Someboooody! Splain sumpin to me. LUCY!!!! Did WONG, whom I've NEVER read, suggest somewhere it was a wise, good move to double a 12, or 13, or 14. Not when YOU had to. But just for S& Giggles. Or Did Helmuth upon becoming a BJ expert pronounce to his poker followers that it was an advantage play? Now, for all does dat does it in all deez tourneys and it succeedes. Good for You! But, damn, it's like takin a can a spray paint to the Mona Lisa. Anybody have a thought on this, or am I again missing something?
Always doubling 12 - can't be serious To the best of my recollection, Wong never said to double 12, 13, 14 under ordinary circumstances. Sure doubling 12, or so, when you need to get more money on the table, that's implied. Who would you rather trust for BJ advice, Wong or Helmuth? I'll go with ... . I'm surprised you never read Wong's book! Don't like the guy? Don't trust him? Not enough time? Or whatever?
Toolman1: & doubling stiffs: The main thrust of the question was out of frustration from seeing so many on bet21, UBT, Playubt doing just that within the first 8 hands. And miraculously "making it." I guess in the totality it's no different than the all- ins on the first hands. As far as Wongy. When I first got interested in tourneys, his was THE name that leapt up. I went full throttle to his site and publications through PI Yee. But shortly after substantial investments in his ventures, I found more useful, clearer, more informative information elsewhere at a fraction or no cost. I hold a guarded respect for the man, his status and past accomplishments. There can be no denying "what was." But partially out of an inability to grasp even simple equations as "proof." A lazyness to "show my work" step, by step, when, excuse me, I know the answer and the exorbitant fees and ventures into the realms of the mystical, from a numbers guy, well, you know, it all don't add up in my favor. To leap forward over all that has been written about BJ and tourney BJ, if one reads; "Bringing Down The House;" what Johhny C(a 20-year memeber of the MIT team and an interviewee in the first edition of BJ ALL-IN Magazine) has to say about THE TEAM or individual play; what MIT Mike says in interviews about THE TEAM experience;(oh there's more) but also between the lines and through the formulas and statistics of what Grosjean is saying, one should find that both table and tournament play ain't as complicated as a lot of "Money Makers" would like it to sound. You does want you basically need to do and hope that that particular day, you are in the high end of the array. Since I carried on way too long I may ps if I find I haven't answered all your questions.
v interesting This question, as well as some others that have come up recently (standing on 15 vs T) and my own personal wonderings about doubling 11's have led me to "research" this area further. And by this area I mean basic strategy especially as it relates to tournaments. I will be posting on this further at a later date (I can hear breaths being baited ) but lets just say for now that I am experimenting with some modified basic strategy tables during the end game :laugh: I have always taken BS for granted, never really looked into it too deeply, so I decided to see if I could come up with it myself, from first principles if you like and so far so good. But of course it's based on EV and as I now know that doesn't always help in tournament decision making. So.... Cheers Reachy
who? Have I played against/with you at either of the above mentioned sites noman? I know I have played you at global but of course you go under a different moniker there. What appellation do you play under at the UBT franchised sites? Cheers Reachy/Reachy21/Reachy16/Reachy15
Purdey!! Here I sit, yet again in my soiled underwear. Too cold and rainy to trim trees. Or rake the yard. Don't leaves in the wild disenegrate into nutrients for the earth? Could dust, or wash the dishes. Or watch American football. Take a nap. Oh there are so many options. Please post your findings. For, to me, you have hit on a relevant, almost tabo point when you bring up EV. For the introduction of EV into all previous basic, basic strategy discussions, considerations is what has muddled many a discussion. Unless you are a bot, engaged 24/7. To reach the desired end when considering EV is what calls attention to a "quality" player at a table. For a casual, less than PRO(what do you think, there's maybe 100 out there) shooting for less than 100 per cent EV, or blasphemy! disgregarding it all together, just may serve most players better. After all, the bar has been set at infinity.
Frustration, Frustration, Frustration Now I understand the reason for your original question. You had me going - I thought you were serious. I also understand your frustration. Played in a "live" tournament a few months back where this lady kept doubling on 13, 14, and sometimes 15 against dealer 's 9 and 10. She never busted doing this and won just about every double down. Couple that with the fact that she was betting big and you have a scenario hard to beat. I couldn't quite catch her but I did come in BR2 but only one advanced from the table. I took satisfaction, as should you in this type of situation, in watching her bust out in the next round. Keep in mind that these type of players seldom get far because that degree of luck just doesn't last long. Keep playing your normal game, as frustrating as it may be, and the probabilities will work out eventually. May take a decade or 2 or 3, but it will work out. Take care now and GOOD LUCK.
doubling; less is more! Although not fully tested "Reachy's Tournament Basic Strategy" is likely to advocate less doubling rather than more, certainly in the early and mid game. Doubling stiffs as a rule is fantastic as far as I'm concerned so long as it's my opponents and not me doing the doubling! Cheers Reachy
Barney: I once was in a city I was unfamiliar with. I had to get to an address on 6th Street. I stopped at a convenience store and asked a number of people, clerks, shoppers if anyone could tell me how to get to 6th street from that location. The answer, agreed by all ,was that 6th street was next to 7th street.
