Elimination Blackjack: Skill or Luck?

fgk42 · Sep 10, 2007

Club UBT Newsletter said:

Elimination Blackjack: Skill or Luck?
By ‘Hollywood’ Dave Stann

By this point, most of you have had the chance to experience the newest craze to hit the blackjack world since the invention of the double down – it's called Elimination Blackjack and it's here to stay! ClubUBT is the online home of Elimination Blackjack tournaments, so now anyone can practice for free around the clock, or join up and play for real cash and prizes, which means that as the player fields continue to grow, the competition will become more and more fierce to land those coveted top few spots in every tourney that hold the highest reward!

What does this influx of new players mean for the game? Everyone knows the rules of blackjack, but as more people catch on to the EBJ craze, it can certainly feel as if your chances of winning over a big field are no better than finding a needle in a haystack. On the contrary, this is where having more skill in the game really comes into play.

Unlike traditional blackjack tournaments, in which players typically lay low until the last 2-3 hands and then all shoot for the lead at once, the forced eliminations that pop up every eight hands or so in EBJ tourneys give you more opportunities to catch unskillful opponents off guard and send them packing! I think of a 30-hand EBJ round as a series of four mini-tournaments: hands 1-8, 9-16, 17-25, and the 5-hand endgame. On any given hand, I’m worried only about making it alive to the next mini-tournament. Nothing else matters, which means recognizing 1) what position in the betting order I’ll be in on the Elimination Hand, and 2) how many chips I have in relation to the other players.

The rule of thumb is, the earlier your position on the Elimination Hand, the more chips you’ll need in relation to everyone else. Conversely, the later you’ll be in position, the more wiggle room you have to just sit back and let other players take all the risk. There’s nothing like watching your competition kill themselves trying to gain position for an Elim Hand while you just coast to the finish line! The biggest mistake I see players making online is getting too aggressive at the WRONG time. There’s no point coming out of the gate swinging with huge bets when you’ll have great position on an upcoming Elimination Hand. Plus, there are plenty of times when you already have MORE chips than anyone else, regardless of position, so why risk making a big bet when you don’t have to?

Probably the clearest difference between players who rely on skill vs. those who depend on luck is most apparent on the Elimination Hand itself. The ability to out-think and out-bet your opponents at that moment makes all the difference between advancing to the next mini-tournament or round, and being out of the game altogether! A skilled player looks for opportunities to make a bet that generates ultimate flexibility. In the play of the hands, most players on the table will have the same result, meaning that they’ll win or lose their hands at the same time. So assume this will happen and make a bet that puts you somewhere in the middle of the pack whether or not everyone wins or loses their bet!

Of course, sometimes you have to bet first and don’t know how other people will bet. This is why a skillful player strives to have more chips than the other players in this situation, to compensate for having to bet from earlier position. Two helpful ideas to keep in mind here are, 1) bet enough to cover a double-up by the guy in last place, or 2) bet your lead over the guy in 2nd-to-last place. Both of these strategies are effective ways to make it out of the Elim Hand alive.

The bottom line is, we all get lucky or unlucky at about the same rate as everyone else. Although we can’t control how lucky we’ll get in an EBJ tourney, we can control how much skill we bring to the table. The same luck plus more skill equals winning more tournaments than those who rely on luck alone … so always remember to think through each betting and playing decision and your results can’t help but be better than those around you.

All skill, baby!

-hd.
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Well I gotta give Dave credit where credit is due. Well written, concise good beginners article. I hope his book is done as well as this straight forward little clip.

However while this is good advice when playing against "novice" players. Anyone who has played in very many final tables or against more "experienced" players will find a "flaw" with this article.

Any guesses?

toonces · Sep 10, 2007

Well, I don't know what you noticed, Fred. But I had a problem with the implication that nothing else other than surviving the elimination hand matters. Clearly, there is an advantage in emerging out of the elimination hand with a lead, and if you emerge short-stacked, you are usually in big trouble.

Barney Stone · Sep 10, 2007

I dont know if this guy has ever played a "traditional" BJT game. I have never been lucky enough to play a game where the players all wait til the last 2-3 hands to shoot it out. I find the wildcats burying me first half and if they dont make it the seasoned players start passing you at 1/2-2/3 the game. If I have played a game where I could just wait til the last 3 hands I cant remember it!

fgk42 · Sep 10, 2007

Barney Stone said: ↑

If I have played a game where I could just wait til the last 3 hands I cant remember it!
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What about the one time you won over at Blackjack21.com without even showing up? Remember THAT one?

fgk42 · Sep 10, 2007

toonces said: ↑

Well, I don't know what you noticed, Fred. But I had a problem with the implication that nothing else other than surviving the elimination hand matters. Clearly, there is an advantage in emerging out of the elimination hand with a lead, and if you emerge short-stacked, you are usually in big trouble.
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Touche. One point for you.

I also slightly disagreeded with one other point.

Overall I enjoyed the article and for players NEW to BJT.com I thought it was a great primer.

Not as good as Ken's e-book, but I wanted to give HD credit - seriously!

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