This hand cost me tens of thousands of dollars. Final hand of semi-final round of recent tournament. I am BR1 going into final hand and betting last. Only 2 of us left! I don't have enough to cover BR2's all in, so I bet just enough to cover his win and hold the rest back -- I've got the high and low, only way I lose is if BR2 wins the hand and I lose or push, or if he pushes and I lose. BR2 is dealt a 20, I get dealt 17, dealer gets an A. I am second to act. I guess I should have hit...? I think it is a classic push-is-as-good-as-a-loss situation, so I am guessing chart says hit. In any event, I stood -- but really the only way I win is if the dealer busts or makes 21. (She did not have BJ). Hit or stand? Surrender was not an option, and would not have helped anyway.
It depends. If the dealer stands on all 17s, you should hit. Hitting wins 28.89% of the time, while standing wins 24.43%. If the dealer hits soft 17, you should stand with your 17. Standing wins 29.64%, while hitting wins only 29.44%. Obviously these numbers are way too precise, and based on infinite decks. It's reasonable to just hit either way here. After all, the difference in an H17 games is only 0.2%
Thanks, Ken. I was 99% sure I made the wrong call here. It was a S17 game. Oh, and next card was a 3. Cost me final table with expected value of about $40k. Very, very stupid. I thought about hitting but really didn't do the analysis correctly in the 30 seconds or so I had to decide. It became much clearer once I realized the only way I won was dealer bust (18%?) or dealer 21. I was very afraid of busting then having the dealer bust, but clearly hitting was the way to go -- and would have been an absolutely brilliant play that put me in finals. Tournament was full of inexperienced players, was taking candy from a baby. Gold candy.
