The problem: Last hand to qualify for the $25k tourny on UltimateBet: I'm BR2 with 108.500 BR1 with 118.000 bets first 10.000 I bet 20.000 BR1 has 13 and stays. I have 15 with tje dealer showing an 8. I stood and the dealer turns 18 and I've lost.:flame: My question is how should I played this hand? Thanks!
? BR2? Are those numbers correct? Looks like you're BR1 with a 500 lead from what I see and correlation would be optimal. I'm asuuming either the figures are incorrect or I've just lost my mind. *edit* yep, I lost my mind I saw 108 for both...I'm a douche
I don't agree with your bet first off. When Br 1 bets their lead over you plus 500. Your bet of 20,000 does not cover a Br 1 blackjack or DD unless oh course you DD also. But that could mean having to DD on any hard hand you get, if they are dealt a BJ or DD in front of you. When Br 1 offers you the high take it totally away from them. Your bet did not do that. Now to the hand since Br 1 bet 10,000 of a 9,500 lead and stood on his stiff hand. If you were to push your hand you would win by 500 108,500 to 108,000 so when the push is good for you you should try to hit your hand to gain that also,so I believe standing was the wrong play in this case. You should have hit your hand to any hand from 18 and above and then stand. If you hit to 17 you have a problem but I don't believe you should hit the 17. I do not have the software to run that simulation but I'm sure someone will and let us know. My gut reaction is to stand on hard 17.I hope this helps you in future hands, I believe this is where you will learn the most, is through your mistakes and hashing them out here among some pretty good tournament players who once traveled down the road you are on now. Don't beat yourself up over this. we have all "Been There Done That"Joep
It's my day off! I always think these seemingly "run of the mill" teasers are worthy of closer inspection not least because we often think there is nothing more to them than what we see on the surface. Since we run into these situations often we can benefit from any lessons learned. And so it is with this teaser... I always like to check the probabilities because I have been surprised before. In this case, as it stands, BR2 should definitely have hit to at least 17. Hitting to 18 although better than standing gives a poorer outcome when compared to H17. BR2's prob of winning: Stand - 24.37% Hit once - 31.85% Hit to 17 - 32.27% Hit 18 - 31.44% I was also curious as to whether BR1 had done the right thing by standing since BS dictates that he should have hit that 13 against a dealer 8. Of course being the final hand of a tournament we know that BS goes out of the window more often than not so I thought I'd examine it more closely. This is a bit more difficult since BR1 acts first and his actions may in turn affect BR2's actions, so I had to examine all the potential outcomes. As things stand (BR1 and BR2 stand on stiffs) BR1s chances of success are 75.63%. However if BR2 where to play optimal strategy (i.e. BR2 hits to 17 if BR1 stands or hits a stiff, and hits to 18 if BR1 gets 17 or 18, and hits to 17 on BR1 19, 20, 21 or bust!) then BR1 should hit to at least 17. BR1s chances of success if BR2 optimal strategy: Stand - 67.73% Hit once - 69.42% Hit 17 - 69.55% If BR1 knows that BR2 will stand on any BR1 outcome, be it stand, hit to stiff, make a hand or bust, then it actually doesn't matter what BR1 does; the only way BR2 can win is if the dealer busts. My feeling is that BR2 will follow a suboptimal strategy if BR1 hits, something along the lines of only hitting if BR1 makes a hand and standing if BR1 busts or stiffs. If that's the case then BR1 should stand on his 13!!! BR1 chances of success if BR2 follows a suboptimal strategy: Stand - 75.63% Hit once - 74.3% Hit 17 - 74.2% So in summary the "right" thing for BR1 to do is to hit his 13 assuming BR2 plays his hand correctly. If BR2 plays it the most sub-optimally (other than deliberately busting out of course!) then BR1 should still hit. However if BR2 is likely to play it somewhere in the middle of the sub-optimal spectrum then BR1 should stand. Because the odds are so much in BR1s favour he has much more room to make mistakes. BR2, as Joep already stated, basically got both bet and action wrong. Sorry! It just goes to show that even in a game with such a mathematical bent it could all go out of the window if our opponents don't know the maths!!!!! Cheers Reachy
Good questions That depends on whether there are any secret bets left (I'm assuming not else it would have been mentioned) and what type of player BR2 is. If BR1 had bet a little bit more, say $11-12K then he may well have been able to pull off a surrender trap if BR2 took the low, but I don't think they would have gone for that. With 2 players left taking the low has the highest chance of success and the classic bet for BR1 would be 2X your lead minus a chip = $18.5K with the surrender back. If you don't fancy the surrender option then just bet $9K. The problem here is that BR1's lead isn't great and he's likely to have limited flexibility if BR2 decides to bet high to cover doubles, splits, BJ etc. Another way to approach this is to look at what BR2 might bet, or how they may react to different bets from BR1, and formulate a bet for BR1 based on that. The ideal scenario for BR1 is to get the high low but that will only be possible if BR1 has a secret bet left. To my mind the next best scenario is to have the low (or at least an option on the low) with the ability to retake the high if required. So how do we achieve that? Let's look at some potential bets from BR2. A common bet from BR2 in this situation would be to bet the difference plus a chip - $10K. That would allow you to bet $19K for the low, $38K for the surrender low or $28 for the surrender surrender low (i.e. your surrender beats BR2s surrender) all of which beat doubles and BJs from BR2. Another common bet from BR2 would be 2x the difference = 2 x 9.5K = $19K since this will take the high from BR1 if they decide to take the low; $23.5K would cover the BJ. BR1 could cover with $28K/$32.5K for the low; $54K/$65K for the surrender low; or $37K/$42K for the surrender surrender low. BR2 might also split his BR - $54K. You would then need to bet $45K to cover that for the high and $49.5K to cover the DD. The problem with all these "guessing games" is that BR2 gets to act after you and therefore they will formulate their bet around your bet. We must "guide" them to make a bet that gives you the best chance of success and the flexibility to adapt to the cards after they have come out; as I said previously I think that is to take the low with option to double for the high. Another likely bet would be max bet $100K. This is the bet I'd quite like him to take because in many ways that limits what he can do. My instinct, rightly or wrongly, tells me that BR2 will probably go for the high so if I bet around $50-55K then BR2 has to bet more than 1/2 his stack to do that. Hopefully he will think that since that won't allow him to split should he need to he may as well max bet; that will give him the high and me the low but I can cover his high with a double, plus I can surrender to force him to win or push. So my answer to "what bet should BR1 make" is - probably around $50ishK but I still reserve the right to bet $18.5K . To you second question: What should BR2 have bet after BR1s $10K bet? $50K. That way you cover BR1 getting 4X his initial bet out through doubles and splits without having to double yourself. In fact anything from $50-$100K would be good. I know there are plenty of other options and it'd be interesting the hear them. Any takers? Cheers Reachy
