This situation came up with my wife on her last hand and I wasn't sure what the right answer is. On last hand my wife is BR1 and on the puck. She bets the max and everyone follows with max bets, so she has the low. She draws a blackjack, but BR2 also draws a blackjack, and BR3 has a good double with the dealer showing a 3. Should she double her BJ? If she does, as BR2 would you double yours too? I think you would have to assume that BR3 will double and could pass both of them if they both stand on their hands.
Guess right? If she is BR1, has a bet max and hits blackjack I would stand assuming two players advance. If only one advance, then you have more to worry about as BR2 and BR3 will surly DD their hands. I just refuse to give up first high in that situation, make both of them beat you is the way I play. This is the classic Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda if you lose. If you DD and hit the ten you close the others out, but if you catch Ace - 5 you have to hope the dealer bust to win. Unless you guess right it will be a nightmare you live with and depending on the prize money how long the nightmare will last.
I agree this is a classic wcs problem. Unfortunately for her the dealer did bust as you probably guessed. BR2 got a five on his BJ, which would have been her card if she had doubled. I'm pretty sure BR3 would still have doubled his 10, but I am wondering if BR2 would have still doubled his BJ. Probably so seeing how BR3 could pass him with a good double to beat the dealer. I don't recall what BR3 got for his double. Seems to me this is a classic problem for the number crunchers. Would love to hear what the math says.
Just get to answer is it more or less likely TXt, You are an experienced player. I would say you are too good a player to rigidly stick to your old believes. You can analyze the situation and come up with correct decision. You don’t need to know the exact numbers, though it wouldn’t hurt, to make right assumptions and consequently better decisions. As BR1, in the case cited by Ptayorcpa, assume that you don’t advance if you lose your double on blackjack. Now, ask yourself these questions: Am I guaranteed to advance if I win my double on my blackjack? Will my opponent with a blackjack double if I don’t double? Will my other opponent with a total ten double if I don’t double? What is the chance of winning double on eleven (my blackjack) vs. dealer’s three? It is sufficient to just determine is more likely that that I win or that I lose. What is the chance that one or the other, or both opponents win their doubles? Once again, just bigger or smaller. Also, note that the last question applies to you asking yourself do I have more or less chances to advance if I take my blackjack. So…
Thanks Yama, When you put it the way you did, it sounds like there was no doubt what she should have done.... Now if I could just learn to think like that in 10 seconds or less....
When Yama talks If Yama say's DD was the highest percentage play then you can take it to the bank. Yama knows the percentages better then anyone. I posted that I would have stayed on the BJ if two advanced, I still think I would go that route, but if only one advanced I probally would DD. Like you said 10 - 30 seconds doesn't give you a lot of time to decide your play. Two months ago I lost by not DD on a BJ on the last hand in the quarterfinals of the Hilton MD III. I was first to act and was BR3 at the time, BR1 under bet and couldn't catch me even with a DD. BR2 had a hard 14 and BR5 had 8 all vs. dealers 3. I stayed they DD and both won when the dealer busted. To make it worst had I DD I would have gotten a 10. Even after that, I would still play it the same way next time around.
To Ptaylorcpa Just ran across your Q "should your wife DD her BJ " Are you still open for a REAL answer.
Always open to new discussion Ok, Ghost, let's hear what your thoughts are. Having two more months of experience since my original post, I think I would have doubled. It is obvious that BR 3 will double, so my wife's decision to double or not is irrelevent to BR2, BR2 is going to double to have any shot at a win. That means unless either BR2 or BR3 catches a swing by beating a dealer hand while my wife losses, she has a lock on winning. I like those odds much better than the odds of the outcome if she stands.
BR2's position I believe BR2 was second after my wife who was BR1 and on the button. BR3 was last, but must have had a 10 or 11. It is obvious that BR3 will double regardless of what the others do. That is the only way BR3 has a chance to pull off a win. At the time this was one of the first tournaments either of us had played at, so we didn't know that BR3 would probably have doubled his hand regardless of the consequences since it was the only way to have a chance to advance. Obviously the same held true for BR2. The only chance he had to advance was to double his blackjack once my wife stood on hers. Had she taken the card which turned out to be a 5 which would have given her a 16 I think BR2 would have had to make a tough choice. The only way BR2 could lose by standing is if BR3 can beat the dealer's hand with his double or if the dealer busts. I am not sure of the math, but I would think it would favor BR2 standing. If both BR1 and BR2 doubled, then it changed the odds for BR3 too. Depending on what BR2 got, it might actually have been better for BR3 just to hit out to a higher count and hope for a swing. With both BR1 and BR2 doubled, BR3's double would not do anything for him. The situation was in constant flux for the two minutes this hand took to play out. That is what makes tournament blackjack so challenging.
