Hand 8 – Elimination Hand BR2 55,000 bets 5,000 first BR1 60,000 bets 5,000 second BR3 25,000 bets BRL 24,000 All secret bets have been used. Assume that this is a final table. max bet 25,000 min bet 500 BRL bets after BR3 and has been correlating with BR3 most of the prior 7 hands. What would you bet as BR3? Why?
This equates to a 2 player race. Given the situation, playing strategy is identical to a final hand where only 2 players are involved. Bet the minimum (you did not mention the betting range). Since you can't take both the high and low, simply take the low (that low being between BR3 and BRL) and keep your fingers crossed.
I'm all-in here. Yes, the low will survive the hand slightly more frequently. But the high and the low are quite close in survival percentage. High: BR3 survives with win/* and push/lose. Low: BR3 survives with */push and */lose. However, this is hand 8, and your other opponents are substantially ahead. If you survive by taking the low, you'll still likely have to make a large bet later to catch them. If you survive by taking the high, you're already back in contention.
well... Since it's early in the game I'd be likely to take the low road. If it were later, say hand 25, on I'd probably go large, maybe all in, since there would be an advantage to doubling up. I'm almost certainly going to have to place a max bet at some point to catch up with BR1 and BR2 so now is as good a time as any. If I were to split my BR and lose I'd be in a bad place even if I avoided the drop. Cheers Reachy
If the play of BR1 & BR2 was extremely agressive/wild/erratic - such as betting 20,000 one hand and 10,000 the next, would it have any influence on your decision to go all in on hand 8, knowing that the next elimination hand is 16?
Deja Vu This situation is virtually identical to one in which I made an error afew nights ago in a $5 satellite. BR1 and BR2 had made aggressive bets to get their leads but sat on them the last few hands. I took the low road to survive the elim but blew out a max bet trying to catch up a few hands later. If you're going to have to make a big bet to win the game you may as well go all in on the elim hand. You're a 56% favorite to survive the elim if you take the low but only a 56 * 44 = 25% underdog to first survive and then catch up. For me this was a costly error because as it turned out I won the min bet on the elim hand (I swung LB1.)
My thoughts on the low I'm not experienced at EBJ but here are my thoughts. I realize that at some point, in the near future, I'll have to make a catch-up bet. My philosophy is that I'd rather do that on "my terms" rather than being forced to do it at some time dictated by others. My thinking is that my first priority is to survive and, by taking the low, I don't have to win to do that . BR1 and BR2 are well ahead but not insurmountable and who knows what will happen in the next 6 hands or so. They may get into a betting war and open the door for me. Of course that betting war could work against me but that's the chance one takes in any BJ tournament.
My thought patterns are really wacko. I don't like to go all-in at this juncture because like toolman I think there is still a lot of time. The lead by BR1 and BR2 really isn't all that great with a 25,000 max bet. Statistically I'd like to believe that if I bet 500 the dealer will win and I'd have the next 8 hands to "catch my prey". Unfortunately for me whenever I just min bet my opponents bet 2,000 and the dealer busts! Mr Murphy follows me around like my shadow. So for purely psychological reasons taking a 500 bet doesn't sit well with me. My first inclination is to bet 12,500 - 1/2 max bet. Two reasons for this choice: 1. It is going to "force" BRL into either an all-in bet or to take the min bet. Sure they "could" match me or even bet 14,000 but they they can't split and most players in that situation, in my experience with eBJ, just go all-in. Therefore if I get a stiff I can always surrender and still have some "ammo" in my guns. However this puts me at a severe disadvantage. 2. I also have the possibility of a split or dd especially if BRL goes all-in. So 1/2 max bet gives ME possibilities and places the max/min decision on BRL. Now my second inclination is to bet 5000. Why? It corrolates with BR1 and BR2. I'm leaving the window open for BRL to take the high or low. It has been my experience that an "out in left field" bet like 4,500 at an elimination hand just confuses the heck out of the newer/inexperienced players. It's almost like they feel "ok, what's the catch?" It has been my experience that few BRL, in this case, would take the low given to them. In fact I would wager to say that 75% would bet 6,000 or even all in. It just seems like EBJ has "taught" more agression in betting. (just MY PERSONAL OPINION ) So if BRL tries to take the high I can always split or DD. If the dealer does THEIR job I simply surrender or stand. I understand the all-in bets and don't disagree with them but once again my goal in EBJ is to SURVIVE the EH's. In fact I don't care how far ahead BR1 is especially at final tables where the max bet is 100,000! What I would like to see is the stat people determine the optimal bet based on expected outcome.
voodoo One can often get a sense of impotence with a minimum bet since there is little we can do to influence the outcome of the hand once we've placed the bet, so I do understand where you are coming from. Going all in also seems to open you up to the fickle finger of fate since you have to win to stand any chance and since we don't want to appear "ploppy-ish" it almost feels like it's not a "skillfull" move If you bet $12.5K as BR3 I could bet $10K as BR4. That way I have the low, I lock you out of surrender since I could surrender over the top of you, and I could double to beat a single bet win by you. My BJ also wins. If you bet $5K then a bet by BR4 of $11.5K or more takes the high with no chance of BR3 doubling out of it. BR4 could also bet the min to prevent BR3 surrender and of course taking the low. The problem with middle-sized bets is that they leave you heavily compromised if you lose but survive. OK, there is a slim chance you could make it back but it is very slim. If you bet 12.5K and lose but survive and BR1 and 2 win you would need 2 all-in bets to get within striking distance and the chances of you busting out would be about 73% if you went all-in on 2 consecutive hands. Cheers Reachy
My dear British friend - I concur wholeheartly with your post. I can not and will not dispute your conclusions because I agree!. Alas, for THAT very reason I will NOT play at a table with YOU! :laugh: You're too darn smart for some ploppy like me! While your calculations ARE correct from a reality standpoint there are very few people playing online EBJ that would be able to calculate those numbers within the 45 seconds alloted. Now before everyone here starts in on me I didn't say EVERYONE. There are several players who I've played against, Ken Smith for example, that could calculate those numbers in under 20 seconds. Other BJT.com members who I've played against can likewise do the same - so for THOSE players no, I would be more likely to either max bet or min bet. Unlike most others here, I guage me betting to two things: 1. My BR and that of my opponents 2. My opponents playing styles There is much more that I use but I choose not to divulge any more information at this time.
I agree with Ken's thoughts entirely. Let's say that you have a 60% chance of pulling ahead of BR1 or BR2 in time. If you allow BRL to get the high, your chances of pulling ahead of BR1 or BR2 ar 56% * 60% or 33%, since you have to survive the elimination hand AND then beat BR1 or BR2. And that assumes that your opps betting is so erratic that you have a 60% chance to catch up. If you bet big in one shot, what you have done is correlated the two events you need to 100%, so you only need the 44% chance of winning to take a lead.
All in... They both bet low so its the perfect oppurtunity. If you lose you get eliminated, but if you bet low, you could still get eliminated if BR2 bets a little higher anyway. If you win the hand, youre definately not eliminated (excluding bj by brl) and you've greatly decreased your gap. I'm just a newbie too but I think I'd rather take my big chances ON the elimination hands. Because you are likely to take some chance of being eliminated on the elimination hand no matter what, so why let your self survive only to have to take another chance later? If you bet low and survive the elimination hand you'll have to make a big bet to catch them and then youre taking another chance of being eliminated. my 2 cents, Rounder21
