The Edgewater down in Laughlin has an "Elvis Tribute" BJ tourney wednesday nights and friday afternoons. Mark "Elvis" Davis runs a good tourney too! Sign-up at the west end of the cage anytime, intital buy-in is $15 and $10 rebuys. Three preliminary rounds, two advance to semis. One advance to finals, one wild card into finals of seven. First is $700 of the $1500 prize fund. You get a buffet (good for a week) on wednesdays and a 2/1 seafood buffet coupon on fridays. Rules are single deck, double any two, no das, no surrender. $600 in chips (dealer tip of $1 gets you the extra $100, everyone does it), BJ pays 2/1, $5-500 bet, twenty hands. ******* My 5pm prelim: I bet $10 flat for first twelve hands. Dealer lost more than won. Others betting 50-200, so I was behind. Good news was two others already gone with the high bets. Bad news was the projected last hand, eight hands to go with five at table put me second to bet. My $620 put me two max bets behind the leaders. Started to bet 1/7th then 1/3rd of bankroll, several pushes and an extra loss. One player is just hanging on, betting minimums. He sure could help me by busting out at the right time, which could improve my position at the last hand. Hand 18, all in, get a push. Hand 19, I go all-in with my $320, pull the Blackjack for the $640 win. I can pay attention again. Last Hand they stop play and do a chip count. Order of play- 1 1000 2 (me) 960 3 1200 4 2700 5 50 two advance. #4 is a lock and #5 should have busted out hands ago. Bet Result 1 1000 500, stand 2 960 125, stand 3 1200 500, stand Dealer shows a 5. My 15 does not look too good. Dealer hits for a 17. My 15 has a chance. We all are stiff and lose, but I advance. ***** Analysis anyone?
Being given second low was a nice gift horse here, and you advanced because of it. If player 3 had bet 360, holding back 840 to your unbet 835, you would have had a tougher time of it. But hey, what are ya gonna do? You can improve your bet a little though. You can afford to bet a little more, and you should, to beat a possible push by player 3's 1200. If you bet at least 245, it gives you one additional way to advance if you win while he pushes. If player 3 is likely to still bet the max, you'll still have second low, with 715 unbet to his 700. If for some reason you think he's more likely to notice that and hold back 720, then an even smaller bet than you decided on would be appropriate. Imagine if you bet only $50. Player 3 would have to decide whether to give you second low or player 1 second high. (Remember 2700 has a lock on 1st high and 1st low.) Bottom line: I like the $50 bet if you're playing very savvy players. But most of the time, if you think there's any chance at all of player 3 betting the max regardless of what you bet (like he did!), bet $245. Of course, coming up with all this at the table is tough. $125 gave you a good shot. It was worlds better than what many players would have bet in your seat, $500.
I agree with Ken's answer about betting more to increase your odds, betting second and getting to see what player #1 has and bet on the last hand I would have bet $455. This leaves $5 more then player #1 if you both lose and you can double to get a $910 win for a total of $1,870 even if player #1 wins their $500 bet to go to $1,500. That takes care of player #1, now for player #3. Since they have $1,200 I would have thought they would have only bet $305 to cover players #1 bet, but $500 bet was even better for you since now you could win with a push and player #1 and #3 loss. Even if they win the last hand they will now have a total of $1,700. With your $455 bet you can still catch them with a double down to give you $1,870. You can't and shouldn't worry about players #1 or #3 splitting, doubling down, or hitting a blackjack, if they do they do and they're is nothing you can do about it. A fast simple rule to cover on the last hand is keep $5 more back then all players betting in front of you, then bet the rest up to the max bet, this will also give you the option for a double down if needed. NOTE: this is advice for this situation; strategy varies depending on your position (money wise), betting position, and the other player’s bets. Always give yourself the highest possible chance to win. Like Yogi Bera said "It ain't over till it's over".
Thanks Ken and TX. Shouldn't #3 have bet small and been first low and have a 48%+ chance to win? My experience is on the bottom of the learning curve, 4th mini, but when players get rid of their green and reds early I figure they won't bet anything but blacks and are novices. I thought #3 would bet the max with a slim chance of betting $100. I bet with green and red so #3 wouldn't mimick my bet. ******* Ok, on to the semi-final, one advances. Once again I was way behind betting $10. A couple of moderate bets got me to the final hand. Betting position is better but the chip leader bets after me. One advances- bet position bankroll bet cards play 1 1000 500 5,7 double 500 2 200 200 ? 3 825 500 10,8 stand 4 (me) 870 500 4,5 double 370 5 1600 75 7,5 double 75 Dealer shows a 10. #1 busts I get my Ace for 20. Chip leader gets a three for 15. Dealer turns over a Jack. A push for me. That was a three second roller coaster ride. ***** So once #3 didn't double (why not?), I guess #5 made the right play against me. It looks like #5 knows her stuff. Could she have made a better bet in the anchor position?