Let me see if I can make sense out of it... First of all I believe it was Toolman who posted that doubling on a 12 is fine when you have to get more chips in play! However at UBT, UB/Bet21 so many of the players just DD to DD, they split because they have a pair, and hit bust hands vs. the dealers bust hands. They don't know any better and frankly don't care. To them it is a free shot at winning a trip and or some money. Is it UBT/Bet21 fault that these players are betting so crazy? No! Just stop and think about when we get a player like this on a land base event, we are licking our chops to have a player like this on our table. I think it falls under bad advice given about BJ tournament to new players from another players before playing in a BJ tournament for the first time. They are given such priceless advice as "Try and get as many chips into play as possible" without understanding when that is and my all time favorite "Always split face cards in tournament play", and yet another classic "Taking or even not taking cards when you shouldn't to try and change the out come of the cards". As I pointed out earlier (agreeing with Toolman) their are times when DD on 12 (or above), spliting face cards are the correct play, and I'm not sure hitting a bust hand or standing on 11 or less to change the outcome is ever a good play, I think that is more of a mind game and only then in certain situations. Now I have DD on hard 12 a few times in major tournaments with great success, however it is not a situation I enjoy being in. I can think of twice I DD hard 12, once to win a major tournament and another was on TV to take the lead over Anthony Curtis and make the finals on the WSOB. What was made the later play so ironic was with only three hands left to play, I was BR3 (top 2 advanced to the finals). I was dealt and 11 vs. the dealers 9, I had made a bigger bet, I didn't DD! Why? Two reasons, one I had next to the last bet on the last hand and two, if I DD and lost it would drop me to far out to come back with only two hands left. As it worked out, I made the correct call just hitting twice to an 18, only to lose to the dealers 19. Now it was down to two hands left, I come back with a half my bankroll bet and catch the hard 12 vs. dealers face, and to make things better AC catches a BJ, (O'boy). Now I had to make a move, why because even if I win my straight bet I'll be down to much to AC on the last hand, so I DD, but not for the full amount. Victor N. was still on the table with a few chips in BR4, I didn't want to drop from BR3 so I DD for less to keep my lead over Victor (it was worth an extra $1,000 to $1,500). I sat there with my DD (face down) for almost an hour (not really, just seemed that long...lol), finally the dealer flipped her card and had to hit, she busted! I was happy, but didn't get excited because I knew I may have already busted. The dealer flipped my card exposing a small card, I won the hand, now I was BR2 and betting behind AC on the last hand. So you can see that the situation dictates how a hand should be played!
Sneaky peak If you must win vs. the dealer (i.e. push is no good) then (if my maths is correct - someone please confirm) you are better off hitting 12 against a dealer 4 than standing. Hit: 40.1% Stand: 39.58% It's not much but then quite a lot of BS decisions are seperated by fractions of a %. If you just want to avoid losing (i.e. push is OK) then hitting ALL 12s is better than standing. Also keep in mind that BS is based on EV, these calculations are based of the %probabilty of an event occuring. Cheers Reachy PS. 6 Deck, S17. Would appreciate it if someone could check the figures above. Cheers.
Something's wrong here Reachy. Part of the value of hitting is the push. With the push worth nothing, you should stand with 12v4.
infinite deck! I thought I might come unstuck on the infinite deck calculations for hitting to 17+. This is how I figured it: 0.1035*(39.58%)+0.1114*(39.58%+13.06%)+0.12*(39.58%+13.06%+12.41%)+0.1292*(39.58%+13.06%+12.41%+12.13%)+0.1392*(39.58%+13.06%+12.41%+12.13%+11.64%)=40.10% 0.1035 = probability of hitting 17 from 12 in 1 or more attempts 0.1114 = a/a to 18 0.12 = a/a to 19 0.1292 = a/a to 20 0.1392 = a/a to 21 The figures in the brackets are dealer outcomes for an upcard of 4. Where I have I made the mistake? Many thanks in advance. Cheers Reachy
Blackjack Probabilities Are you adding the percentages to sum the probability of each dealer outcome, then multiplying it by the player outcome that leads to a win? How are your infinite deck numbers derived? I think your probability of hitting to any pat hand would be the same for all pat hands, 17 through 21. That's because each pat hand has its own non-ten-valued card that completes it from any given stiff hand. You may have to hit more than once, but it takes a non-ten-valued card to complete the pat hand. The probabilities of getting each of these non-ten-valued cards are the same. Do your numbers for hitting to each pat hand include hitting hands higher than 16 if you have to hit more than once? If a push is as bad as a loss you don't hit 12, even against dealer 2 or 3. BS says to hit 12 against 2 or 3 because of the benefits of a push for your EV more than offset the risk of a bust. If a push is as bad as a loss you don't get the benefits of that tradeoff.
Many thanks Monkey This is just what I was looking for. I knew something wasn't right with my calculations and you've put me straight. I can now see the error of my ways! I was sort of working to it anyway but it would have taken me a lot longer to get there without your intervention. Cheers for that. Right back to the drawing board... Cheers Reachy
You're Welcome Excellent. Now can you change clothes? At least put on a sweater or something! :laugh: :yikes: :vomit: :cry:
