Just played a game at bet21.com and got eliminated (bah!) I am BR2 acting last: BR1 22,500 BR2 17,250 BR1 6500 BR2 12000 BR1 - 8 BR2 - 12 Dealer - 2 BR1 - Doubles, card dealt face down BR2 - ? 2 Questions: 1st - Better bet? 2nd - Best action? I've done the sums for best action but would like to confirm them before I reveal all Cheers Reachy
On the best bet (#1): There's no way to cover a DD by BR1, and you can't bet the min or else he will surrender trap you. By not betting it all, you have the option to surrender low if he doubles down. However, you can bet exactly $15,500 you get that option and in addition can cover a BJ by BR1. On the best bet (#2): Since a DD won't help your options are to hit or surrender. If the dealer busts, you lose regardless. Hitting works if you draw to 17 or better and you win while he loses/ties or if you tie while he loses. Surrender wins if the dealer makes a number and he loses. Without running the numbers, since you have to assume the dealer will not bust (or else it is all irrelevant), I would have to say your best chance is to hope he cannot tie or beat the dealer with his DD, and therefore surrender.
Excellent You spotted the trap, I nearly didn't. I don't think it was a purposeful trap though, more like a bet that would allow a DD to cover an all-in win by me. Could be wrong though. I like the $15,500 bet. Incidentally, Chances of winning: Stand: 0% Hit to 17: 18.54% Surrender: 52.03% As you have probably guessed I surrendered, dealer bust, I lost. Arse!!!! Cheers Reachy
Reachy, Good posting - I'll be interested in seeing other responses. I'm going to do the math later and so I'm going to put my .02 now regarding best action: Your choice: 1. DD - Wouldn't recommend - what do you have to gain? If you both win you lose. 2. Hitting to a stiff - in this case you hoping to win and that BR1 loses. Lets assume BR1 has an 18. The dealer has to beat an 18 so hitting to 17 or 18 isn't a good option. Hitting to 19-21 is the only option here. A possible solution 3. Surrender - Here's where I think I would have gone - by surrender and having the dealer beat BR1 you win. What if BR1's dd was a tiny card? This, in my opinion, has the most promise - but you're praying for the dealer to do the work. So either hit or surrender. I would have surrendered. Now I'll go do the math and probably find out how bad a choice that was.
Your opponent made a pretty good bet and play given he's on the button. With his bet and play, it doesn't give you much option, but surrender, which I think gives you the best chance to advance. I would have done the same thing if I were in your place.
