nor I'm I asking if I played the hand correctly. I just felt that this perticular situation was something I thought the members here would be interested in thinking about. As it ended up neither way would have helped me advance.
No, BlueLight is right. If you catch a 10, BR1 catches a 5, and the dealer makes 21, you do not advance. Oh, one more thing, like the other figures mentioned in this thread, my last post ignores the Power Chip.
Forgot about BR1 I must admit I forgot that we wouldn't have known that BR1 was out of it since his double was face down. My "at the table" decision would still have been to double as Rick though. Cheers Reachy
Too Complex For Math Breakdown At Table Nice job Ken, Bluelight, and Reachy. Breaking down a complex situation like this one after the fact is always educational. Studying situations in this way improves one's instincts, even if you can't do this kind of rigorous analysis in the heat of battle. Without having number laid out in front of me I would've assumed BR2 was the bigger threat and DD'd to cover him. The math here confirms that. Hoping to get a swing when I DD 11 and a leader DD's of 15 has got to be better than hoping a dealer 8 pushes or beats another leader's 19.
Numbers for the final hand... To make it easier I'll post the amounts for the remaining four players on the final hand. Last hand chip standings: BR4 has the button and I am BR3 betting lst. BR4....$ 30,000.............Bet......$30,000 BR1....$186,000.............Bet......$25,000 BR2....$182,000.............Bet......$50,000 BR3....$153,500.............Bet......$50,000 Again I couldn't believe BR2 bet so much ($25,500 would have been a much better bet, he could have won on a win/win with BR1 or still had surrender option to cut BR1). The cards for the final hand: BR4........K, 6 = 16 BR1........6, 9 = 15 BR2........8, A = soft 19 BR3........A, K = BJ Dealer 8 up Hand action: BR4 hits and busts BR1 DD's (card dealt down) BR2 stands BR3 DD, I use my power chip to chip my DD and decide if I want to change the DD card. I catch a 7 of spades for 18 so I figure I have a push so I change the card. *Knowing I only pick up $25,000 and down $28,500 I decide to DD and I still had my Power Chip so I had two chances to hit. The dealer flips a 10 for 18, BR1 catches a 10 to bust and lose $50,000 BR2 win's with his soft 19 and my 2nd DD is exposed to show another 7 of spades again and I push. As I posted it didn't matter how I played out the hand I wasn't going to beat BR2. Sometimes the cards just don't hit for you. Actually what killed me was BR2 not being a more seasoned player or he wouldn't have bet as much on the final hand. I guess it just goes back to the old saying "when in doubt, put it old".
What is BR2’s best bet? Tex, did you mean to say $29,500 would be a better bet for BR2 since it would give him 1st high and 2nd low? Actually that bet is still slightly vulnerable to BR3 since a BR3 push or any bet win would beat a BR2 loss (17%). So I wondered whether anybody has any other suggestions for other potentially better bets for BR2 other than $50K and $29.5K? I have a few thoughts of my own, $36K for example. Additional thoughts: $47K is also an option as well as the more obvious $20.5K Cheers Reachy
Don't forget surrender Really BR2's best bet would have been $40,000 so he could still surrender back against BR1 and cover BR3's DD. However my BJ would have force BR2 in to a DD. He wasn't able to cover BR3 everyway and still have the surrender option against BR1.
so many choices... Any bet from $36K to $41K does the same job and as you say anything over that gives up the surrender option over BR1. Of course what $47K to $50 do is cover a max bet BR3 BJ (assuming $50K is the max bet?) and a BJ by BR1. A smaller bet of $20.5K, gives you 1st low with the option to double to take high over single bet win from BR1 and single max bet win from BR3. Any others? Cheers Reachy PS. I realise this is all rather academic since whatever the bets BR2 wins but it's fun nevertheless
Just like most thread's My hand is long gone and I feel I played it well, but after hearing that standing may have been a better option for me I decide to post the situation and see what others thought about it. As you pointed out it is fun and give us something to think about...LOL Here something else to think about. Percentages for all may not be the same for you, just think about it? Lets say that your in the finals only twice out of the 1,000 times a situation comes up, who is to say that playing the highest percentage play is the right way for you to play your hand at that perticular time? That is why I came up with the saying "I'd rather win wrong, than lose right"! It is much better to go home a winner than going home a loser, but knowing you did the highest percentage play (at least I think so). Just ask yourself what you would rather go home with? 1) A $50,000 first place prize or 2) $1,500, but knowing you made the best possible play? Sometimes you just have to go against the odds, we see and read about it all the time. Hell if it is meant to be, you'll get picked by a wild card to the finals and win the whole thing. Don't try and tell me the luck factor isn't involved...LOL Before this gets out of hand, I do believe Skilled players do advance more often (as I always have), but just look at all the results posted on a regular basis and tell me Luck dosen't play a BIG factor on who win's?
$50K anytime... I'd take the money anytime but it would feel wrong ! I'd have to give some away to charity to rebalance my karma or something. All I was really trying to do with my posts was get some good old fashioned debate about plays. I always found that the most interesting aspect of TBJ and I think these sorts of discussions are often the most valuable because they deal with real world situations. Apart from yourself Tex nobody took the bait :sad: In someways I don't understand the question. What are you saying here, that we should follow our gut rather that the maths in critical situations? If you knew that Play A would give you a 60% chance of winning $50K and Play B would give you a 50% chance but your gut said go for Play B is that what you would do? I don't understand how one could identify a situation when it would be the right thing to go against probability. How do you decide? Cheers Reachy
