Heads up tournament last weekend, 17th hand of out 20. (Early round of a $300k tournament). I am betting first on last hand and my opponent is fairly competent, so I need to get a lead before hand 20. However I just ran into some bad luck and now sitting with 10500 chips vs. my opponent has 14000. I bet the amount of his lead, 3500, to close the gap. He bets minimum (500). I get dealt 11 vs. a 7. He has a 13. I immediately go to double but here's my concern: 1) Doubling substantially weakens the likelihood of winning the hand -- since the Dealer has a 7 I very much want to hit hands of 12-16 to improve my odds 2) I've alread bet the gap, and have good potential for a swing here also because of the stronger hand 3) If I lose one bet, I am very much in it -- can still bet it all on next hand to match his total, but if I lose a double I am pretty much dead In any event, I decide to double -- 11 vs. a 7 is a such a strong double hand and a winning double bet puts me in a very nice position. Of course, I get a 2 and lose the hand. Thoughts? Should I have just hit (ex ante, of course, ignore the actual result with 20-20 hindsight)?
The first thing I'd do is thank my opponent for opening the door so nicely. I'm assuming a 500 increment rule here (100 increments makes it even more interesting). I'd DD for 1500. A full DD doesn't gain that much on the high side, and a loss leaves me with enough to make a run back at him in the last 3 hands. 1500 leaves me with the high even if we both win our doubles. In such a situation, you're hoping for a chance to blow past your opponent when he's got no recourse. This looks like the golden opportunity.
hit-double This is an interesting situation that presents itself quite frequently in tournament play, double and lose and you are hanging by a thread, hit and lose, not as bad but is still a substantial amount to make-up with only three hands remaining. I can't tell if you must bet 1st on this hand (if so you should have last bet on hand 20) or after your opponent. If betting 1st, I would double for the full amount, hoping to take a 3500-4000 lead. Losing 3500 places you 7000 behind and your bankroll for hand 18 is only 7000. It becomes a must win bet on either hand. If I bet after my opponent, I would hit only if he busts (giving me a 500 lead if I win) otherwise I would double for 1500 and hope to swing on a win-win scenario. Better heads and thorough players would probably play this differently, but I wanted to toss in my 2 cents. good luck
