So here's the situation from last night: Hand 23 of a 2-advance round. I am last to act for this hand, but first for the final hand. No Secret bets remain. Betting: BR1: $52,000 bets $5,000 BR3: $20,500 bets $10,000 ME: $30,250 bets $10,500 Dealer: 9 BR1: Stands on 20 BR2: Gets dealt 99. Splits it into a 20 and a stiff. ME: Dealt a T8. Question 1: Approve or disapprove of the $10,500 bet? Question 2: Stand or Surrender?
1. I also like the bet very much. 2. I do NOT surrender, I stand. If I lose, then the best BR3 can do is win/lose for a push, and I'm just a wee bit behind with him betting before me on the next hand. If I push, then he also pushes and I'm still ahead. Whatever happens, the worst I can be is a very little bit behind if I stand on the 18.
1. Not sure I like the $10.5K bet as much as the others. 2. Without resorting to excel I'd agree with Leftnut and stand Cheers Reachy
Also can't be sure the $10,500 was best without knowing what the MAX bet is. Knowledge of the max bet is needed to set a goal of how much of a lead is needed over BR3 when the play gets to the last hand. The max bet is obviously more than $10,000 so what is the max bet?
25k The max bet is 25,000. I prefer a bet of 9,500. You're still ahead by the magic number of 8750 if you both win. You still have the lead if you lose/push. You've got nearly double BR3's bankroll if you both lose. I called 8750 the magic number because it allows you to take a high and surrender to cover a push on the last hand. I don't like surrender here. If you surrender and the dealer breaks you're hurting bad. If you stand pat the worst thing that can happen to you is to get behind by a tiny amount. You have position for one more hand to try to retake the lead if that happens.
Toonces said it was from last night...so we're assuming it's either Club UBT or Bet21 with 25,000 max. But your point is well taken. Sometimes we just take for granted there as of now - online EBJ is the only game in town
leonardo Colin, some chapters can only be read when I'm excited (or just as I wake up), that may be one of them. Alternatively it could be on my fanny and I don'y have a full length mirror. Cheers Reachy PS. US readers please note: the "fanny" comment is much funnier in English as to us it refers to something females possess and males don't. And it's not knockers...
Tounces best bet I assume you bet the $10,500 to cover a DD win by BR3. But I like the $9,500 to cover the push by BR3. If you felt that covering the DD was the most important move you could still DD for a $1,000 to have that covered. I would stand. tgun
I chose the $10,500 bet because according to articles in Ken's book, it's more important to cover a win vs. double win scenario than it is to cover a lose vs. tie scenario which happens pretty rarely. I also had a chance to surrender if the lose/tie is seeming too likely. When the actual hands got delat out, the lose/tie was looking pretty likely. But since there was only one dealer number I feared (and I would only be $1000 down), I chose not to surrender and risk the big swing of a dealer bust or 17.
Covering The Double In The Last Few Hands That's a good answer. Some opponents when trailing double aggressively by the third last hand. Some don't. Anyone have numbers for how often a player wins a double down when using basic strategy?
Here are some results from some sim software I had lying around... A basic strategy player in an S17 6 deck game, gets the following outcomes: Loses 4 or more bets: 0.06% Loses 3 bets: 0.21% Loses 2 bets: 4.43% Loses 1 bet: 43.16% Pushes: 8.76% Wins 1 bet: 32.39% Wins 1.5 bets: 4.52% Wins 2 bets: 6.12% Wins 3 bets: 0.25% Wins 4 or more bets: 0.10% These are rounded, and likely don't add up to 100% exactly. I also only ran 3 million hands, but these figures should be quite close. So, a basic strategy player will win two or more bets 6.12 + 0.25 + 0.10 = 6.47% of the time.
Doubling So if the lose-push happens to you 7% and the BS double happens 6% for your opponent, you would cover the lose-push, but only if you're absolutely sure your opponent won't double more than BS suggests. Since you're never absolutely sure about anything an opponent will do you can assume they'll double at least somewhat more aggressively than BS suggests. That means they probably have a somewhat better chance of catching you by winning the double down than of catching you by the lose-push. It's better to cover the double down than the lose-push in the late hands.
