Here is partial exchange I had with Thomas Lu on Wongs bj21 tournaments page which is now defunct and I believe not accessable from all computers. There were only a few readers of this and I hope Thomas don't mind my reposting it. What is the strategy for BR* on the next-to-last hand? If I am BR* before the next-to-last hand but ahead not enough to cover the competitors' winning. What is the best bet for me? In wang's book "casino tournament strategy" the best bet is to hold a chip more than that "most serious competitor" has and bet the balance of my bankroll. What means "most serious competitor" here? If there are more than one opponents those are close to me, and one bets small and the other bets big, how should I bet? I have following example: one winner: Min 5 Max 500 BR1(me): 800 bet: ? BR2: 750 bet: 5 BR3: 600 bet: 500 What is the best bet for the above example? Thank you in advace. ThomasLu XXXXXXX For your example, bet small. Betting big and losing would put you hopelessly behind BR2. But if you bet small and BR3 wins, you still have a chance. So bet small and stay with BR2. Stanford Wong XXXXXXX One more question Thank you so much for your reply, Wong. Do you mind that I ask you one more question? If my example changes a bit: if there are more opponents those are not out of the competition but bet also big as following: one winner: Min 5 Max 500 BR1(me): 800 bet: ? BR2: 750 bet: 5 BR3: 600 bet: 500 BR4: 590 Bet: 500 BR5: 580 Bet: 400 What is the best bet for me? Thank you once again! ThomasLu XXXXXXX What are you going to do with the answer? Thomas, What are you going to do with the answer? How precise the answer would need to be? You are coming up with more and more detailed situations. It is okay to discuss a very specific case of the actual events. But why make up cases that you won’t remember a few months down the tournament road. Try to generalize, start with the least complicated setting, work with min bets, max bets, and bets that gain/retain a lead. Consider differences in bankrolls of less, or more than one half of maximum bet allowed. Start with just two players, then three, then most likely a multiple players (five) set-up covers the rest. Once you know and recognize those situation regardless of actual numbers move on to differences of more than one max bet, than the combinations of them – but master simpler situations first. One of the most important skills is the ability to recognize situations correctly. Your last request actually asks for a right play when you have most chips and betting last; One player takes low and the other (three players) bet more than your lead. The general rule is that the more players make bets that could make them surpass you the more likely you need to make a big bet yourself. Hope it helps, S. Yama XXXXXXX Thanks Hi Yama, Thanks for your suggestion. I'm joining more and more tournaments, analyze the situation what I met and try to improve m still. But I have also met some difficulty, what I can't resolve and post here to hope some experienced persons could help me. My difficulty is especially on "Next-to-Last hand" if I am leader. The situation happened very often: I am BR1. And BR2 close to me bets small to wait for the big bet on the FINAL hand. But BR3, BR4 etc., who bet ahead of me, will bet big enough to cover me. What is the best bet then? -- Such situation is what I really want to ask. Wong's book analyse the FINAL hand very detailedly, but for "Next-to-Last Hand" related simple. Not same as FINAL hand you don't have to be the BR* on the next-to-last hand, but also different from previous hands you have no many chances to catch the leader. This is why I feel confounded. Thomas XXXXXXX Hang in there. Thomas, I don’t know your circumstances, so please allow me hypothesize a bit. I think you are not as much confounded but rather frustrated with the results. Your results may be quite good but your expectation higher than the reality would allow. Results in tournament blackjack carry a high variance. For example, once, I didn’t qualify to a second round (mostly two players were advancing) in twelve out of thirteen rounds. But also, at another time, I made finals in seven consecutive tournaments I played, winning two of them. Gotta roll with the punches. When I titled my previous post “What are you going to do with the answer” I was trying to say that specific answers are not that important. Perhaps you and many other aspiring tournament players should be rather asking “why”. This is in order to gain a full(er) understanding of tournaments and work on being able to analyze them on the fly as situations change, and they do change a lot. There are no magic formulas that many are looking for. 1. There are some useful rules and dry but reliable percentage numbers, but usually they are affixed to very specific situations and changing, or adding, even one element can make those rules incorrect. 2. Often times the differences are small or altogether insignificant but “the tradition” or “casino-hall wisdom” would make you believe that one play is decisively better than the other. 3. There are many theories that are altogether false. World of tournament blackjack is full of old myths and with growing popularity of televised tournaments and creation of latest “experts” it is inescapable to encounter new comments with little veracity to them. 4. There are very different right plays for different players. By formulating broader questions you will get a better picture and discover the real inner workings that could be used in other tournament situations as well. In your particular case you could ask: Is a small or a big bet better and why? How big, how small? To get those answers you would need to include subquestion of what would be your betting position (this was not clear in your post) and its effect on your play? Then wonder - How much would your opponents change their basic strategy play to increase doubling or to make plays “to gain”? If it is so important and consequential for them to change their play how much should you change your play? And so on. Finally, after playing a round you have to completely disregard what actually happened. Only playing thousands similar situations could bear any statistical meaning. But always ask yourself could I have played better, how and why? Do you realize that with four other players, even if you were BR1, but betting last on next-to-last hand (which is as bad as betting first on last hand) - you are not better than average to win when one player advances. That means about four out of five times you will not advance, that’s 80%, that’s a lot, and you will have to live with it. But hang in there. Sometimes you win (to slightly balance it out) when it seemed someone else should have won. With you inquisitiveness you skills will grow and tournament wins with them – I am sure of it, S. Yama PS Sorry for a preaching tone and winding style. I had an hour to kill or I felt like rather doing this than something else.