First, from the prior example, on your comment about #3 taking the low for a 48% chance. That's not quite true because you can also overtake him with a double down. That reduces the 48% a little. --------------- Now, on to the new situation: Why did #3 not double? Obviously tournament inexperience. By standing they have no shot. Player 5's bet should have been larger, so she wouldn't have to double to cover your double-down win. She was fortunate that she didn't have a hard 18 or hard 19 that hand. Had she bet the $150 to begin with, it wouldn't have been an issue. In fact, I like a big enough bet to cover #1's all-in win. In seat 5, a bet of $405 covers everything, and she still has the low covered as well, with $1095 unbet. That way, if she wins the hand she's unbeatable, but she also wins if the dealer beats the entire table. That's a strong spot to be in. That was a close one, you almost pulled off the victory there.
Man...that is a real rollercoaster of emotions. That is what makes tournaments so fun and stressful. I agree with Ken, chip leader definitely should have bet $405 to cover all-in by you and first player. I think I would rather bet half your bankroll so that you can split if necessary. Based on leader's bankroll, no real difference between betting $500 and $385 if you pull a natural. In one of my first tournaments, I made that mistake and learned the hard way when I was $25 short to split my aces on final hand.
1 1000 500 3 825 500 4 (me) 870 500 5 1600 75 Could she have made a better bet in the anchor position? Is it “Small Bet” of $75 (which player #5 actually chose) or is it “Big Bet” of $405 to $500? Let’s consider the two above-mentioned bets. We could try to compare differences between the two bets by looking at what’s gained and what’s lost. However, it would be rather complicated and difficult to remember all aspects and implications and we may end up comparing apples and oranges. As usual, it is best to try to figure out the total chances of success for each decision or at least shoot for best approximation. Player #5’s small bet protects her against full swing (one loses while the other wins) to P1 but makes her vulnerable to P1 winning doubled bet. If Player 1 has any tournament playing experience then she or he should realize that the only chance to advance when P5 bets small is to win doubled bet, which on average is successful 31% of time. P5 won’t lose to P1 (doubling or splitting anything) almost 70% of time but would still be susceptible to some wins by P3 and P4. From the 70% we need to deduct occurrences of P1 losing his doubled bet but P3 winning his doubled bet and P5 not winning (pushes or loses) at the same time. That leaves P5 with about 62%-65%, and if everything holds okay for P5 till that point, we still need to deduct cases of P4 winning his doubled bet and P5 not winning doubled bet (if he doubles at all). Relatively high correlation between hands is mostly due to dealer’s strong hands. My guess is that Player #5 betting $75 would be successful about 55% of times, higher if opponents don’t realize that they have to double/split any hand. Now let’s check the “Big Bet”. If Player #5 wins her big bet she is a lock regardless whether her opponents win their doubled bets or not. If P5 pushes she is vulnerable only to P1, P3 and P4 winning their doubled bets. If P5 loses her bet then any player winning his single bet overcomes her. Worth noting is that it would be easier for P1 to defeat P5 by using playing strategy that enhance chances to swing her. But P1 needs to be concerned about other players as well, which will most likely cause him to double/split almost any hand. It is a similar situation with P3’s play and to a smaller degree with P4’s play. In most cases Player 5 can increase her chances of advancing, not by sticking to playing in accordance to basic strategy, but rather by playing “no bust strategy”. In effect, Player #5 betting more than $400 would be successful over 80% of times. S. Yama
Reply to oneyedjacks 5th post, first round question. #3 can still have the low if they all lose, by making a $305 bet can still advance should both #1 and #3 both win, (#3 by $5 for 2nd). This just give #3 more opportunity to advance either by high or low, #3 shouldn't worry about them doubling down, splitting, or hitting a blackjack, they haven't got enough chips to cover those and protect low. By playing the $305 I feel gives them the best chance for #3 to advance to the next round. This advice is just what I would have done and I try to explain why. Unless someone is paying your way in the tournaments play the way you feel is right for you. Please remember not one player I know has gone without making a betting mistake at sometime in a tournament, it happens and in the presser of a final table with only 10 – 30 seconds to decide it is easy to make a mistake. On the Semifinal round, #4 made their betting mistake, lucky for her it didn't cost her. You can read about my latest tournament in the newbie section, since that is how I played one of the hands.
******* I do appreciate everyone's responses. This Tourney stuff can give you a cheap rush, been awhile.
