Here is the final hand of today's Game Master tournament on Global-Player.com Here is what the hand looked like.The question I'm asking what should he have done with his hand Last Hand min. bet 5 max bet 200 Surrender is available Game Master bets first His bankroll is 562.50 Player 2 has 500 Gamemaster bets 65 is dealt 10-3 Player 2 bets 200 is dealt A-9 Dealers up card is 6 What should Gamemaster do with his hand I will tell you this I was watching the hand live and knew what he did was wrong, but the only one who figured it out correctly was Walt. Good job WH The second part to this teaser is . Was his bet the best bet he could have made ? Joep2
Hit or surrender - about the same Let me take a stab at this. You guys can make minced meat of of this but that's OK. First off, I just want to say that I don’t play the Global Player tournaments and therefore do not know the number of decks used or the rules. Therefore, the probabilities I list below are approximate. QUESTION 1: Gamemaster has 4 possible plays: 1) STAND. With Gamemaster standing on 13, the only way he could win the table is if the dealer draws to exactly 21. About a 10% probability. 2) SURRENDER. Surrendering leaves him in a better position. Now he wins the table if the dealer draws to a 20 or 21. About a 20% probability. 3) HIT. Try to hit to 20 or 21. Don’t know the probability on this but I would guess it would be around 20% - which would also win him the table . 4) DOUBLE. Doubling will not leave him in any better position than hitting. Therefore, doubling is out. My conclusion, best play is to hit until 20 or 21 is achieved or surrender. One of these 2 is slightly better but since I can’t make exact calculations, I don’t know which. How close am I? Question 2: It seems to me that Gamemaster’s best bet would be “twice his lead less 5” or 120. He can then surrender while keeping the low and opens the possibility of a double to win the table if Player 2 wins a single max bet. Had he bet 120, he could have doubled his hand with a 35% probability of winning the table. How close am I? Got to go now. I already missed the first ½ of the 3CP tournament on GSN. DAMN!!!
Since winning $65 or a double of $130 are both meaningless, he should surrender to cover BR2's possible push. There are several better bets, starting with $60 instead of $65. (Then how he plays the hand would have been truly meaningless, as long as he doesn't double!) Depending on who is playing behind me, my bet is either $120 (toolman's recommendation) or $70 (surr trap). Too bad GM didn't have an extra $5 lead. Then he could have bet $135 from his $67.50 lead and had first high and surrender first low.
I got it 1/2 right (probably) Hi I figured the best move to be a surrender because as Ken says you win if P2 pushes or loses. However I think I got my bet sizing wrong based on what has been posted already. I thought that a 170 bet (Max bet - (lead/2) + min bet) would be best because it gives you the high against a max bet win and you can double to beat a GM BJ or DD. If P2 takes the low a single bet win by GM beats BJ and DD plus you can surrender to take the retake the low. What are the pitfalls of this bet size? Also I haven't heard the rule of betting twice your lead minus a chip. I can see how you can use it to take the low with a surrender if P2 bets the minimum, obviously you have the low if they max bet but then you have to double to beat a P2 max bet win. I must be missing something here Cheers Reachy
BR1's lead isn't big enough to have it both ways. If you must choose having the high vs the low in a two man race, the low is slightly better. The trouble with a 170 bet is that your opponent can then take the low by betting $20 or less. That covers a surrender by BR1. There's actually a more sophisticated bet for BR2 here. If BR2 bets $40, BR1 still can't surrender because BR2 will surrender behind him. However, BR2 gets a free double to try to beat a BR1 push. Another bet BR1 might consider is $140, to take first high without being able to cover a double by BR2. Unfortunately, that still gives BR2 the low if he wants it by betting $5. $170 is better than $140. If BR1 has confidence that BR2 is going to bet big regardless, a $170 or bigger bet is great. But if BR2 is likely to take the low if it is offered, BR1 is better off with the smaller bets noted earlier in the thread.
betting twice your lead minus a chip The "betting twice your lead minus a chip" is a form of a surrender trap. You can read more details about it in Wong's book -page 146 starting with the section titled "LAST HAND". If I'm not mistaken, MIT Mike used this strategy effectively in the first WSOB. This will always give you the low (if you are BR1) if you want it but as Ken Smith said - you can't have it both ways. The thing that I like about this bet is that it sets you up for a way to win - all be it small at times as this thread demonstrates - in most situations (except if your opponent max bets and gets a BJ). Also it's easy to remember and us Alzheimer people love that.:laugh:
Play of the hand The play of your hand when you bet double your lead minus a chip is important. After the cards come out you decide if you play the hand out or surrender. If your probability of losing is greater than your opponent's probability of winning, you surrender. If GM had been able to make that kind of bet, and had made it, he definitely would've had to wave off instead of surrendering.
